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jyms
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06-15-2006, 01:54 PM
Post subject: chasing a set
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#1 (permalink)
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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what is the standard line for middle PP and trying to hit your set? Say 66-JJ in, or out of position. You raised 3x pre flop to thin the herd and get 2 or 3 callers. On the flop you miss the set but there are overcards. If I put one of the callers on a flopped higher pair, do I call a raise and up to how much, from both early and late position? Do I just go with pot odds after missing the flop or are implied odds still of value to carry on? When do you muck it? I have until now just folded to any raise if scare cards are out and I'm bet into. I do sometimes C-bet from early position after being the pre flop raiser but I don't want this to be my standard on a missed flop because at the lower stakes they call alot with anything and I can't get the reads on these guys. If reraised I bail immediately.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Calling from pot odds alone to hit your set is pretty futile, since it's a 2-outer.
Let's say the pot is $10, and we know you have 9% to turn your set (18% over turn+river) then that means you can't even call a $2 bet for pot odds alone. (2/14=14% which is more than your 9% to hit).
So obviously if you want to call, it's for implied odds, and you probably need more expected revenue than that to make it worthwile.. ie a read that you can bluff him off of his hand on certain occassions.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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You're chasing a 2-outer so the standard is basically check/fold OOP on a flop with overs that likely hit one of your opponents, although I'll c-bet HU and sometimes against two, depending on reads.
In position, c-bet the flop if it's checked to you, hover your foot over the brake if you get called but consider firing a second barrel if you get checked to again. A lot of players will auto-call a CO/BTN raise but give it up on the turn. Do it too much though - an aware player that hits the flop will start to slowplay you in those situations.
In general, set it or forget it is the best rule. Chasing 2-outers is a leak. C-betting too much is as well, so pick your spots carefully.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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The problem with using the c-bet for me, is I use it enough now from the blinds, the times I think someone is trying a steal after a couple of callers or after missing flops that have scare cards, say a high pair on board or 3 to a flush to represent. I'm trying to stay more with the numbers and stop over thinking the calling stations. I think that i'm starting to overplay the tricks ahead of the stakes. I need to stay within the game I'm at.( micro-donkatorium) I've just resently been on this run of PP but seem to never catch the flop. I see quite a few fall on the turn and river but it's usually too late. I don't want the fact that I seem to be seeing more lately to skew my thinking into "i'll catch it next card so just call this one raise"
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
I'm trying to stay more with the numbers and stop over thinking the calling stations. I need to stay within the game I'm at.( micro-donkatorium) I've just resently been on this run of PP but seem to never catch the flop. I see quite a few fall on the turn and river but it's usually too late. I don't want the fact that I seem to be seeing more lately to skew my thinking into "i'll catch it next card so just call this one raise"
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Don't ever call a raise to chase your 2-outer, and don't c-bet against microstakes calling stations.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Thank's. I think that was my point 
Good job last night by the way. I'm just starting to figure out who the players are in this forum and your movin' up the ranks. Were ya playing other games at the time or just the gaunlet tourney to focus. 
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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TY. Just played the Gauntlet last night. g/f just got back from a business trip so my only excuse for playing poker was that I had an FTR "commitment".
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yorib
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Oak Park, IL
Posts: 281
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Jack: You've accidentally doubled the likelihood of catching your set, it's about 4.3% on the turn (and another 4.3% on the river).
I hate to say, "It all depends", but it really does (I'm talking about $10NL). If I raise, it's 4xbb+1bb per caller, and the c-bet (or call) depends on the flop and what I have. If I'm TT/JJ the only way I won't bet is if the flop is a dissaster (say straight/monotone flop) and there are multiple callers. The other ones are very flop dependent. What's also important is whether or not I want to hit my set. (For instance, if there are already two hearts down, then I'm not sure I want my 8h to hit. Or, if the board is JTx and if I have 99/88 I really don't want my set to hit).
Finally, I'm always surprised how often a mid-ish pp winds up holding up and winning the pot. This doesn't mean I'll call a raise/reraise post-flop, but if the bets are low in proportion to the pot I may call where I would otherwise fold.
Good luck.
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KingLizard
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 296
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
I'm trying to stay more with the numbers and stop over thinking the calling stations. I need to stay within the game I'm at.( micro-donkatorium) I've just resently been on this run of PP but seem to never catch the flop. I see quite a few fall on the turn and river but it's usually too late. I don't want the fact that I seem to be seeing more lately to skew my thinking into "i'll catch it next card so just call this one raise"
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Don't ever call a raise to chase your 2-outer, and don't c-bet against microstakes calling stations. |
This statement is so true.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by yorib
Jack: You've accidentally doubled the likelihood of catching your set, it's about 4.3% on the turn (and another 4.3% on the river).
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Woops, indeed you are correct.
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