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r8ed
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10-25-2005, 06:56 PM
Post subject: Calling raise from suspected AA/KK with suited cons?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,524
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http://twodimes.net/h/?z=5995
pokenum -h as ad - 6s 7s
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad 1333573 77.88 371831 21.72 6900 0.40 0.781
7s 6s 371831 21.72 1333573 77.88 6900 0.40 0.219
If you know the guy only raises AA/KK/QQ couldn't you call with say 67s and take a shot? You would have to use the same logic as PPs in that if you hit, you can take their stack. What size raise would make this a profitable call?
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STIdrivr
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Southern california
Posts: 580
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yes of course that is when the hidden hands are most profitable, if you hit they will be drawing slim
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
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Those numbers are seeing the hand through to the river. The vast majority of the time you will miss or flop a draw with suited connectors, not a made hand. Do you want to play a draw with AA/KK jamming the pot?
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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{This post has been removed}
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 1423187 83.12 282629 16.51 6488 0.38 0.833
7d 2d 282629 16.51 1423187 83.12 6488 0.38 0.167
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
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r8ed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,524
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Those numbers are seeing the hand through to the river. The vast majority of the time you will miss or flop a draw with suited connectors, not a made hand. Do you want to play a draw with AA/KK jamming the pot?
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Good point. I don't know where to get the stats on hitting 67s on the flop are. I bet it's not that much lower than hitting a pocket pair. Maybe it is. I'm just trying to look at things in a different way.
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STIdrivr
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Southern california
Posts: 580
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im not saying call a huge raise and get crazy if you hit a pair, but most people dont raise much pre flop with AA, i have made a lot of money when i catch to make up for the few bets i lose calling
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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Quote:
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I don't know where to get the stats on hitting 67s on the flop are. I bet it's not that much lower than hitting a pocket pair.
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Flopping a flush: 118-1 (0.84%)
Flopping a straight with connected cards: ~75:1 (1.31) ** varies slightly depending on what two connectors.
Odds of flopping straight or flush with suited connectors: 2.15%
Odds of flopping set with a pocket pair: 7.5:1 (11.8%)
Again, you're tyically throwing money away trying to chase down a high PP with suited connectors.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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r8ed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,524
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Quote:
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I don't know where to get the stats on hitting 67s on the flop are. I bet it's not that much lower than hitting a pocket pair.
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Flopping a flush: 118-1 (0.84%)
Flopping a straight with connected cards: ~75:1 (1.31) ** varies slightly depending on what two connectors.
Odds of flopping straight or flush with suited connectors: 2.15%
Odds of flopping set with a pocket pair: 7.5:1 (11.8%)
Again, you're tyically throwing money away trying to chase down a high PP with suited connectors. |
Wow. Much lower - thanks. I have never done this but somebody I know mentioned it as a possibility. The two-dimes stats (to the river) threw my line of thinking off. I guess even if you threw in hitting two pair or trips it would go up to like 2.3% at most.
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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Calling with suited connectors can be a good move against high pockets if the right circumstances are in place. There are a few, but I post here because of one. So many people misplay a high pocket. They wait too long to JAM. It helps your draw.
I've seen a lot of people throw a modest bet at the flop when they have the high pocket no matter what flops trying to trap or seem weak so they can stimulate a raising war. This is perfect when you called with a suited connector. These kind of people give you pot odds to draw, but that's not all. The implied odds are naturally higher on these types as well because they so badly want to trap you that they misenterpret your aggression on a later street as attacking their false weakness, when in fact you just drew out on them.
How many times have you seen an AA or KK come alive AFTER the board is beating them with 3 suited cards or straight coordination? I see it way too often. Call with suited connectors against slow playing trappers. Allow them to trap themselves.
Not everyone JAMS. Remember that.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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r8ed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,524
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rondavu
How many times have you seen an AA or KK come alive AFTER the board is beating them with 3 suited cards or straight coordination?
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I've done that more often than I should. It's like - "Let's see how much money I can get out of this sucker". Then when the turn comes - "Oh shit! I better take this down while I can". And finally - "Stupid fish. I hate suckouts!".
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edudlive
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 100NL 6max
Posts: 623
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Huge implied odds, but with the likeliness of you to flop of a flush or draw its only a break evenish move. Just call that AA/KK with your ducks instead.
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STIdrivr
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Southern california
Posts: 580
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i have seen people limp with AA and check the flop, i play low limits right now
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