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martindcx1e
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08-29-2007, 04:42 AM
Post subject: Can someone do this math plz?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Can someone do the math to show how many sets on average one should hit in 20k hands? I guess to make it simple just assume that you saw every flop when you held a pp during the 20k hands.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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i bet you could do it if you tried
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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http://www.pokerluckometer.com/setometer.htm
try this
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
i bet you could do it if you tried
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but i don't wanna
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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uhmmm...
6 ways to make each pp x 13 pairs = 78 / 1326 = ~.05882
so, roughly 6% of hands you get a pp, in 20k hands, thats 1200 pps.
flopping a set is roughly 11% (counting quads or a boat it's a little more I think, not counting those it's a little less)
11% of 1200 is 132.
So that's 132 flopped sets... to avoid doing the statistical stuff we'll guesstimate about 200 if you run it out to the river.
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Check out my self-deprecation here!
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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any way to filter pt to see your actual number? i'm such a pt noob. 
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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very cool trainer...bout to dl now
EDIT: ya that prog rocks hard. i just loaded my 22,232 hand db into it and i've amazingly been dealt the almost exact average of 1334 pairs. going by the 11% flop-a-set rule i should have flopped 146-ish sets. i have only flopped 100. i've heard it said before that downswings = below average # of sets and upswings = above average # of sets. also add above/below the average # of AA vs. KK and set-over-set confrontations to the mix. i've had AA vs. KK 1 time and KK vs. AA 5 times. i'm not sure what the average # of set-vs-overpair confrontations should be but i've only had 3 sets-vs-overpairs. i can see why i am in a downswing.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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