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Pokez
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04-09-2006, 08:39 PM
Post subject: Is climbing this quickly indicative of something? Or normal?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 20
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I've only really played for about a week, and with low limits (5-10 cent blinds, lol). But I've been winning a ton by sticking to a solid gameplan whenever I play. For example, I deposited 25 into UltimateBet cashed out at 95 to play at another site, which I'm now doing just as well. Does this mean my gameplan is pretty good? I'm afraid it's too good to be true, and I'm going to hit a big downswing suddenly. Any thoughts on what to expect, or how this sort of run usually ends?
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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If you have only played a week, you really have no idea of your true winrate. You could very easily just be running extrememly well. Stick to your game and don't play outside your bankroll. And don't tilt when the inevitable downswing comes.
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Warpe
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04-09-2006, 09:38 PM
Post subject: Re: Is climbing this quickly indicative of something? Or nor
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#3 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pokez
I'm going to hit a big downswing suddenly.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Expecting to win easily is capable of ruining your mentality. Atleast it's a problem I have. You become too impatient and then everything goes to hell. Today I blew like $40 in "calling station mode" before I really noticed something weird was going on and stopped.. my god.. took me 3 hours just now to recover those losses.
But if you can stick to your gameplan in times of adversity (some bad beats etc will happen) then it's possible you can keep doing well. And if you move up a stake, the game will be played differently. Today I tried 2-tabling at 20NL and got quite disoriented by a much more aggressive opposition, frequently reraising me etc. Finally I got sick of it, thinking "they can't ALWAYS have better cards than me" and stuck it out - ofcourse getting destacked in the process. So again $20 down. But I continued playing at the other table, slowly recollected my wits, and managed to recover those losses too. (ugh so much playing for a net +$8...)
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aokrongly
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 863
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I'm not sure what your solid gameplan is, but if it's tight and selective then this isn't that uncommon. Some people call it the newbie circle of death. Essentially new players (who have some decent idea how to be selective and carefull about what they are doing (and don't run into bad luck) can do pretty well pretty quickly - especially with bonuses adding on.
If I had to give it a name I would call it "playing clean". There is no negative, toxic buildup, so you're just playing poker. You're scared. You fold quick. You may give your opponent too much credit, but you're not taking any bad hits that wipe out your stack. And, you aren't playing yesterday's bad beats and bad choices.
The circle of death starts when it begins to feel easy. You loosen up. You gain confidence. Also, your aces get punked once or twice, or someone catches lucky to outdraw you for a big loss. Now you're starting to collect toxins.
"I'm not going to have my aces cracked again" "JQs is a better hand for me than KK", etc for whatever little bugs get in your ear.
Then your play drifts. Actually your confidence drifts higher as your play degrades. Then there's a tipping point where something gives in your brain from stress and you tilt off a bunch of money - putting you back at square 1 or worse. Then you think, "that was stupid, i'm going to do good again." But you try to rush back to your high water mark instead of rising to it naturally over time.
I don't know if this sounds familiar to anyone else. But I don't think it's uncommon to win alot early. I think it's impossible to maintain and how you address the ups and downs of poker determine whether you will get good for the long haul or go on perma-tilt where no matter what you win you end up pissing it away with 5% stupid play that negates the 95% brilliant play up to that point.
That's my opinion.
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Xo_Sirk_oX
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 96
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i think if you are comfortable at that then stay that way.. Soon your going to get into the. I should play a couple more hands phase That is where the BR can go down the tubes
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Do not let the last play cloud the current.
Current Goal - Build a BR on PS from $5.81
Current BR $7.41
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Muxy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canadian LOLUH'S AND AMERICAN LOLUHS
Posts: 1,529
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I think you are going through the "newbie circle of death"
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...poker-9214.htm
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Pokez
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 20
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Sweet, great replies. I read and understand what the circle of death is; how should I go about trying to prevent this from happening? I feel like you guys are making it out to be like some imminent day of judgement. In what ways should I prevent this? (Is it even preventable?) Or rather, minimize the effects of this process.
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aokrongly
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 863
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there's a 12 step program. First you must admit you are a newbie. Next you must surrender to a higher power. 
The answer is to focus on the Process of playing proper poker, not the results. Newbies get sucked into a big win and they want to repeat it. If not the first winning session, then some other. Then they play for the result and not the process. So:
1. Know what cards you play and how you play them.
2. Follow "your" plan of action to the best of your ability
3. Record notes about hands and sessions so you can learn
4. Think of your first 25,000 hands as a test. (Many winning players on this site play 25,000 hands per Month! 25,000 isn't that many.
5. Take a long view where the process of playing to your best ability is more important than winning any particular pot.
That's a start, IMHO
Oh I forgot a big one - BR Management. Read the Bankroll managment stickie and follow it. If you do then you will have the buffer you need to play poker, if you don't follow it then no amount of skill can overcome the deficit.
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Xo_Sirk_oX
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 96
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Quote:
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In what ways should I prevent this?
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I think no. But by knowing that it can/does/will happen you take action in knowing what to do when it does happen. You do not have to be "one of those guys". You at least of read the articles and since you have the knowledge and can correct the situation before you get into a downward spiral.
Make sure to take a break. During the first bit it will be hard. The "high" you are on is fun ( We all liked it ). Some of the more "advanced" players can get more into the minimize aspect. I have not played online to hit "hardcore" lows yet.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pokez
Sweet, great replies. I read and understand what the circle of death is; how should I go about trying to prevent this from happening? I feel like you guys are making it out to be like some imminent day of judgement. In what ways should I prevent this? (Is it even preventable?) Or rather, minimize the effects of this process.
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Keep doing what you're doing and you should do fine, but as you put more time in - even if you're playing well - you'll run into what is politely called "variance". Every player has bad runs...so, yes, it is an imminent day of judgement. The best way to minimize or (rather) ride out its effects is to stick to the game that you're winning with in the first place and play within your roll at all times. We could go on...but there's lots of threads on the subject, so browse...
Sounds like you have your head on straight. You should do fine.
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