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chasing flush draws

  
 
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Lukie
Old 05-13-2006, 02:56 PM     Post subject: chasing flush draws #1 (permalink)  
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 Alright I constantly hear people b***ing and whining about this, so I think it's a good topic to discuss.

Let's start with a hand that never happened.

NL400 full ring, eff stacks 800

UTG raises to $14, MP calls, hero (BN) calls with Ad4d, blinds fold.

Flop Td 9d 2c

UTG leads $30, MP folds, hero...............

(if hero calls here, and turns his flush, the average player is going to whine and moan about how 'he didn't have odds to hit his flush').

Let's be real here though, the decision here is between calling and raising, and we aren't folding. This particular villain likes to c-bet, gives up on the turn often, but plays his made hands agressively, so between implied odds and the value in floating here, we decide to call.

Turn bricks, 5s.

UTG leads for $70. Hero.......

(takes a second to think. Try to put the other guy on a hand, figure out your pot odds, guestimate your implied odds, count your outs (both to the nuts, and others like board pairing diamonds and perhaps your ace, and do some other things as well.)

Alright so the pot is $100 before the bet (a tad more but i'm ignoring that for simplicity's sake, and because I can), $170 after the other guy's lead. This guy probably has an overpair. Let's count all 9 of our flush outs as clean outs, and the ace as one (out of 3). So we have 10 outs and will hit 10/46 times on the river. AKA 3.6:1 against hitting. We are getting 170:70, or 2.4:1 in pot odds. OH HELL, LET'S CALL ANYWAYS!!

River 2d. Pot is $240.

His overpair loves the denomination of that card but hates the suit.

he checks. We bet $150. he calls. we win. Our turn call was goot.

Let's back track to the turn for a second.

Let's say if we improve (any of our 10 outs), he will call a $150 bet on the end 2 out of 3 times. So we get $100 value on the river when we improve.

He leads for $70 into $100 pot, pot is now $170. Add $100 value on the river for when we hit. its a $70 call to win $270, or 27:7, or about 3.9:1 in implied odds. And we only needed 3.6:1. So our turn call was +EV, but you can be damn sure that this guy complained and said wtf etc. yada yada yada, when he's the donkey that shouldn't have paid off the flush.

The end.

ps, don't be a fish and call pot sized bets with non nut draws when the other guy isn't going to pay you off, it's stupid, pointless, and just costs yourself money.

edit: changed our hand from A5s to A4s because I'm retarded
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Lukie
Old 05-13-2006, 02:58 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 btw I counted the ace as one out because

1) it might not be good

2) if it is good, you arent' getting much value out of it
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 05-13-2006, 03:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 why aren't the two fives outs?
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Lukie
Old 05-13-2006, 03:30 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 because i didn't realize that we paired our kicker on the turn
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Lukie
Old 05-13-2006, 03:31 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 thanks for pointing that out

I changed our hand from A5s to A4s.
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 05-14-2006, 03:01 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I call flop fold turn to a big bet.There problem solved.I CR the ocassional TAP or maniac on the flop a la Erick Lindgreen style for suckout equity.
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