Originally Posted by Chopper

2) when you play AK, bet out your A, get raised, and hit your K, on the river...right after you gave up.

Originally Posted by Pelion

wtf? dont fold AK noob. Its the third best hand. /sarcasm

Originally Posted by Silly String

Fixed your post.

Originally Posted by ecrujet

are your cards predetermined? if you have K7 preflop and fold and see K77 come on the flop would it have still been the same if you called or would different algorithyms give you a different flop if you called? Untill now when i see that magic card hit the river i just say to myself it would have been different if i called and only get upset with myself if it was a wrong call based on implied odds.

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

The deck is predetermined by the shuffle. The shuffle is calculated via a deterministic algorithm design to pick what seems like a random shuffle. (These algorthims are immensly complex and completely unpredictable (google mersenne twister for more info).

After the shuffle you are dealt your cards and the board will come out the same no matter if you fold call or raise.

Regarding OP. I don't wish to seem offensive but the only thing you didn't do there was calculate your luck odds in order to determine estimated downswing lifespan.

Sure downswings are real but the fact that there are signs you are coming out is complete nonsense. All those little things you spot also happen when you're on heaters and when you're steadily winning. They just bother you less. A downswing is not determined by the alignment of the stars! It is just a sequence of beats that far from being unlikely, is completely natural mathematically.

Point is if you are mainly playing with the best of it, your heaters long term will be far sicker than those coolers.

Originally Posted by litetruck

Also, how many buyins is considered a downswing?

Originally Posted by litetruck

ginger i dont think hes being literal

Also, how many buyins is considered a downswing?

Originally Posted by Chopper

i wonder this one, too. all the time.

when in a downswing, we ALL see some monsters under the bed. your "i'm beat here" reads tend to get frighteningly accurate. like this one...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($24.50)
BB ($20.70)
UTG ($13.75)
UTG+1 ($28.20)
Hero ($26.70)
MP2 ($9.35)
MP3 ($31.80)
CO ($5.40)
Button ($39.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T, Q.
2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 5 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.60) 6, 9, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($0.60) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.5, BB raises to $2, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $3.

River: ($10.60) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $8, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $18.60

can you fold that? i never seem to fold a str8 unless i am absolutely sure i am beat. i figured him for QT, too, and a split pot. who calls the 3bet on the turn w/ a draw? another QT and a set? when the board pairs and he leads a decent bet, i still figure him for the QT, and buying the pot on a scare card, but cannot take the chance, imo, of finding a donkey flush or boat.

it was the boat. K6o!

we all know this game is RIGGED, right?

but you are right, jamsesyb, "it dont mean nothing."

i just see it as funny, when in a downswing for the umpteenth time, to see the same signs of things starting to improve...just not yet.

we also come out of those wi...every time...if the downswing dont go busto.

Originally Posted by Chopper

so, you're telling me you fold QTo pf to a loose and passive table that will let you play all sorts of stuff for a limp?

Originally Posted by Chopper

wow. you must run about 15/8. and have a win rate of 1.25/100 on a 10 NL table. good luck with that, but thanks for such detailed advice all the same.

Originally Posted by Chopper

i understand i gave no "table read," but, imo, most broadways at lower stakes should be in your "i wanna see a cheap flop" range. hell, its only one notch outside aok's starting 19.

Originally Posted by Chopper

so, you're telling me you fold QTo pf to a loose and passive table that will let you play all sorts of stuff for a limp?

wow. you must run about 15/8. and have a win rate of 1.25/100 on a 10 NL table. good luck with that, but thanks for such detailed advice all the same.

i understand i gave no "table read," but, imo, most broadways at lower stakes should be in your "i wanna see a cheap flop" range. hell, its only one notch outside aok's starting 19.