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pgil
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10-28-2005, 05:00 PM
Post subject: Correct use of implied odds?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,103
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I believe I have this right, but just want to make sure. Here's the situation:
.05/.10 NL 6 handed. I flop an OESD on the button w/ a 57. Guy across from me makes a pot sized (.50) bet. I put him on TP (10) and my read on him is that he wil not be able to get away from this hand no matter what comes on the later streets, so I called. He had about 5.50 to start the hand, and I had him covered. I figured if I missed on the turn, he would again make a pot sized bet, making it a total of $2.00 for me to get to the river (.50 on the flop, 1.50 on the turn), and the potential for the pot to be around $10. Will this make money in the long run?
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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Pay 2$ to win 5.90$ =~33.9%
Odds of hitting your draw =~31.4%
So (under your assumptions) it's a losing play.
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edudlive
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 100NL 6max
Posts: 623
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If you can destack him everytime, then yes its a good use.
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pgil
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,103
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by johnny_fish
Pay 2$ to win 5.90$ =~33.9%
Odds of hitting your draw =~31.4%
So (under your assumptions) it's a losing play.
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does the money I put into a pot not get counted when determining odds (both pot and implied)? Because if this is the case, then I have been doing it wrong.
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"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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no, the money you put into a pot doesnt count for either
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lamaros
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 346
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Hm. I would think your BB does. But nothing else.
Basicly it depends when you start playing for the implied odds. As you played for it from the flop you count anything PF, but not what you're going to put in from then on.
Right?
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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yea, any money you voluntarily put into the pot should not count
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Laeelin
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,137
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Money already in the pot counts...
Doesnt matter who it came from... 
It's the money that your betting now that doesnt count
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krimson
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10-29-2005, 01:12 PM
Post subject: Re: Correct use of implied odds?
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#9 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 108
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Calling a pot sized bet on the turn would be a bad idea since there is little money left behind. You would be calling a $1.50 bet with a 1/6 chance of winning about $7, so even if you are correct that he will pay you off when you hit the river calling would be -EV.
Calling the flop with the intention of folding the turn if you miss is OK though: you are paying $.50 with a 1/6 chance of hitting the turn, so you just have to win $3 when you hit to break even. There's $1 in the pot already, and extracting $2 more from op on the turn and river sounds faesible (even without your read that he can't lay down his hand).
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Iwind
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 436
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Quote:
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I figured if I missed on the turn, he would again make a pot sized bet, making it a total of $2.00 for me to get to the river
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Even if that is true, there is a difference between calling $0.5 to see turn and then calling $1.5 to see river than putting in $2 at flop and see both turn and river. Might happen that he checks the turn if he thinks you have a strong hand, wich he might think if you raise his bet instead of just calling it. Depends on the player though. But when you have more information, that is have seen the turn card, it is a new situation.
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