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Kid Style
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08-07-2008, 02:19 AM
Post subject: Dealt 3 Pocket Pairs, Flopped 3 Sets. What are the chances?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 59
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I was playing my weekly home game and on the first three hands, my friend was dealt three pocket pairs...99, 44, and QQ respectively. She flopped sets on all three of those hands!! Kudos to someone who can come up with the math and display it in chance percentage or "# to 1" form of being dealt 3 pocket pairs and flopping 3 sets! I am just curious. I'm thinking it's around 20,000 to 1 or something like that...never seen this in my 2 years of playing!
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
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Who cares
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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JinxT4
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 265
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50/50. Either it happens, or it doesn't.
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[04:18] <+Bbickes> do u has teh agoraphobia?
[04:18] <+fat> im agressive yes
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Squeaky_Midget1
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 126
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Live poker is so rigged
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Ironically,
The odds of that happening are the same as her catching those 4 pocket pairs and NOT getting a set,
Or having the first one miss, but the middle one hit, but the last one miss.
DUCY?
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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0.000000273359449
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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The odds of that happening are about 3.65 million to 1.
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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BTW the odds of her being dealt 3 pp's in a row and not flopping a set with any of them is a tad less than 7000 : 1.
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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so you will now go 3.65 million times being dealt 3 pocket pairs without flopping a set
STBY
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
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0 if you're me
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer
so you will now go 3.65 million times being dealt 3 pocket pairs without flopping a set
STBY
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No, the chances of you getting dealt pocket pairs in each of three consecutive hands and flopping a set each time are 3.65e6:1
The odds of having 3 consecutive PPs and NOT flopping a set with any of them are 7000:1 against. The clarification I would like to get however is if the meaning of this is that every 7000 hands you expect this to happen once or every 7000 iterations of 3 hands (or 21,000 hands) you expect this to happen once.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by overflow
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer
so you will now go 3.65 million times being dealt 3 pocket pairs without flopping a set
STBY
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No, the chances of you getting dealt pocket pairs in each of three consecutive hands and flopping a set each time are 3.65e6:1
The odds of having 3 consecutive PPs and NOT flopping a set with any of them are 7000:1 against. The clarification I would like to get however is if the meaning of this is that every 7000 hands you expect this to happen once or every 7000 iterations of 3 hands (or 21,000 hands) you expect this to happen once. |
ok my maths is ropey at best but surely you can just repeat each iteration or whatever every hand. ie your second - fourth hands of the day this happens doesn't count as a fail so you'd expect it to happen once every 7k hands amiright?
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
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why was he dealt three hands at the same time?
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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Kid Style
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 59
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by overflow
The odds of that happening are about 3.65 million to 1.
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WOW! Thank you for the answer overflow  I didn't think the odds were that serious!!
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Kid Style
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 59
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
why was he dealt three hands at the same time?
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No the first three hands in our home game, she was dealt 3 pocket pairs and all 3 times she flopped sets.
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sil693
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Birmingham, UK
Posts: 609
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kid Style
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
why was he dealt three hands at the same time?
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No the first three hands in our home game, she was dealt 3 pocket pairs and all 3 times she flopped sets. |
i lol'd irl.
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Kid Style
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 59
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sil693
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kid Style
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
why was he dealt three hands at the same time?
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No the first three hands in our home game, she was dealt 3 pocket pairs and all 3 times she flopped sets. |
i lol'd irl. |
I thought it was quite hilarious too actually. Once she was dealt hand #3 she started cracking up pre-flop as well.
BTW, we've been playing for 2 years and she happens to be a losing player, so I hardly doubt the hands were rigged. But you never know....
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Irisheyes
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: over there
Posts: 3,708
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kid Style
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sil693
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kid Style
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
why was he dealt three hands at the same time?
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No the first three hands in our home game, she was dealt 3 pocket pairs and all 3 times she flopped sets. |
i lol'd irl. |
I thought it was quite hilarious too actually. Once she was dealt hand #3 she started cracking up pre-flop as well.
BTW, we've been playing for 2 years and she happens to be a losing player, so I hardly doubt the hands were rigged. But you never know.... |
Wow, you take toilet breaks and stuff though right?? Man I love poker and all but I don't think I could play for that long. How many games is that!?
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
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iRICHeyes would know.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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1 in 1
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kid Style
Quote:
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Originally Posted by overflow
The odds of that happening are about 3.65 million to 1.
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WOW! Thank you for the answer overflow I didn't think the odds were that serious!! |
There's a flaw in this thinking. Overflow is calculating the probability of being dealt pp's and flopping the set 3x.
But we wouldn't start counting until we hit the second one. The first "one is a row" is irrelevant.
The probability of flopping two sets in a row is 0.000056, which is just as likely to happen after flopping a set as it as after flopping air.
BTW, the probability you're trying to estimate above is more like 4.19 million to 1, if you use exact probabilities.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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the odds are she played them all terrible iyam
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
the odds are she played them all terrible iyam
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now that was funny 
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