|
Fnord
|
03-02-2006, 05:46 PM
Post subject: Concept: Implied threat
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
NLHE $0.5/$1 blinds, $70 effective stacks.
Kinda TAggy player who tries to play well opens from MP for $4.
Fnord calls from the button.
Blinds fold.
$8ish in the pot
Flop is:
  
TAggy bets $6, Fnord raises to $18.
TAggy is playing for stacks, Fnord is not. Discuss.
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
cobere
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Fort Collins
Posts: 336
|
|
Assuming you've got 2 cards that the flop missed, and not holding 74o "The Rippy".
I like this move and use it from time to time with success at 25NL. I look for the tight/passive types on Poker Tracker, or an opp who I've seen lay down to a scare card or similar threat in the past.
A read on opp's frequency of c-betting helps too, since you're hoping ideally that the flop missed him. Another good situation is where he is holding AJ/AT or lower and is afraid he might be outkicked. You're representing either a strong AK, or a loosely called A7/A4 that hit two pair on the flop, or even a non-slowplayed set.
The one downside that I see to this line is that it is expensive. You're betting $18 to win $14, so it needs to work (opp fold) a little more than half the time to break even, unless he calls and you catch something on the turn and can proceed to take down a big pot.
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by cobere
The one downside that I see to this line is that it is expensive. You're betting $18 to win $14, so it needs to work (opp fold) a little more than half the time to break even, unless he calls and you catch something on the turn and can proceed to take down a big pot.
|
Lol, you guys are great. Immediatly putting Fnord on air!
Fnord is certainly capable of having AK/AJs+/77/44/74o here.
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Looks like my semibluff line into wimpy players when drawing to a made hand. Also looks like you misgauged his aggressive qualities if he reraised you. I can do this to certain players and get a free card regardless of what they hold. It's like I pop them into slowplay mode if their hand is strong, then I check behind the turn most days. It's troubling how often I make my hand on the river and they bet right into me.
You know someone is a little tough to handle when they consistently 3 bet you back, and overbet turns when you smooth call flops on the draw.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
For what it's worth, this hand is fictional, but very important and I think the vast majority of NL100 players don't get it.
Everyone is putting me on a draw/air, yet more often than not Ax is just calling the c-bet.
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Can't wait to hear your take.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Can't wait to hear your take
|
Put people to ranges.
Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet?
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
It's like I pop them into slowplay mode if their hand is strong, then I check behind the turn most days. It's troubling how often I make my hand on the river and they bet right into me.
|
Great point!
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Can't wait to hear your take
|
Put people to ranges.
Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet? |
When a smart player has a strong underpair like KK QQ, and you hold AK?
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Warpe
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
|
|
Good possibility that Kinda TAggy is holding TPTK/GK, but maybe not, though regardless you're repping TPTK at minimum, 2-pair or a set here. The implied threat is that you're ready to play for stacks. Decision time for Kinda TAggy. He's either folding or, if he's playing for stacks, reraising. Does Fnord fold to a reraise?
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Warpe
Good possibility that Kinda TAggy is holding TPTK/GK
|
Put him to a range.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Warpe
Does Fnord fold to a reraise?
|
Fnord is certainly capable of this.
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet?
|
When a smart player has a strong underpair like KK QQ, and you hold AK? |
How often does the player described with KK/QQ/JJ bet the turn unimproved in your observation? If a call is correct against this opponent with AKo, what other hands should call here for balance?
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
The impression of the player you're giving is someone not so creative as much as careful. Given that, after his stack show, my range for this player is AA, AQ or AK. I can't see a boring green tagg showing a wider range. He's aiming to please. Respect is a read.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Given that, after his stack show, my range for this player is AA, AQ or AK.
|
AJ+/KQ/ATs+/TT+ other stuff like 5-10% of the time.
The flop bet says he still has 2 cards and doesn't think I have an Ace. Agree, Disagree?
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Is it ever correct for Fnord to just call the c-bet?
|
When a smart player has a strong underpair like KK QQ, and you hold AK? |
How often does the player described with KK/QQ/JJ bet the turn unimproved in your observation? If a call is correct against this opponent with AKo, what other hands should call here for balance? |
Never really considered it to be honest. When I think about smooth calling that flop holding an ace, I think about someone putting too much action on me if I raise, even though I feel I'm probably ahead, and he's not drawing. I mean when the player is overaggressive on a wide range and capable of pushing KK stacks into your AJ if you instigate, but likely to keep it affordable if you don't. Pot control.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
I mean when the player is overaggressive and capable of pushing KK stacks into your AJ if you instigate, but likely to keep it affordable if you don't. Pot control.
|
I agree that you must call here often against an over-aggo player who will follow through with a big turn bet often reguardless of his cards.
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
I think Fnord is just alluding to one of the great advantages of being in position. The player in back can put in a small raise (in relation to the stacks) that directly threatens the player in front's entire stack. Assuming the player OOP is competant, Fnord then has an incredible amount of information about the strength of villain's hand and can proceed with the hand depending on what he holds. Just as importantly, it gets money in quickly with a big hand before cards come that can beat you or kill your action. For example if Fnord holds 77, a spade is very unlikely to beat our hero since As is on the board, but it very well may kill his action. However, playing this way with air, in my experience, tends to be badly -EV. I think Fnord would agree with this. At least to an extent.
Quote:
|
How often does the player described with KK/QQ/JJ bet the turn unimproved in your observation? If a call is correct against this opponent with AKo, what other hands should call here for balance?
|
Without directly answering your question, nothing pleases me more then seeing players blatantly playing their huge hands noticably different then there more marginal ones. IE raising flop draws, top pairs, weak overpairs, etc., while calling flop bets to try to play a massive pot on later streets with bigger hands.. ie sets. When I stack off with a hand like AK TPTK, it's often because I pick up on something like this. Fnord- I believe you were at the table to see a similar hand, where villain had a big draw where we got it AI on the turn.
|
|
|
|
poskid_1982
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Midwest
Posts: 392
|
|
PF I'm putting Taggy to
AJs+, TT+, KJs+, AQo+
I think you can take TAggy down to the stronger PP's and A's though as with KQ or KJ I find most Tag's wont c-bet an A with these hands.
Your raise is screaming "I have a hand get out you F*ing flush draw" which makes me honestly think you want to keep the guy in the hand. I do this against TAggys mostly because they like to make the "unbelievable" call and catch the over-aggressor playing air often enough to make a mistake for stacks with TPTK. You own him...his Pair of A's (if he calls or pushes back over you) to your set/2pair or you gain a fold and some more table image. Either way I like the move.
PK
|
|
Superb play sir...I always call 20% of my stack off with a gutshot draw. Excuse me while I race for my wallet.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
However, playing this way with air too often, after you've just shown a lot of loose action or into loose players tends to be badly -EV.
|
Fixed your post. I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Given that, after his stack show, my range for this player is AA, AQ or AK.
|
AJ+/KQ/ATs+/TT+ other stuff like 5-10% of the time.
The flop bet says he still has 2 cards and doesn't think I have an Ace. Agree, Disagree? |
If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.
|
YES
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
Without directly answering your question, nothing pleases me more then seeing players blatantly playing their huge hands noticably different then there more marginal ones. IE raising flop draws, top pairs, weak overpairs, etc., while calling flop bets to try to play a massive pot on later streets with bigger hands.. ie sets. When I stack off with a hand like AK TPTK, it's often because I pick up on something like this. Fnord- I believe you were at the table to see a similar hand, where villain had a big draw where we got it AI on the turn.
|
Awesome. This post rules.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Warpe
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.
|
...or just allow yourself to get caught making one or two...
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.
|
Can you clairfy?
Lets get specific, in the PS100 game am I mistaken to think that the PFR is c-betting any flop heads-up 90% of the time and Axx more often? If he checks, it might be something like TT+ but probably Ax getting tricky. Agree, Disagree?
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap.
|
YES |
A common mistake is that typical players will over-estimate your bluffing frequency after you've shown a lot of action or been caught bluffing. People have trouble dealing with probabilities, hate being bluffed and like to showdown pretty good hands. In NLHE these tendencies can be ruthlessly exploited.
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.
|
Can you clairfy?
Lets get specific, in the PS100 game am I mistaken to think that the PFR is c-betting any flop heads-up 90% of the time and Axx more often? If he checks, it might be something like TT+ but probably Ax getting tricky. Agree, Disagree? |
Your whole point being that raising a villains fast play into non threatening ace flops is as good a time as any to raise with any two, which potentially nets $ or builds valuable image? That's getting smarter than most 100NL players can handle IMO.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Your whole point being that raising a villains fast play into non threatening ace flops is as good a time as any to raise with any two, which potentially nets $ or builds valuable image?
|
Fair enough, mostly just calling you on putting our poor little TAgg on Ax here so quickly.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.
|
I didn't understand this. Please explain.
|
|
|
|
poskid_1982
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Midwest
Posts: 392
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
However, playing this way with air too often, after you've just shown a lot of loose action or into loose players tends to be badly -EV.
|
Fixed your post. I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap. |
I agree with you Fnord...but are you often throwing air into this pot against this opponent? He may think so because he's seen you do it against other opps. I just think you are more unlikely to do it here though he may believe that air is a possibility. His perception of the play is what matters most...I still believe that you are sitting on a monster more often than not...I know I would be since I believe he's likely to want to play for stacks against you with TPGK if he thinks you're willing to play air or a weaker hand.
PK
|
|
Superb play sir...I always call 20% of my stack off with a gutshot draw. Excuse me while I race for my wallet.
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
However, playing this way with air too often, after you've just shown a lot of loose action or into loose players tends to be badly -EV.
|
Fixed your post. I think air is an important part of my range here. The meat that you might be bluffing baits the trap. |
For metagame purposes against smart players, I agree. For example, the JJvKTo hand between ourselves may help you get paid off down the road when you actually have the monster you were repping.
In isolation however, I feel the situation you presented is -EV to be bluff raising a PFRer on an A-high flop, unless he is really weak-tight. It also seems that 'shania' and it's implications mean little to many of the softer players that comprise the low/middleish stakes games. I could be way off base here, but I do agree that the ability to play air like this, LIKE ANY AGRESSIVE line, needs to be incorporated into your game. In isolation, I just don't think the situation you presented to be a very good one. It's one, for example, you could legitimtely raise a wide range to the point where a set is likely to get paid off by an AK type hand anyway.
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
For metagame purposes against smart players, I agree. For example, the JJvKTo hand between ourselves may help you get paid off down the road when you actually have the monster you were repping.
|
I raised there because I thought you would fold and wanted to make it perfectly clear that any pot between us may hit 50-200bb with weak hands. I made a couple small misreads, but meh.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
In isolation however, I feel the situation you presented is -EV to be bluff raising a PFRer on an A-high flop, unless he is really weak-tight.
|
I have a follow-up that addressess some of this indirectly...
|
|
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
For the record, I'm not trying to argue that air should never be part of your range here. I just don't think, from hero's perspective, it should comprise a significant % of your range by any stretch of the imagination. If villain wants to take that 5% (just making up a number here, think of it as X%, X being a small number) chance you have nothing and talk himself into a horrible call to play a big pot with a very marginal hand.... see where I'm going with this?
Perhaps less importantly (perhaps more), in isolation, the play is still usually a loser.
|
|
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
Perhaps less importantly (perhaps more), in isolation, the play is still usually a loser.
|
It's at worst a small mistake, otherwise Rippy would have busted out by now.
Speaking of Rippy, he would follow through on the turn quite often. But I'm getting ahead of myself now...
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Rondavu
If you're getting involved in a lot of pots with broken aces, then pushing stacks at you has a good chance of succeeding on this board in this spot. You have to be making a lot of invalid reraises to have a villain do this against you on assumption minus cards.
|
I didn't understand this. Please explain. |
Say I'm playing against you. The more you re-raise my continuation bet into this flop with air or weak aces, the closer I come to pushing my stack forward with less than one pair of aces. This is what you ask for. It takes a while to get there against most opponents. If I were to do this against you however, I would show you less than a pair of aces to counterplay you into calling with weak aces when I have a big one in the future.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Lukie
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
Perhaps less importantly (perhaps more), in isolation, the play is still usually a loser.
|
It's at worst a small mistake, otherwise Rippy would have busted out by now.
Speaking of Rippy, he would follow through on the turn quite often. But I'm getting ahead of myself now... |
It's really hard to judge without more info on villain. Is villain laggy preflop and weak post-flop, or taggy preflop and takes TP hands WAY too far post-flop?
|
|
|
|
Rondavu
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lukie
For the record, I'm not trying to argue that air should never be part of your range here. I just don't think, from hero's perspective, it should comprise a significant % of your range by any stretch of the imagination.
|
In my experience you have to keep poking the dog until it barks.
|
|
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Dangerous thought:
What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?
|
|
|
|
Krieg1984
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 93
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Dangerous thought:
What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?
|
Very intriguing.
I'm assuming that you would raise the c-bet with a made set as well. The odds of flopping a set or better with paired hole cards is 7.5/1, but I'll just round it down to 7 for simplicity's sake. Now, for raising the c-bet when you don't make your set, you would need to flip two coins and get heads on both. The odds are 3/1 against it. So basically you would be raising 25% of the time.
1 out of 8 trials you are raising with a made set. (12.5%)
The other 7 trials where you don't make your set:
1.75 out of 7 you are raising. (25%)
5.25 out of 7 you are folding (75%)
You would be raising almost 35% of the time.
Hmm, the game theory bit is interesting, but there's so many factors I haven't even began to look at. I'm plenty sure that stack sizes, the size of the pot and the c-bet on the flop, image of villian, and image of hero are all super-important (of course). Against a smart opponent, this could be an nice way to mix it up though.
|
Lukie: "Yo Fnord I was playing omaha earlier"
Lukie: "I got dealt quads"
Lukie: "but everyone folded to my raise  "
Lukie: "I was going to pwn everyone"
Fnord: "Gotta slowplay them big hands man..."
|
|
KY_Ace
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Dangerous thought:
What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?
|
Now you're getting into some game theory, if u don't have a coin you could raise every time the middle card is a diamond, or the right or left card, as long as you decide pre-flop.
I'm thinking you've got AJ here, if the tight player reraises he's got AK and you can muck, if he calls you can bet the turn and check behind him on the river incase he's got AQ. Raising would be better than just calling if he's aggressive because showing weakness might encourage him to make a huge bet on the turn. You wouldn't know if he's got AA, AK, AQ or if he's just betting because you showed weakness.
|
|
{solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by KY_Ace
I'm thinking you've got AJ here
|
I just sprayed coke all over my keyboard. Thanks!
|
|
|
|
KY_Ace
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by KY_Ace
I'm thinking you've got AJ here
|
I just sprayed coke all over my keyboard. Thanks! |
I guess I'm way off take pride in being hard to read! First thought would be A7s but you said you weren't playing for stacks, and you gotta call with A7 if he pushes. Next guess would be spade draw because if he goes AI you can fold but if he just calls and you make your flush you can stack him, hope you don't spray any more coke on your keyboard! When he calls your first raise he's getting in deep and knows he might face more big bets on the later rounds hence the name "implied threat", so he's putting his stack on the line.
|
|
{solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Lol, I never played this hand. Putting me on a specific hand here anyway is kinda silly. Putting me on a hand detracts from the point.
Ever hear of Schrödinger's Cat?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schrodinger%27s_cat
Every poker hand is like this. The actual cards someone happens to hold is as non-deterministic as the river card. Unless you can line up an exact line to an exact hand based on information on an exact player. However, as thinking players we should (almost) never do this against another thinking player because once they know what we have they can't make a mistake.
|
|
|
|
arkana
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
|
|
Is this what you are talking about Fnord?
Pressure points:
http://doubleas.blogspot.com/2005_05...96753669817010
|
|
|
|
KY_Ace
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
|
|
I forgot that this hand was fictional. I'm thinking of the concept that you are getting at here. If you flopped a set and you wanted to play for stacks you would make this raise on the flop followed by a bigger bet on the turn and an even bigger bet on the river and the TAG knows this. Your raise is big eneugh that if the TAG reraises he's commited to the pot and he's stacked if you've got him beat. If your opponent is competent and thinking about future rounds, he'll fold any hand that he's not willing to risk his stack on, "implied risk". He wouldn't want to call an extra $12 on the flop just to fold on the turn when you bet again. With his bet there is $14 in the pot, you're risking $18 to take down the pot on the flop, whether you have a hand or not. A TAG that will c-bet HU %90 of the time will only be able to risk his stack with 10%-20% of his hands which makes your play very profitable as long as it's not overused. It's like an order of magnitude thing, the $6 bet is step 1, the next order of magnitude is the raise to $18, the next order of magnitude is an AI. Are we even on the same wavelength or are you unable to type because your keyboard is soaked with soda beyond all recognition?
|
|
{solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Alright now for the twist.
So far we've gone forward with the assumption our TAgg feels he's playing for stacks if he continues with his hand. However, many weaker and some not so weak players will often just call the raise, check/fold the turn, but attack any weakness. Or just check/call it all the way. Really weak players will often call the flop bet (in for a penny, in for a pound) then get second thoughts once the turn hits.
Against a call, how often should be follow through on the turn?
Consider that it's quite possible Rippy makes a lot of money following through here.
|
|
|
|
Demiparadigm
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
|
|
I think this would be entirely based on the strength of our actual hand, and the mentality of our opponent.
If I did have air, and was called on the turn by a tight player, I would follow through almost 100% of the time for a bet of more than half their remaining stack. Against a player who is likely to call with one pair, I would follow through exactly never.
|
|
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
|
|
KY_Ace
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
|
|
If he calls the flop he's decided to look you up with a big ace or he's on a spade draw. I'm assuming that you don't have much of a hand and you're asking "should I fire another another round with cock?" Well you've got $48 left to work with and the pot is $40. If the turn is a spade and he checks I think I'd give up on the hand, he's commited with a good ace and he's CRing if he's got spades. If the turn is a non-spade I'd bet $12. No matter what the river is you have to bet it now, the pot is $64 and you have $36 left. If the river is a non-spade bet just eneugh to get the King high spade draw to fold, $15?? If the river is a spade and he checks, he's got an ace and he's scared of the flush, you have to push, "$36 to call TAG!!!"
|
|
{solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by KY_Ace
If he calls the flop he's decided to look you up
|
You would think this, but you would think a lot of things, then you actually start playing with these guys...
|
|
|
|
KY_Ace
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by KY_Ace
If he calls the flop he's decided to look you up
|
You would think this, but you would think a lot of things, then you actually start playing with these guys... |
I wouldn't be certain of it but the probability would be high eneugh that I wouldn't want to risk another $48 to steal $40.
Personally if my hand isn't strong eneugh to play for stacks I'll call the flop raise and see if my opponent has a big eneugh hand, or big eneugh balls to bet big on the turn before I laydown a good ace.
However I don't know high stakes NL players styles because I have only played SnGs for high stakes and the ring game thing is a little new to me and I'm stuck at low limits right now because of personal problems draining my bankroll, Divorce, Jail, Fines ect.... hard to move up in limits when you make $400 in a week playing playing $10 NL and then instead of moving up you have to pay back rent or pay a fine to stay out of jail or replace shit that your soon to be ex-wife bitch stole from you when you were in jail. It's sad that I cleared over $30,000/year for the last 2 years but I haven't had over $1,000 in my bankroll since June/05 when I replaced the transmission in the car that my bitch ex-wife who moved in with another man drives now. Fuck it... that's life... sometimes you get rivered, things can only get better now! More free time , less expenses, less drama. WSOP here I come!
|
|
{solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
|
|
Fnord
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by KY_Ace
I wouldn't be certain of it but the probability would be high eneugh that I wouldn't want to risk another $48 to steal $40.
Personally if my hand isn't strong eneugh to play for stacks I'll call the flop raise and see if my opponent has a big eneugh hand, or big eneugh balls to bet big on the turn before I laydown a good ace.
|
I  poker!
|
|
|
|
KY_Ace
|
|
Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by arkana
|
WOW!!! This is an excellent read, opens my eyes to concepts that I've only thought about breifly. This is high level poker, these concepts really exploit the fact that in high stakes games your cards are not a big factor because there is rarely a showdown!
|
|
{solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
|
|
Pingviini
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 1,090
|
|
and arkana takes the fame of "founding" that post, arkana = <>< 
Fnord, not only does rippy (I guess) follow through on turn but some big names, like Strassa2, have said that they like to brush off the weakies on turn. That is also what I almost always do here (unless the villain is a good aggro and CR's his fair share, and I dont have aces up or better), there are a lot of players who would call your re-raise here with AQ/AJ and then check and fold to a big bet on turn because they wanted to see "wherethey were at". Defending against a good aggressive player who has position is extremely tough, I dont want to play for stacks with AK here.
next discussion should be about how to defend against guys like that when hero is OOP. You have to either give up a whole lot of hands of start pushing a lot more to put it briefly IMO.
|
|
"Poker is a simple math game" -Aba20
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
