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Calling with gutshot?

  
 
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Jupit3r
Old 01-12-2007, 06:27 AM     Post subject: Calling with gutshot? #1 (permalink)  
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I've been trying to make myself a rule of thumb for calling bets with gutshot draw.

Let's say I have gutshot draw on a rainbow flop and I think I will have the best hand if I hit my draw. I'm in position against one opp. I want to know if it's +EV to call a flop bet. I need to think about 3 different variables. X = the probability the opp will stack off if I hit my straight. Y = opp's effective stack size. B = the size of the bet.

The equation would be $EV/hand = X(0,08 * Y) - B

Let's assume tight players will stack of 20% of the time, semi-loose 30% of the time and loose 40% of the time. And let's assume the stack size is 40 x bet.

EXAMPLES

1. Opp is tight:

X = 0,2 (stack off %)
Y = 20 (stack)
B = 0,5 (bet)

$EV = 0,2(0,08 * 20) - 0,5 = $-0,18

2. Opp is semi-loose:
$EV = 0,3(0,08 * 20) -0,5 = $-0,02

3. Opp is loose:
$EV = 0,4(0,08 * 20) -0,5 = $0,14

So it seems like 40 x bet stack size isn't sufficient for me to call if the values of X are these. I hope someone has made any sense of this gibberish.

QUESTIONS

What values of X would you assign to tight, sl and loose players?
How would you alter the equation?
Do you think my table image is affecting the value of X much?
Do you feel that thinking like this is pointless, and I should just play by the feel of the situation?
How much do you think the stack size in comparison to the bet should be for the call to be +EV?
Am I making a mistake when I'm not considering pot odds at all but only implied odds?
Do you think all of this applies to the similar situation on turn too?
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 01-12-2007, 06:49 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 LOLZ IM TURNING THIS LONG AND ATTENTION SPAN NEEDED POST INTO A JOKE THREAD.
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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Jupit3r
Old 01-12-2007, 06:57 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
LOLZ IM TURNING THIS LONG AND ATTENTION SPAN NEEDED POST INTO A JOKE THREAD.
Now you made me cry big nerdling tears. Your WPP isn't ideal.
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martindcx1e
Old 01-12-2007, 08:26 AM #4 (permalink)  
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my head hurts...
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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Jupit3r
Old 01-12-2007, 09:03 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Ok. So you basically answered one of my questions:

Quote:
Do you feel that thinking like this is pointless, and I should just play by the feel of the situation?
Looks like the programming I've done in the past has tweaked my brain in a peculiar way or maybe I just can't present my thoughts in simple way.

Maybe I'll just call Sklansky about this.
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pokerroomace
Old 01-12-2007, 12:14 PM #6 (permalink)  
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you need 43to4 odds to make the call profitable.
if you're getting half of that i think you can go for the gut shot (5to1). if you're getting less than 5to1 on your money i think you should fold (if you think the only way you can win is by hitting your straight).

if you think your opponent might be stealing - then there is a second way you can win the pot. you don't have to hit to win. you can take the pot away from him on the turn or the river.
also, he might check the turn giving you a free card on the river - in this case you have a 16% chance of hitting
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Pants_101
Old 01-12-2007, 04:06 PM #7 (permalink)  
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If there's a flush draw that comes in you could represent that as well giving you extra outs provided your opp is capable of folding/not drawing himself. I like your attempt to use EV equations, would like to see more of that sort of thing, sadly my maths is rubbish
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Beck
Old 01-13-2007, 07:27 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Player was a weak tighty. and his flop bet had me believing he missed his flop. so I floated OOP hoping to catch any one of my cards for a pair, a 5 or any club for a flush draw or any 9 of an OESD. to many outs not to call.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($19.85)
UTG ($52.60)
UTG+1 ($14.45)
MP1 ($29.50)
Hero ($79.85)
MP3 ($34.45)
CO ($61.80)
Button ($60.70)
SB ($19)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7, 6.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.75) 3, 8, 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $3.5, BB folds, Hero calls $3.50.

Turn: ($13.75) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($13.75) A (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO calls $10.

Final Pot: $33.75

Results in white below:
Hero has 7c 6c (straight, eight high).
CO has Ah Ks (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins $33.75. [/b]
-Beck
 
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Jupit3r
Old 01-13-2007, 07:50 AM #9 (permalink)  
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It's fairly easy to calculate EV for every move you make. The hard part is to figure out what the chances are that the opp will give you his whole stack (or any portion of it) to you. This is the thing that's giving me a headache. There are so many things to consider: opp's image, own image, stack sizes, board texture... and this is what I'm calling the X -factor.

I suppose it's the thing that comes with experience.
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pokerroomace
Old 01-13-2007, 04:32 PM #10 (permalink)  
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ye. but if you add in the fact that you could win the pot without hitting (because you think that your opponent cbet) - you don't need such good odds to play
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dev
Old 01-13-2007, 07:32 PM #11 (permalink)  
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The thing is, you need your opponent to be strong in order to draw to a gut shot profitably.

If all they have is a foldable pair or they are c-beting, you can't really get any implied odds. You need a solid read that you can hit your gutshot and they will seriously think about calling a big bet. It's best, of course, when they have a habit of under-betting a monster (2p or a set) so when you see small bets, you have better odds and they are more likely to pay you off.

I think if you're calling with a gut shot because you think your opponent is weak, you're making a mistake. You might not beat a bluff!
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dev
Old 01-14-2007, 05:10 AM #12 (permalink)  
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I play lots of deep-stack cash game poker, so I do see a lot of situations where I draw to gut shots... here's two examples:

Bodog, waiting for a tourney to start, I was playing a microlimit ring game... I don't know of a converter for bodog hhs, so I just edited it.

Player Information
Devyl (button) :Jc: $25.75
dantehall (SB) :Ks: $15.50

utg calls, I call, v calls, BB checks

pot is 1.00
:Kd: :Qc:

v bets .60, I call

pot is 2.20


v bets .60, I call
pot is 3.40
:Tc:

v bets .60, I raise to 3.00, v calls
rake is .45, pot is 8.95

I was a bit distracted, and I didn't really do the calculations on the flop. I remember the flop call being a bit automatic, seeing if I can catch a good turn, maybe a club or a pair. I tend to like going heads up with uncreative players like this guy, but this call was kind of hopeless. So I recover my senses and the turn comes out. I miss my backdoor flush, I don't make any kind of hand, I can safely put the guy on a pair, so all I have to work with is a gutshot.

Given one card to make a gut shot, you need about 10:1 on your money. He re-bet it on the turn, a really hopeless kind of bet IMO. So I need over 6$ in profit to make this work.

his .60, the 3.40 in the pot, that's 4, I need 2 more. I get 2.40 more, marginally meeting my goal.

So if we have some selective amnesia about the flop call, this hand is alright.

The second happened in a bloodbath of a regular home game... We're playing an advancing limits cash game. We started at $1/$3 NL. I'm on the button, staring directly across the table at a fairly good player. This game was full of gamblers, but he played pretty tight... he was predictable.

V has about $500 in front of him and I have almost $600.
He raises to $10 and I call it, I think a buddy called in the blinds, but I'm not sure. We'll say the pot is $25.

The flop comes out AK9 rainbow. He leads right out for $20 and I call, trying to decide whether or not it's a c-bet. He knows me well enough to know I could have any two.

The turn is an off-suit rag. He bets $45. At this point I can assume he's got a fairly big hand. He would slow down with just AQ or AJ, so it's a set of kings (hoping I have an ace) or it's AK or he was feeling fruity with A9. My money is on AK, and AK can pay me off if a jack comes. I call.

Sure enough, my miracle card hits on the river, he bets $60, I move all in.

I think everyone at the table was pretty surprised by the move. No one gave this guy much action, and here I was, one of three pros in the room, throwing my money into the pot when he obviously had a hand. I thought I could get him to call without thinking if I did it quick enough, but that didn't work.

He managed to lay down his hand after a while in the tank, which makes my calls absolutely terrible. I talked a bit there, I gave away too much... live and learn.

You have to have a really good read on your opponent so that you can get enough money in the pot when you hit.

Yes, naked gut shots can be profitable, but they go much better when they're paired with a flush draw or a pair.

VS :Ad::Kc:
:Ah:
37%-63%

Last thing... This kind of stuff has an effect on your opponent, That comparison between AK and 53s happened at foxwoods, I was calling a shortstack AI with like 4:1 in a $1/$2 game. The guy threatened my life :P. If you want someone on tilt, let them weak-bet you into calling with a gut shot, then beat them over the head with it.
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pokerroomace
Old 01-14-2007, 12:34 PM #13 (permalink)  
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famous gut shot hand in the WSOP main event. it's down to the final 2 players and it's Doyle Brunson vs Stu Ungar. Here's a link for it:

http://www.pokerworldchampion.com/in...article_id=391

stu has implied odds of about 14to1. so he decides to call with his gut shot vs 2 doyle's 2 pair. he stacks doyle and wins the wsop. must have had quite a good read on doyle that hand to realize he could stack him.

i read somewhere that doyle admitted he played the hand badly and that stu played it well. he should have bet a bit more on the flop he said. so he wouldn't give him the correct implied odds.

this hand is a masterclass
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Turska
Old 01-17-2007, 12:36 PM     Post subject: My opinion #14 (permalink)  
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I have played a few years now. When I started playing I did not
call much gutshots. Nowadays I call them or sometimes
even raise them if:

1.) Opponent is weak and I could steal a pot anyway
2.) I get 1/10 odds to call
3.) Passive multiway pots aka family pots.

Beauty of gutshot it is very well hidden.

I dont see calling/not calling gutshots affect my overall winrate
very much though. (that is low stakes NL HE)

So I guess you could decide not to call them if u dont get great
odds.
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jackvance
Old 01-17-2007, 12:47 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 I think calling with a gutshot only really works if you're for the most part floating your opponent anyway, ie you're expecting to take the pot away from him on the turn a good percentage of the time anyway, regardless if you hit.
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aqn
Old 01-17-2007, 05:37 PM     Post subject: Why 43 to 4 to hit a gut shot on the turn? #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerroomace
you need 43to4 odds to make the call profitable.
Why 43 to 4? Shouldn't it be 11 to 1?

On the flop, he'd have seen 5 cards, which left 48 cards.
There are four cards that will make the gut shot on the turn, so that's 4 out of 48,
which is a probability of one out of 12, and which is odds of 11 to 1?
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jackvance
Old 01-17-2007, 05:50 PM #17 (permalink)  
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jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point
 52-5=47, not 48
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aqn
Old 01-18-2007, 09:52 PM     Post subject: 1+1=3! #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
52-5=47, not 48
Right you are!

I hate it when my deficiency in algebra casts aspersions on my proficiency in probability!
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