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jmontis
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12-22-2004, 06:46 AM
Post subject: can not fcking believe what happened tonight
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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ok so i sit down with some friends for a tourney game, only $5 buyin
but on the 2nd round , i was dealt  
flop comes   
guy went all in, and i folded, because i didn't think i'd hit anything
i checked the river card and it was 
i was just like, holy shit i would have had a royal flush against you, lucky bastard.
of course everyone would say, why didnt you call, well because royal flush seems so impossible :P. But ya it was foolish for me to not
I ended up 2nd place because i kept trying to hit flushes, and missed like 4 of them :/ foolish on my part i suppose
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Xianti
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12-22-2004, 09:47 AM
Post subject: Re: can not fcking believe what happened tonight
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#2 (permalink)
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: facebook.com/xianti
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
of course everyone would say, why didnt you call, well because royal flush seems so impossible :P. But ya it was foolish for me to not
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Assuming his all-in was more than 1/2 the pot (sounds like it was more than the pot), you had to fold. You had a gutshot straight flush draw. Check the pot odds chart:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/chart_pot_odds.html
And the next time "everyone" tells you that you should've called that, show them this chart and this site.
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I ended up 2nd place because i kept trying to hit flushes, and missed like 4 of them :/ foolish on my part i suppose
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Yes. Stop chasing. What happened before should have no affect on how you play your subsequent hands.
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LeFou
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12-22-2004, 01:28 PM
Post subject: Re: can not fcking believe what happened tonight
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#3 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 2,361
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
i was just like, holy shit i would have had a royal flush against you, lucky bastard.
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mm... "would have". We're not too fond of that stuff here.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
I ended up 2nd place because i kept trying to hit flushes, and missed like 4 of them :/ foolish on my part i suppose
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With AI bets it's cut and dried: you need about 3 to 1 to call with flush draw. You don't call or fold based on whether you "think you'll hit anything".
There are no implied odds unless others are acting behind you.
Early in a tournament with AI it's almost as cut and dried: fold. The chips you may pick up are not as valuable as the ones you will probably lose.
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Zangief
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12-22-2004, 03:10 PM
Post subject: Re: can not fcking believe what happened tonight
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#4 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xianti
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
of course everyone would say, why didnt you call, well because royal flush seems so impossible :P. But ya it was foolish for me to not
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Assuming his all-in was more than 1/2 the pot (sounds like it was more than the pot), you had to fold. |
I want to look at this from a pot odds point of view to make sure I understand. Please consider this same hand in a ring game, instead of in a tournament.
The chart says the odds for a gutshot + flush draw completing on the turn or river is 45%.
1 / 45% = 2.22
So am I correct in thinking this is a profitable call if there is more than 0.22 times your opponent's stack before he goes all in?
For example, suppose there is $10 in the pot, your opponent has $20 in his stack and you have $20 in your stack. If you call his all in for $20, you will win a $50 pot 45% of the time, while paying $20 / $50 = 40% for it. Wouldn't this be +EV?
I guess I'm not sure where you got the "Assuming his all-in was more than 1/2 the pot ... you had to fold."
Or am I confusing something? Sometimes I get lost in this stuff.
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Cpaz
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12-28-2004, 05:12 PM
Post subject: Question about pot odds chart
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#5 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 177
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This is probably a dumb question.........Why are there 15 outs on a straight flush draw?
Cpaz
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whileone
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 306
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if you are on a flush draw, you hold 2 hearts, and there are 2 hearts on the board. so, that leaves (13 total hearts - 4 you have) 9 hearts left.
if you are on a straight draw, you hold (say)   , and the board has   , then any 3 will help you, and any 8 will help you so thats 8 more outs. But, we allready counted the  and the  in the flush section
so we're left with 9(flush) + 8(straight) -2(overcount) = 15
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Cpaz
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 177
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Thanks. I actually figured out my flaw in thinking. I was thinking they were saying 15 outs to hit the str flush, not realizing they are figuring for any flush or any straight.
Thanks again.
Cpaz
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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something worth mentioning, in the above case he had 12 outs, because he had an inside straight flush draw, but in the 4567 suited example, there were 15 because it was an outside straight flush draw.
and, it doesn't necessarily have to be a straight flush draw to have the same number of outs. you can have the 12 or 15 outs, and still only be drawing to at best a flush or a straight, but have no way of making a straight flush.
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Yeldud
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 149
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Okay, I am just curious about this.
When you went rabbit hunting and saw the Q, did you account for the burn card? If you did not, you would not have hit the royal.
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If you put all your faith in the river, you are up shit's creek
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koolmoe
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01-15-2005, 02:09 PM
Post subject: Re: can not fcking believe what happened tonight
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#10 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xianti
Assuming his all-in was more than 1/2 the pot (sounds like it was more than the pot), you had to fold.
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That is incorrect. You are an 11:9 underdog (assuming you have to hit the flush or straight to win), so his bet would have to be greater than 4.5x the pot to give you incorrect pot odds.
In a ring game, you can probably call this bet every time and make a profit unless your opponent has grossly overbet. In a tourney, it depends heavily on the situation as to whether a call here is correct.
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