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Chances of higher trips on the flop.

  
 
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r8ed
Old 02-16-2005, 04:35 PM     Post subject: Chances of higher trips on the flop. #1 (permalink)  
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STT with 8 people left and I get 44. Flop comes out 10 3 4. Then one of the many voices in my head says "remember you read on FTR that if you get trips on the flop, it is very rare somebody else had trips?". So, I made a small bet to get money in the pot and some action. One guy raises and I call. I figured he may have an overpair in his hand but he called a min-raise prelflop. Some useless card comes out and he goes all in. I call. He had trip 10s.

Does anyone have a percentage to quantify "rarely" here? Thanks.
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jobupoker
Old 02-16-2005, 04:41 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I posted pretty much the same question in another thread:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=7093

The response is pretty much that getting beat by another set is rare enough to not worry about.

I'm not too happy with that answer but I think it's something you just have to live with. I'm not sure that I would ever be able to put a player on trips and NOT an overpair or two of a kind. So maybe thats a good question.

How would you be able to distinguish someone who has trips from someone who has hit 2 pair or has an over pair?
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dalecooper
Old 02-16-2005, 04:43 PM     Post subject: Re: Chances of higher trips on the flop. #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by r8ed
STT with 8 people left and I get 44. Flop comes out 10 3 4. Then one of the many voices in my head says "remember you read on FTR that if you get trips on the flop, it is very rare somebody else had trips?". So, I made a small bet to get money in the pot and some action. One guy raises and I call. I figured he may have an overpair in his hand but he called a min-raise prelflop. Some useless card comes out and he goes all in. I call. He had trip 10s.

Does anyone have a percentage to quantify "rarely" here? Thanks.
How about "very rarely." I don't know the exact percentage, but look at it this way:

1. Let's assume for the sake of argument that every time you have a low pocket pair, someone else has a higher pocket pair and is in the pot with you. This isn't true, and in fact I would guess it happens less than half the time if that much, but we'll ignore that for now.

2. The chance of you hitting a set on the flop in the first place is roughly 1 in 9. The chance of him hitting a set on the flop is the same.

3. Therefore, even if there was always another player in the hand with a higher pocket pair - which is not the case - the chance of set over set happening is about 1 in 80 (and I think I'm estimating a bit high on all my calculations here). If we presumed you played the same starting cards 80 or so times, you should see about 60 times where neither of you has a set, about 18 times that one of you has a set and the other doesn't, and 1 time where two sets come up and you lose a lot of money.

Math majors, correct me if I'm wrong.
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r8ed
Old 02-16-2005, 05:22 PM #4 (permalink)  
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"So you're saying there's a chance" - JimCarey, Dumb and Dumber

That's along the lines I was looking for - thank dalecooper. If your math is correct, I'll make the same call every time.
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SteveO
Old 02-16-2005, 07:37 PM #5 (permalink)  
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It is common enough that it cost me between $5-600 over the course of 3 days when I lost set over set repeatedly. I also went through a string where I narrowly missed being involved in set over set over set situations. I laid down on the flop b/c of all the heavy action only to see the turn or river would have brought my set, then let out a curse, then see the players show their cards and they both had flopped better sets.

Nevertheless, it should be uncommon enough that you don't worry about it. Just like when your FH gets cut down by a better FH or 4 of a kind.
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r8ed
Old 02-16-2005, 08:49 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I got out-FH'd on the same day. I had a rough day at the sitNgo's yesterday. Came in 2nd, 3rd, and out of the money about 6 times - twice in 4th. These "rarely occurs" hands contributed along with some poor decisions and tough cards.
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-16-2005, 11:05 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I have a weird obsession with math and odds, so here is the exact answer to your question:

Your odds of getting a pocket pair are 1:16
the odds one of your opponents (assuming full ring) also had a pocket pair are about 1:2
the odds of your flopping a set are 1:8
The odds of your opponent also flopping a set are 1:12
for combined odds of 1:3072, or about 0.03%

take what you want from that.
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-16-2005, 11:21 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Sorry, we already know you have a pocket pair, so the odds are actually 1:192 or 0.5%
If we put your opponent on a higher pocket pair, we are at 1:96 or just over 1%
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-16-2005, 11:29 PM #9 (permalink)  
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As for strange odds, I watched a pot yesterday where 3 players limped preflop, EP had 77, LP had 99 and BB had 74
flop came 744 EP bet the pot, everyone calls
turn came 9 All 3 players go all in,
LP won with 9s full, and broke both the players who flopped a boat.
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-17-2005, 02:00 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Oh, and if your opponent has an overpair and calls down your bets, It's another 9%chance he'll make trips by the river.

So I'm goin' with there is only a 90% chance you have the best hand.

Is that enough info?
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Hubris1
Old 02-17-2005, 08:56 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Oh, and if your opponent has an overpair and calls down your bets, It's another 9%chance he'll make trips by the river.

So I'm goin' with there is only a 90% chance you have the best hand.

Is that enough info?
Edit: Overpair pocket has 8.4
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hankr
Old 02-17-2005, 03:06 PM #12 (permalink)  

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I am confused as to what is being asked-and-answered. May I pose a similar, tighter question?

The Givens:
10-player ring
all with pocket pairs go to the river
I hold a pocket pair

Flop gives me an immediate set.

What are the odds another player also pulls a "hidden" set (ignoring sets from paired boards, which obviously change hand-play-strategy):
a) Just on the Flop?
b) By the Turn?
c) By the River?

The essence is to know just how "good" a "hidden" set may be vis-a-vis other "hidden" sets. These odds would then be adjusted for whether your set is lo-middle-hi on the board.

Thanks...
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aleksandr
Old 02-17-2005, 04:43 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Well, one of the 5 cards on the board cannot be tripped up because you have the trips, so there are 4 cards left that can give your opponent a set, thus, the odds of your opponent holding a PP (about 1/2, dunno the exact) * (1 - the odds of none of those 4 cards giving him a set) =

.5 * (1 - (47/49 * 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46)) = 7.91%

This is assuming your set is the lowest set on the board.

Second lowest - 6%
Mid - 4%
Second highest - 2%

So at worst you're 92% to win if no draws are showing and nobody pulls a boat or overpair trips out of their nuggets. Trips should be well slowplayed or bet to snot, always, fear only the obvious draw.





As an additional bonus, I have prepared a poorly mathed chart to see if your PP is beaten by a higher PP preflop (assuming 50% chance of opponent's PP)
KK: 3.8%
QQ: 7.7%
JJ: 11.5%
TT: 15.4%
99: 19.2%
88: 23.1%
77: 26.9%
66: 30.8%
55: 34.6%
44: 38.5%
33: 42.3%
22: ~48%
Operation Learn to Read
Reads: 7 posted
Money: $31
SNGs: 0
MTTs: 0
 
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hankr
Old 02-17-2005, 06:48 PM #14 (permalink)  

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Wow... thanks for the quick and thorough analysis.

It tells me that with so many more-obvious things to be concerned-with on most boards, worrying about an opponent's (better) hidden-set isn't one of them.... But once in a while, up to 8% of the time depending on your hi-middle-lo position on the board with YOUR set, it WILL happen.

Thanks again...
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dalecooper
Old 02-17-2005, 07:13 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Pretty much, all this math means - all in with that set unless there's an apparent reason not to (flush, straight). Fear of another set shouldn't make you hesitate. You'll win so much of the time that trying to sniff out that rare losing scenario isn't worth the effort.
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Phew72
Old 02-18-2005, 02:34 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
As for strange odds, I watched a pot yesterday where 3 players limped preflop, EP had 77, LP had 99 and BB had 74
flop came 744 EP bet the pot, everyone calls
turn came 9 All 3 players go all in,
LP won with 9s full, and broke both the players who flopped a boat.
Wow, that is one screwed up hand.

It's hands like these that give online poker rooms a bad name.
<Jessie May>Try reading that poker face.
<Grub Smith>There's a lot of face to read. It really is a big head.
 
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Bmxicle
Old 02-28-2005, 04:41 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Hmmm....this happened to me today, trips were the only logical thing he could have had, but he was a complete fish so usually theres no logic involved, so i gave him all my money.
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Greedo017
Old 02-28-2005, 08:30 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 lovely. I just finish reading this thread, and i'm thinking to myself, i must be pretty lucky i've never had my set busted by a higher set...

and then i lose 40 bucks to a higher set... i'm just lucky the guy didn't raise higher. I knew he had it though, somehow. earlier in the night it was me vs him, i had ak he had jj flop came kj6, he got 35 bucks off me. then i rebuilt my stack up the 40 bucks, and there he comes again, i get a set of threes he gets a set of kings. gets another 40 from me. painful.
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Usuyami
Old 02-28-2005, 08:54 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Happens to everyone. I've already come to except it. Does that mean you can't be angry? No. Go punch a wall.
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stevedonel
Old 02-28-2005, 02:18 PM #20 (permalink)  
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I lost set over set 3 times yesterday. On the last one, I threw a pen; it shattered against the wall. Ink sucks. The painting and carpet cleaning ensues.
Is that guy still part of the forum??
 
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Greedo017
Old 02-28-2005, 09:42 PM #21 (permalink)  
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 i'm not too mad about it, it just can be frustrating to work yourself up a 40 dollar profit, twice, and have it shattered.
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dsaxton
Old 02-28-2005, 10:17 PM #22 (permalink)  
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It's unlikely enough to where you should still gamble for all your money on a board without straights or flushes.
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aleksandr
Old 03-09-2005, 02:27 AM #23 (permalink)  
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Trips = teh nuts on drawless upaired boards. Raise. More than half the time they put you on your stack they have 2pair or worse trips, but not THAT much more.
Operation Learn to Read
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Bmxicle
Old 03-09-2005, 03:08 AM #24 (permalink)  
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I played a hand a while ago where there were three people.

Trip 5's
Trip 7's
TRip 6's

luckily i had the sevens haha, that was a cool hand
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ilikeaces86
Old 03-09-2005, 03:11 AM #25 (permalink)  
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 Set's are a license to print money so when you are lucky enough to hit one start printing it don't shut down the printing press.
 
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