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FlipFlop
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04-23-2005, 03:50 AM
Post subject: Did i calculate the odds right?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 10
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Im just wondering if im doing the odds correctly
Say i have AA and the flop comes J, T, 8. I want to know the odds of hitting trips on the turn
56 cards minus the 2 i hold and 3 on the board= 51
Of the 51 cars, there are 2 more A that can help me and 49 that wont, so would the odds of hitting trips on the turn be 49:2 (24.5:1)?
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Shark Bait
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 481
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Most decks have 52 cards. That's a good place to start.
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eeeee
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04-23-2005, 04:31 AM
Post subject: Re: Did i calculate the odds right?
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#3 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 906
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by FlipFlop
Im just wondering if im doing the odds correctly
Say i have AA and the flop comes J, T, 8. I want to know the odds of hitting trips on the turn
[52] cards minus the 2 i hold and 3 on the board= [47]
Of the [47] cars, there are 2 more A that can help me and [45] that wont, so would the odds of hitting trips on the turn be [45:2 (22.5:1)]?
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Yes, you have the concept. I corrected your math to reflect a 52 card deck.
This is the same as "counting outs". How many "outs" do you have to improve your hand? In this example, 2. So you have 2/45th chance to improve your hand next card.
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I'm a know-it-all.
No, really.
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FlipFlop
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 10
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i forgot it starts from 2 and not 1  . I got a little too ahead of myself.
I just picked up Winning Low Limit Hold'em by Lee Jones today and it really explains things very well. When i tried reading about odds/propabilities online, my head was spinning. I think it was due to so much info. He really dumbed down the section for me to where i could understand it.
One more question and ill leave you guys alone for now....
in the book he says that there should be atleast 3 times as much $ in the pot as the amount you must call and he uses a 3:1 draw as an example with a pot that contains $21 ($15 +$6 bet from opponent). This would lay you 3.5:1, so you would bet.
Using the example in my original post, trips A, would the pot have to have 3 times more than $22.5 for me bet??
Im just going based on his theory
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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if you have AA on that flop, then you don't need to catch another ace to win. your hand is probably the best so you should bet/raise to protect it.
if you have 22/33/44/55/66/77 on that flop, then you need the pot to be laying you 22:1 to continue. the "1" is the amount you must call, which is $0.25 in a $0.25/$0.50 limit game. the "22" is 22 x $0.25 or $5.50.
the pot is virtually NEVER that big on the flop. so just remember, if you have an underpair to the flop, fold it immediately (or bluff at having top pair). do NOT chase your set to the turn. this is a huge leak.
ChezJ
p.s., next time you are faced with only 2 outs, just tell yourself "two, two-two." (2 outs = 22:1.) if you use this mnemonic trick, you won't ever have to calculate the odds for this kind of draw again.
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FlipFlop
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 10
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Thanks ChezJ. I know AA would already be best bet, but i was just using the AA as an example for 3 of a kind.
1)So if he raised me .25 more cents, making the call .50 there would have to be $11 (22x.5) in the pot for me to call, correct?
2)Also, the odds of hitting that 3rd card for trips on the turn is about 22:1. Lets say the turn comes and i didnt get the 3rd card. So to calcute the odds of hitting it on the river, how would i do it?'
I just thought it would be 52 cards minus 2 in hand plus 4 on the board = 46 cards. 2 of the 46 will help and 44 wont. so the odds would be 44:2 or 22:1 (still the same as before seeing the turn)
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ManhattanMan
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 40
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Yes, you are correct. On the turn card (2/47), you have a 4.255% chance of hitting the set, and on the river (2/46) you have a 4.347% chance. While the odds are slightly better on the river because there is one less card in the deck, it's not really enough to ever make a difference.
As a practical matter, if you are in a game with a lot of callers, and you have a pair of Aces, Kings, Queens, and even Jacks, the fact that there are other callers may indicate that there's a slightly smaller chance that you are going to hit your set.
The reasoning: More players will play hands like AT, JT, QT, than hands like 3-6, or 4-7. For the same reason, let's say you have AA, and the flop comes 10-3-3. In this case, there's probably a smaller chance that someone is out there with three 3's, than if the flop was 10-J-J. However, this assumes people play fairly well pre-flop (ie. they aren't going to play something like 4-8 in early, or middle position). If you have really loose players who will play Ace-anything or King-anything (which is very frequent online), all this is irrelevant.
Again, this shouldn't really enter into your thinking much at all, as it doesn't really affect strategic play. Without proper odds (which basically never happens in No Limit, unless you have a very passive and loose table), you should never chase a set past the flop. There have been several times in No Limit tournaments where I've folded small pairs when there has been a big raise to my right - it's just too costly to play.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shark Bait
Most decks have 52 cards. That's a good place to start.
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You're forgetting four more aces.
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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Quote:
Most decks have 52 cards. That's a good place to start.
You're forgetting four more aces.
-'rilla
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And the two jokers.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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FlipFlop
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 10
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Thanks for the replies
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