A cure for running bad.

If you've been running super good for a decent amount of hands, you almost expect some bad variance to flick you in the nuts eventually.

When the negative variance kicks in, simply move down to 2nl for a few thousand hands. Its so simple its rediculous. Thoughts?

If you mean when your playing deteriorates you drop down in stakes (might as well play playmoney), then yes.

If you mean that you somehow magically know when you will get good cards and bad cards, then no.


Someone page Youngdro pls

do you mean dropping down because then the bad beats wont cost as much???

I suppose its not a cure for running bad, but a cure for saving money whilst running bad.

I know that bad/good runs don't go for a certain amount of hands, its random. But if say.. you had been on a bad streak for 5 k hands..move down in stakes until u feel that your hands are holding up..then back up you go.
I suppose i should probably just take my bad runs like a man, and let my good BRM take care of it..but still, losing money sucks. Wouldn't hurt to try this out.


Hmm. And who is young dro?

Originally Posted by sil693

do you mean dropping down because then the bad beats wont cost as much???

Lol. In other words, yes.

Originally Posted by AnTman_69

Hmm. And who is young dro?

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...light=youngdro

That's not how variance works?

But at it's core, the idea it there. Move down when you're running bad.

It works, not because minimizing losses in "bad run" - bad runs and good runs can be only defined after result, not beforehand. But moving down helps with dealing with tilt.

Vrax said it.

If you have been unlucky and your A-game suffers as a result. You are annoyed, you are frustrated, you want to win a big hand now etc etc - do not continue playing at stakes that are challenging to you. You could take a break. Or you could play some at lower stakes. Both work - but the important thing is not that you're reducing your 'running bad' loss by playing at a lower stake - it's that you are addressing the tilt that is making you play poorly.

If the plain bad luck component doesn't phase you and you still make the best decisions possible you should not move down. You should just keep grinding. But when you assess whether or not you are affected you have to be absolutely truthful to yourself.

This seems like "buy high, sell low" - the worst investment advice ever. If you drop down when you run bad, then the upswing will happen at lower stakes than you were playing when you were running bad.

Am I missing something here? Cuz this seems kinda crazy to me.

I heard/read some pro utter something on this not so long ago.

You are never running bad.

By this I mean that you are never in the middle of a bad stretch. If you THINK you are in the middle of a bad stretch you are ASSUMING that the near future will hold bad luck for you. That is UNREALISTIC to the point of being IDIOTIC.

Ok, I'll stop now.

The point he made was that you can look at a past period and say that from date x to date y I ran bad. You cannot by definition say that you are right now running bad as you are suggesting that you know that you're in the middle of it - and thus predicting how your luck will be in the immediate future. You may be at the very beginning of a massive bad run or you may be at the very end of one and about to enter an upswing or breakeven stretch. The only thing you know is that you could not possibly know.

The only way you can be running bad is if you are convinced you are running bad and therefore subconsciously make yourself run bad. Maybe you tighten up and give away edges - hurting your EV - or you play much more aggressively to take pots through aggression because the cards won't be helping you - spewing off stacks of chips. That is why it is important not to let yourself believe that you are running bad. If you start believing it - it's a form of tilt and needs to be addressed as a form of tilt. Moving down might be the right reply to this particular form of tilt if it allows you to settle down and gives you the confidence to play your A game at your normal stakes. A break might work just as well.

Running bad only exists in the mind. It's like suggesting a cure for someone who thinks they are cursed for a fixed amount of time.

If you have been running bad - thats history and thats poker.
If you think you will run continue to run bad for a period of time - thats tilt.
Moving down is an excellent idea when you are tilting.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Running bad only exists in the mind. It's like suggesting a cure for someone who thinks they are cursed for a fixed amount of time.

I'm running $300 above expectation, but still curse variance when it turns for a single session.

"Flop more sets" - Lukie

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($266.60)
UTG+1 ($109.15)
CO ($244.35)
BTN ($190.00)
SB ($207.00)
Hero ($237.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $8, 4 folds, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $12, Hero raises to $34, UTG raises to $80, Hero goes all-in $229, UTG calls $149

Turn: ($475, 2 players)

River: ($475, 2 players)

Final Pot: $475
Hero shows:
UTG shows:

Hero wins $472 ( won +$235 )
UTG lost -$237.00

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Running bad only exists in the mind. It's like suggesting a cure for someone who thinks they are cursed for a fixed amount of time.

"There's a problem, but it's in your head. So there is no problem."

???

Yes, it's in your head, that's why moving down levels works. You're not playing your best, your opponents are worse and the money is less. All enough to ride out whatever needs ridden out to get your confidence back up.

Here's a cure for running bad: play good
by that I mean don't get tilted and play your winning game and eventually you'll start running good if you employ correct BR management

Cure for running bad:

Dear MARK,

Congratulations, you have won $67,456.00 USD by winning the hand No6335975021 on which the Bad Beat Jackpot was hit.

The money has already been credited into your EmpirePoker.com Account.

We hope you are having an exciting time playing on our tables!

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Cure for running bad:

Dear MARK,

Congratulations, you have won $67,456.00 USD by winning the hand No6335975021 on which the Bad Beat Jackpot was hit.

The money has already been credited into your EmpirePoker.com Account.

We hope you are having an exciting time playing on our tables!

Is that for real??


I understand, it is all phycology. I shall read up about variance e.t.c. to completely grasp the concept.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Running bad only exists in the mind. It's like suggesting a cure for someone who thinks they are cursed for a fixed amount of time.

"There's a problem, but it's in your head. So there is no problem."

???

Yes, it's in your head, that's why moving down levels works. You're not playing your best, your opponents are worse and the money is less. All enough to ride out whatever needs ridden out to get your confidence back up.

Eh you kind of misinterpreted what I said, but I didn't use the best word choice either, so that's probably my fault.

There is no reason that any result in poker has to equate to feeling any emotion except that you want it to. If you didn't want it to, then it wouldn't happen, and there wouldn't be any problems. If you get sucked out on and you punch a wall or throw something or get mad and piss away half your bankroll, that has nothing to do with poker and everything to do with you wanting to feel something that gives you compensation for what you felt was yours in the moment (ie the money in the pot).

This is why moving down doesn't really help anything long-term; it's just like cheap dollar store duct tape to patch shit up to make it look like everything is okay.

There are no solutions for tilt to be found in poker because it's not a poker problem, it's a people problem. Suggestions like "move down" or "play less tables" or "take a break" don't correct anything, they just ignore the real problem -- we're fucked up people who never work on the fact that we're fucked up people.

With that having been said, I'm of the opinion that there are two main categories of things when can do to work on our tilt problems. The first type of stuff we can do is more of a preventative type thing where we try to manipulate our responses to the conditions that create tilt. The second type of stuff is to attack the source directly by dealing with the real-life issues that leads to the manipulation that poker and outside events surrounding poker have on us.

Here are a few things that could help with attachment to results, emotional control, and that ultimately will make you a better person, not to mention poker player. I've picked some of these up from various places over the years, and are pulling some of them out of my ass just as I type this. If someone "just doesn't see how X will help your poker" or thinks "doing X is clearly -EV" then they just have a misunderstanding of the problem. There are certainly more ways than this to deal with emotionally-induced tilt (yes, there are other types) but this should get someone started:

1. The very next time you get pocket Aces preflop, open fold. The few big blinds that you lose in value immediately will be regained plus more when you discover that it's okay to fold the best hand. In the middle of emotional turmoil if you can't fold a winning hand, what makes you think you could fold a losing one?

2. Double your current bankroll management buy-ins guideline. If you have more money than you would ever need to play at a certain level, then you'll never worry about needing money to play at a certain level, which means the 600bb pot that you lost by a 2 outer with one card to come won't mean so much. Then once you stop caring about the money so much, you can actually focus on getting better with little or no obstruction.

3. Pay very careful attention to your emotions during your day. Constant monitoring of how you're feeling allows you to take control more easily. Just now my girlfriend came in asking in a rather pissed off tone why I left the bread open last night when she is actually the one who did it. As she came in pissed off, my first reaction was to be a little irritated since she was accusing me of something she did. But as soon as I felt myself becoming irritated, I took extra care to make sure that it didn't affect how I dealt with the conversation that ensued. When you practice this all day every day, monitoring your emotions in poker can go from being one of the hardest parts of your day to one of the easiest parts of your day.

I've already typed too much, but this should be enough.

paulwright
PostPosted: Wed, 06 Aug 2008, 1:26pm
If you have been running bad - thats history and thats poker.
If you think you will run continue to run bad for a period of time - thats tilt.
Moving down is an excellent idea when you are tilting.

Word.

I also like spoonit's zen-like advice as a long-term goal. For the short term tilter, sometimes it's good to get your azz off 'dem tables!

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

1. The very next time you get pocket Aces preflop, open fold. The few big blinds that you lose in value immediately will be regained plus more when you discover that it's okay to fold the best hand. In the middle of emotional turmoil if you can't fold a winning hand, what makes you think you could fold a losing one?

2. Double your current bankroll management buy-ins guideline. If you have more money than you would ever need to play at a certain level, then you'll never worry about needing money to play at a certain level, which means the 600bb pot that you lost by a 2 outer with one card to come won't mean so much. Then once you stop caring about the money so much, you can actually focus on getting better with little or no obstruction.

3. Pay very careful attention to your emotions during your day. Constant monitoring of how you're feeling allows you to take control more easily. Just now my girlfriend came in asking in a rather pissed off tone why I left the bread open last night when she is actually the one who did it. As she came in pissed off, my first reaction was to be a little irritated since she was accusing me of something she did. But as soon as I felt myself becoming irritated, I took extra care to make sure that it didn't affect how I dealt with the conversation that ensued. When you practice this all day every day, monitoring your emotions in poker can go from being one of the hardest parts of your day to one of the easiest parts of your day.

I've already typed too much, but this should be enough.

Yes.

Originally Posted by oteezy03

paulwright
PostPosted: Wed, 06 Aug 2008, 1:26pm
If you have been running bad - thats history and thats poker.
If you think you will run continue to run bad for a period of time - thats tilt.
Moving down is an excellent idea when you are tilting.

Word.

I also like spoonit's zen-like advice as a long-term goal. For the short term tilter, sometimes it's good to get your azz off 'dem tables!

Uggghhh short term vs long term... You're probably right tho, if you can't deal with tilt, don't take it out on your roll.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

1. The very next time you get pocket Aces preflop, open fold. The few big blinds that you lose in value immediately will be regained plus more when you discover that it's okay to fold the best hand. In the middle of emotional turmoil if you can't fold a winning hand, what makes you think you could fold a losing one?

Thankyou Mr Spoon.....


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $52.70 (210.8 bb)
SB: $27.92 (111.7 bb)
BB: $9.91 (39.6 bb)
UTG: $26.03 (104.1 bb)
MP: $17.88 (71.5 bb)
CO: $25.10 (100.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.50, 4 folds

Results: $0.60 pot
MP mucked and won $0.60 ($0.35 net)

jesus fuck,

welcome to the lighting money on fire thread.

my best guess is you disconnected or timed out, boris? or did you actually recall and follow spoon's advice from a 4+ year old thread

I remember one time playing a bunch of tables, running to take a piss, coming back and narrowly timing out on AA, board came AJx, 2 jackasses got it all in and JJ wins

Originally Posted by rpm

my best guess is you disconnected or timed out, boris? or did you actually recall and follow spoon's advice from a 4+ year old thread

No, I actually followed his advice. I was running like shit since I moved up (had an OK session last night though) and I was hunting around for peoples advice on dealing with variance.

I make 10bb on average each time I'm dealt pocket AA, ie. $2.50. Like the OP said, - "In the middle of emotional turmoil if you can't fold a winning hand, what makes you think you could fold a losing one?"

This hand though, was a misclick. As I said the other night when I was talking about it, why can't I misclick-fold the second pair I'm about to station down against an aggressive 'tard, instead of this?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $22.23 (88.9 bb)
SB: $8.83 (35.3 bb)
BB: $18.06 (72.2 bb)
Hero (UTG): $38.57 (154.3 bb)
MP: $52.93 (211.7 bb)
CO: $28.35 (113.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $0.75, MP folds, CO raises to $2.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.85) K 6 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.85) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $5, Hero folds

Results: $9.85 pot ($0.44 rake)
Final Board: K 6 Q J
Hero mucked K K and lost (-$4.75 net)
CO mucked and won $9.41 ($4.66 net)

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

No, I actually followed his advice. I was running like shit since I moved up (had an OK session last night though) and I was hunting around for peoples advice on dealing with variance.

I make 10bb on average each time I'm dealt pocket AA, ie. $2.50. Like the OP said, - "In the middle of emotional turmoil if you can't fold a winning hand, what makes you think you could fold a losing one?"

sorry I can't tell if this is serious or not. Oh boy I hope it's not?? Please tell me it's not lol.

this thread makes me sick that i cant play on ftp or stars.

The worst hand is usually worse than the best hand. This alone is some justification for thinking you can fold the worst hand at least sometimes in a spot where you can't fold the best hand.