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counting your outs?

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joslin

03-15-2005, 12:20 PM Post subject: counting your outs?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 52

Another Newbie Question: <-- to avoid flaming
Just read the charts about pot odds and can see that it would be helpful...

Do you generally count your outs every hand dealt, or do you 'see' it ?

Is there a fast way of doing it, any tips on how to do it correctly.

I can see how youd do it. If you have a straighdraw on the flop then youd have 8 outs on the turn and river - right (4below and 4above)?

But how about something like
AA
with a flop of
26J rainbow

How would you calculate that ?
- or am I missing something.

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rob6597

03-15-2005, 12:44 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Minnesota

Posts: 110

You only need to worry about your outs when you're drawing... that is, you don't have the best hand yet... you're trying to make one like a straight or a flush. In the case where you have AA and the board is J62 rainbow, you have to assume that you've got the best hand already. (Sure, it's not the best possible hand, but most likely you're ahead.) There are no outs to calculate at this point.

Now, if the turn was another J, and you were positive that your opponent has a J, you no longer have the best hand. You're behind, and have 2 outs to get an A on the river to win.

Oh... and no need to worry about getting flamed here on FTR. ESPECIALLY in the beginner's forum.

joslin

03-15-2005, 01:19 PM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 52

Thank you.
Ok - so outs are when your under...
Makes sense...

And the charts were pretty easy to memorize roughly aswell
on the turn approx 4 * #outs
on the river approx 2 * #outs

And the charts tell you the chance percentage of one card showing up that fulfills your an out.
And that is then related to the potsize/expected win ...
something like, if the pot odds give me 35% I need to have a expected pot of (at least) about 3 times the bet.

Have I gotten it right?

EDIT: ehh, related to potsize or win ?

Spook

03-15-2005, 02:30 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Denver, CO

Posts: 388

Quote:

Originally Posted by joslin

something like, if the pot odds give me 35% I need to have a expected pot of (at least) about 3 times the bet.

Have I gotten it right?

EDIT: ehh, related to potsize or win ?

Pretty close. Your post was mainly describing POT odds. Which are a straight up calculation of how large the bet you have to call is compared to what is in there to win.

EXAMPLE HAND

The blinds are 10/20

You are the BB
Folds to the Button
Button raises it to 50
SB calls

Right now the pot is 120 (20 from you, 50 from button, 50 from SB) and it will cost you 30 to call. Right now your pot odds are 120:30 or 4:1. Your hand is A

so you like your possibilities and are getting very nice pot odds, so you call.

Flop comes 2

(Pot=150)

Action after the flop is to you first and you decide to check.

-----------------------------

Scenario 1

Button bets 50
SB calls

Right now the pot is 250 and it will cost you 50 to play, so 250:50 or 5:1 are your POT ODDS (very nice by the way). Next lets look at your outs. Another heart would give you a flush. There are 13 hearts in the deck, we know where 4 of them are, so 13-4=9 outs for the flush.

An Ace might be an out, but it might also give someone else a straight. Or on this case it could easily give one of your opponents 2 pair (they both paid to play with some kind of cards AQ or AJ are quite possible here). There are 3 A's we haven't seen but because of the tainted posibilities lets just call it 1 out here.

There is the possibility of some miricle draw like 99 or A9 or AA giving us something good, but those are slim enough not to bother counting IMHO.

So where are we?
9+1=10 outs

That means that of the 47 cards left there are 10 that will help us and basicly all the others wont. So 47-10=37 bad cards and 10 good cards. We figure the odds of winning are 37:10 or 3.7:1 against us.

We can compare 5:1 pot odds to 3.7:1 odds and we have an easy call because the ratio of what we stand to win is greater than the ratio of the chances against us. Over time, making this same move in this same situation WILL MAKE MONEY FOR US.

-----------------------------

Scenario 2

Button goes all-in for 150
SB folds

Right now the pot is 300 and it will cost you 150 to play, so 300:150 or 2:1 pot odds.

Your hand and the flop has not changed from the last scenario so our outs have not changed. We compare 2:1 pot odds to 3.7:1 and we probably want to fold here. Why? Because the ratio of what we stand to win is less than the ratio of the chances against us. Over time, making this call in this same situation WILL LOSE MONEY FOR US.

-----------------------------

Scenario 3

You have 2000 remaining
Button (fish) bets 150 and has 2000 remaining
SB folds

This is basically the same betting scenerio as the last one, but this time notice that there is a good chance that much more money could be made if you do hit one of your outs. How much? Well lets say that you feel this player will call anything you bet no matter what card comes (yes there realy are some people out there who will do that.. isn't it great?). This means that your IMPLIED ODDS are 2000:150 or 200:15 or 13.3:1

Implied odds are much less reliable, because you can almost never be sure of their value. A player who usually calls in a given situation wont ALWAYS do it. But keeping in mind there there could be a lot more money to be made if you play it right is definately worth considering.

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joslin

03-15-2005, 02:47 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 52

Thanks - that clearified it. (...I'll prob. need to read it a few times...)

Calculation on the fly though....
I see that seeing outs would come from experiense but,
Can you learn to read the pot odds in a fast paced online game ?

EDIT:
reread it - ok - pot odds before the flop is easy enough and counting the outs, but making the calculation of your odds for the turn and river seems a little too much to handle in such a small time as say 10s...

DavSimon

03-15-2005, 03:43 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: Mount Holly, NC

Posts: 813

DavSimon is an unknown quantity at this point

In the beginning I had a difficult time with counting outs and calculating pot odds. As with many things in poker, practice and doing is the way to learn. All I did was play 1 table and write down all of my hands, had a calculator and sat there and practiced counting outs and calculating pot odds...whether I was involved in the pot of not.
What happened over time w/ practice is that you start learning the outs, learn which ones to discount, and how the math works out. It probably took me a solid month to get quick at it. If you honestly put the time in, you will be surprised how fast you can do it.

This is a quick and dirty way to figure pot odds.....you take the # of outs times 2, then add 1, and this will give you the percentage of hitting one of your outs on the next card. Next multily that percentage by the pot and the bet you are calling to determine the maximum bet you should call.

For example you have A-Ko....the flop is 2-7-T rainbow for simplicity. You have put your opponent on top pair with a decent kicker....9-T or Q-T. You have 6 outs for the over cards to pair (you also have a backdoor str8 draw but lets ignore that) 6x2+1= 13% you will get an A or K on the next card. Add the pot and your opponents bet by 13% (.13) bet to determine what sized bet you should call. There are other considerations such as implied odds, or simply playing your stack and position aggresively in NL, but for now just practice counting outs and you will be able to do it quickly in no time at all.

Molinero

03-15-2005, 05:27 PM

#7 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: In The General Vicinity of Dallas

Posts: 230

Quote:

Originally Posted by rob6597

Don't forget about times when the board pairs or there's a flush draw and you have trips or two pair. If the guy with trips or a FH doesn't kill your pot odds, it may be incorrect to fold.

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Dunk

03-15-2005, 05:58 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Mar 2005

Location: Metrowest Massachusetts

Posts: 131

thanks Spook, that was a great example with the different scenarios!

-dunk

Note: new guy and very open to constructive criticism, so go ahead and weigh in! I'm here to learn.

eeeee

03-15-2005, 06:40 PM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: SoCal

Posts: 906

The tool that helped me with pot odds was this Poker Stars skin from Mike4066
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...highlight=skin

One has an odds chart on it! It lists the number of outs and the odds return your money should receive. e.g., 9=1:4 (Flush draw nine outs, one-to-four ratio) means that your dollar call should get you at least a $4 pot, or you fold. Right?

Without a chart, I do it in my head with a rough division -- "how many times does OUTS go into NUMBER OF CARDS I CAN'T SEE(APPROX), rounded and minus one." e.g., flush draw, "9 outs goes into about 45 cards (46, 47, 48 -- I'm gonna round it off anyway, number geeks) about five times -- easy! -- minus one, ok, equals 4 -- they want a dollar from me and the pot will be $4.50 after my bet? -- easy call!"

joslin

03-15-2005, 08:03 PM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 52

Thanks for the replies - I will look into this after I get my feet wet a bit

- and realise I need it to not loose my money

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