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wulabs
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05-15-2005, 06:01 AM
Post subject: chance of flopping nuts!?! probabilities please need help ca
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 1
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hi
I'minterested in finding out the probabilities of floppingn nuts. I guess thebest way to calcuate that is to calcuate each of the probabilities of flopping royal flush, quads, boat, etc....
Doesanybody know the probabilities of flopping each of these? Can you show the calculations too? thanks
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ekillian
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 235
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this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
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Depends your hand!
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DoGGz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
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Depends your hand!
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Estrop
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 207
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
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Depends your hand!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Estrop
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Originally Posted by doggz
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
...
Depends your hand!
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mgobluefb
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 172
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
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Originally Posted by Estrop
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Originally Posted by doggz
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
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Depends your hand!
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mgobluefb
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
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Originally Posted by Estrop
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Originally Posted by doggz
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
...
Depends your hand!
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The_Cheat
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Takin yo' scratch
Posts: 173
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
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Originally Posted by mgobluefb
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
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Originally Posted by Estrop
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Originally Posted by doggz
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
...
Depends your hand!
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Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The english prefer tea and crumpets. Americans prefer to kick your ass.
-'rilla
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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The only hand that can be considered the absolute nuts in all situations is a Royal Flush. Since, no matter the hole cards, it requires 3 specific cards, the computation is as follows:
3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 0.000051 = 0.0051%
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The_Cheat
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Takin yo' scratch
Posts: 173
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i still have never seen one...
::sigh::
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Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The english prefer tea and crumpets. Americans prefer to kick your ass.
-'rilla
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
i still have never seen one...
::sigh::
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A few weeks ago, I busted out of a tournament when my AK met QJs. Both all-in preflop. Flop was AKT, two of his suit. Turn brought the A of his suit. My AAAKK lost 
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The_Cheat
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Takin yo' scratch
Posts: 173
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that sucks.
i had a 7777K go down once. that was lame
lost to KKKK10 playing omaha.
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Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The english prefer tea and crumpets. Americans prefer to kick your ass.
-'rilla
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mgobluefb
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 172
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
i still have never seen one...
::sigh::
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I have gotten four royal flushes in the last 6 months.
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journey075
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
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i've had 3 in my life. on one of them i held K10s and i hit the royal on the turn.
it was a 6 way all-in as there was a straight on the board by the river and 3 people thought that everyone was playing the board even though it was 3 suited.
that was a $400 pot in $100 NLHE. pretty sweet.
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tcpj4
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 109
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I saw a Royal in a quickie 5.50 sng once, though I've never gotten one.
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The_Cheat
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Takin yo' scratch
Posts: 173
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mgobluefb
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
i still have never seen one...
::sigh::
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I have gotten four royal flushes in the last 6 months. |
ya, well, my dad can beat up your dad!
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Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The english prefer tea and crumpets. Americans prefer to kick your ass.
-'rilla
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Staple Gun
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
Posts: 812
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
The only hand that can be considered the absolute nuts in all situations is a Royal Flush. Since, no matter the hole cards, it requires 3 specific cards, the computation is as follows:
3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 0.000051 = 0.0051% |
Actually flopping the pure nuts that can not be outdrawen no matter what someone else has can only be done if...
You flop a straight flush
and...
One of your cards is 10 or higher,
or
One of your hole cards is on the highest end of your straight flush
*Only exception is if you flop a 5-high straight flush and you dont hold the ace
However if you are talking about flopping the temporary nuts you would need to find all the different ways your specific hand could flop the nuts.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Staple Gun
Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
The only hand that can be considered the absolute nuts in all situations is a Royal Flush. Since, no matter the hole cards, it requires 3 specific cards, the computation is as follows:
3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 0.000051 = 0.0051% |
Actually flopping the pure nuts that can not be outdrawen no matter what someone else has can only be done if...
You flop a straight flush
and...
One of your cards is 10 or higher,
or
One of your hole cards is on the highest end of your straight flush
*Only exception is if you flop a 5-high straight flush and you dont hold the ace
However if you are talking about flopping the temporary nuts you would need to find all the different ways your specific hand could flop the nuts. |
Reread what I said. I was referring to flopping a Royal Flush, thus assuming that both of your hole cards were 10 or higher and of the same suit.
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Staple Gun
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
Posts: 812
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
The only hand that can be considered the absolute nuts in all situations is a Royal Flush. Since, no matter the hole cards, it requires 3 specific cards, the computation is as follows: |
I dont want to start an argument but if you have
 
and the flop comes
  
that is the absolute nuts no matter what happens and it is not a royal flush. I am not saying you calculation is incorrect, just what you are calculating.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Ah, yes, I agree. Sorry, I misunderstood what you were disagreeing with.
I believe the same calculation applies, so the probability above holds, and can be extended to include any two suited connectors above 54.
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Staple Gun
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
Posts: 812
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Yes, the same probability would apply except for suited connectors with cards 10 or above. for example...
10  J would have 4 ways to make the absolute nuts...
7 8 9 and 8 9 Q
9 Q K and Q K A
This being said, it would be your calculation multiplied by 4, therfore it would be 0.0204% or about 1 in every 5,000 hands that you call with 10-Js you will flop absolute nuts.
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mtbottle
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 21
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Had 2 in my life, within 2 months of eachother, both at 2.50/5 NL on pokerroom where they payout 100x the big blind. $1000 free 
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SmackinYaUp
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: B N L
Posts: 1,725
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
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Originally Posted by mgobluefb
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Estrop
Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
...
Depends your hand!
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Not funny. |
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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Quote:
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*Only exception is if you flop a 5-high straight flush and you dont hold the ace
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I just woke up... how does that work?
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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The_Cheat
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Takin yo' scratch
Posts: 173
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
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Originally Posted by mgobluefb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Estrop
Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ekillian
this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
...
Depends your hand!
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Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The english prefer tea and crumpets. Americans prefer to kick your ass.
-'rilla
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Staple Gun
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Gamblers Anonymous
Posts: 812
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
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Originally Posted by mgobluefb
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
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Originally Posted by Estrop
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Originally Posted by doggz
[quote:8d4a91ce37="ekillian"]this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
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Depends your hand!
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[/quote:8d4a91ce37]
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The_Cheat
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Takin yo' scratch
Posts: 173
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Staple Gun
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
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Originally Posted by mgobluefb
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Originally Posted by dwarfman
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Originally Posted by Estrop
[quote:ddae33adc3="doggz"][quote:ddae33adc3="ekillian"]this number will help you be the best poker play EVAR! Ready for it?
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Depends your hand!
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[/quote:ddae33adc3][/quote:ddae33adc3]
this is fun
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Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat
Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The english prefer tea and crumpets. Americans prefer to kick your ass.
-'rilla
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BoondockSaint
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Indiana
Posts: 1,844
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
i still have never seen one...
::sigh::
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Ive never seen one myself yet but 2 days in a row I saw other people get em.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BoondockSaint
Quote:
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Originally Posted by The_Cheat
i still have never seen one...
::sigh::
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Ive never seen one myself yet but 2 days in a row I saw other people get em. |
*rubs the nuts for good luck*
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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EasyT
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05-20-2005, 10:02 PM
Post subject: Re: chance of flopping nuts!?! probabilities please need hel
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#30 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Yo Mamma
Posts: 834
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wulabs
hi
I'minterested in finding out the probabilities of floppingn nuts.
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99% sleeping in boxers.
Only slightly less in briefs.
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