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Is calling AI with AA -EV ever??

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Pingviini

08-10-2005, 07:33 PM Post subject: Is calling AI with AA -EV ever??

#1 (permalink)

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Is there a possibility that callling AA in RING to, lets say 7AI's in front of you, is negative EV? I know that the chances of winning the pot arent that great anymore but arent the pot odds always good enough for calling.

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EricE

08-10-2005, 07:35 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Preflop its a good play. There was another post about this also. Its +EV.

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

realgenius

08-10-2005, 08:06 PM

#3 (permalink)

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nothing wrong with calling all in when you know you have the best hand. And when you have AA preflop, you have the best hand.

This is a true story. I'm not a paid actor. FTR does not guarantee any results. People can and do lose money when playing poker.

Rondavu

08-10-2005, 08:12 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Think about it like this...

It's the best hand. Given a confrontation against 700 other hands at the same time that aren't AA, AA will win most of the showdowns. The real question becomes "How long do I wait for my profit?"

The point I'm making is that the more hands that are in with AA, the longer it takes for the positive expected value to reveal. So if everytime you were all in with AA you were heads up, profits would be immediate and apparent. Your bankroll would probably shoot straight into the atmosphere. If every time you were all in with AA you were 7 handed, then enourmous swings would take place where you would come out ahead in 83 years. I'm being overdramatic, but you understand my point. The more hands that are in the pot, the more it stretches the +EV over a longer period of time. It is never negative however.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

CrunchyNuts

08-10-2005, 08:44 PM

#5 (permalink)

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This is the worst situation I could come up with vs 4 players:

Code:

cards     win   %win    lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ad Ah  306412  36.02  543648  63.91  608  0.07  0.360
5c 4c  145642  17.12  704418  82.81  608  0.07  0.171
7d 6d  118164  13.89  731896  86.04  608  0.07  0.139
9s 8s  141081  16.58  708979  83.34  608  0.07  0.166
Jh Th  138761  16.31  711299  83.62  608  0.07  0.163

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1135431
You only need >20% vs 4 opps, so this is quite +EV still. Can anyone think of worse?

Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.

FishMagician

08-10-2005, 09:11 PM

#6 (permalink)

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if there's a bunch of players and one of them has the other two aces I bet it would be -ev. of course I have no statistical data to back this up and I could be way off.

Laeelin

08-10-2005, 09:14 PM

#7 (permalink)

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sure, it's -EV if you do it at the river....

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

EricE

08-10-2005, 09:21 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by FishMagician

if there's a bunch of players and one of them has the other two aces I bet it would be -ev. of course I have no statistical data to back this up and I could be way off.

Naw, in that case, if the As won, you two would just split the others bets. Its still +EV.

Edit: assuming the rake isn't too much.

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

EricE

08-10-2005, 09:41 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Hmmmm.
I am wrong.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 15.1484 % 01.70% 13.45% { AA }
Hand 2: 15.1370 % 01.69% 13.45% { AA }
Hand 3: 20.6509 % 20.64% 00.02% { Ts9s }
Hand 4: 17.5446 % 17.53% 00.02% { 8h7h }
Hand 5: 16.5602 % 16.55% 00.02% { 6d5d }
Hand 6: 14.9590 % 14.95% 00.02% { 4c3c }

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

CrunchyNuts

08-10-2005, 11:18 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Hey hey, we have a winner, 15% < 16%

Code:

cards     win   %win    lose  %lose     tie   %tie     EV
Ad Ah   11164   1.70  467103  70.99  179741  27.32  0.153
As Ac   11200   1.70  467067  70.98  179741  27.32  0.153
5c 4c  111446  16.94  546221  83.01     341   0.05  0.169
7d 6d  108735  16.52  548932  83.42     341   0.05  0.165
9s 8s  113222  17.21  544445  82.74     341   0.05  0.172
Jh Th  122500  18.62  535167  81.33     341   0.05  0.186

Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.

a500lbgorilla

08-11-2005, 12:30 AM Post subject: Re: Is calling AI with AA -EV ever??

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pingviini

Preflop, never.

Same with KK.

-'rilla

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You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Lukie

08-11-2005, 05:10 AM Post subject: Re: Is calling AI with AA -EV ever??

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pingviini

I can think of many situations where smooth calling an AI preflop with AA is -EV as opposed to reraising. I don't think that was really the question though.

- Lukie

Greedo017

08-11-2005, 07:09 AM

#13 (permalink)

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wow, i didn't believe there was ever a situation where calling with aces was -EV.

i mean, in reality, no there never is because it is impossible to know you both have aces. but still.

i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch

EricE

08-11-2005, 04:39 PM

#14 (permalink)

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I have been AI preflop against another with rockets before. We split the third AI players money.

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

Pingviini

08-11-2005, 07:26 PM

#15 (permalink)

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I was just arguing about this on vent the other night with someone. I was sure that calling AI's with AA would be -EV ever but I said that I would ask this on the forums.

"Poker is a simple math game" -Aba20

bencathers

08-11-2005, 08:17 PM

#16 (permalink)

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I watched a friend of mine play in a 215 tournament and go all in with AA and was called by AA. The other AA rivered a flush. It was really fun watching my friend ripping out his mouse and punching his monitor till it broke.

Sorry for not adding anything intellectual to this conversation.

Dealer: bencathers has two pair, Aces and Deuces
Dealer: Tbags has two pair, Kings and Jacks
Dealer: Tbags finished the tournament in 256th place
Tbags [observer]: another scumbag gets there on this site lol

ChezJ

08-11-2005, 08:28 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedo017

wow, i didn't believe there was ever a situation where calling with aces was -EV.

it's -EV at the final table of a tournament where you are guaranteed a higher payout by folding and letting people get eliminated.

but in a ring game, as specified in the original question, it's +EV.

i've certainly won with aces before in a 7way pot.

ChezJ

Greedo017

08-12-2005, 07:19 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pingviini

Is there a possibility that callling AA in RING to, lets say 7AI's in front of you, is negative EV?

i am most surprised that there is a situation in ring where pushing is actually -EV. I mean, you would never ever ever be able to tell that there was that specific arrangement of cards, but still.

"but in a ring game, as specified in the original question, it's +EV."

not true. In those above situations its -EV.

08-12-2005, 07:27 PM

#19 (permalink)

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Estrop

08-13-2005, 05:15 AM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

WSOP very first hand you are on the bb...you just put your empty wallet back in your pants after dumping $10,000 on your buy in.

UTG all in
MP1 call
Mp 2 call

I FOLD...no way I am going in a 4 way pot with AA for my entire stack

Idiot.

You can lose the WSOP on the first hand, but you can't win it.

08-13-2005, 09:41 AM

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08-13-2005, 09:48 AM

#22 (permalink)

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Pingviini

08-13-2005, 11:06 AM

#23 (permalink)

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This is what bankroll management is for!!!! it is +EV to call AI's with AA but if your whole stack is in the line I think you should fold.

READ 'RILLAS BR MANAGEMENT GUIDE http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=4971

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08-13-2005, 06:53 PM

#24 (permalink)

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BobbySalami

08-13-2005, 07:00 PM

#25 (permalink)

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Of course against 3 random hands AA is going to only hold up less than 50%, but AI against 3 opponents with random cards you only need to win at least 25% of the time to break even....but you will win more than that which is VERY +EV

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DoGGz

08-13-2005, 07:18 PM

#26 (permalink)

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If I'm playing in the WSOP one thing is known.

I fucking have enough money to play the 10k buyin to my full ability.

If the first hand I get AA and half the table moves in front of me, I'm calling. I am not making a dumb play and folding.

If you honestly were playing 5000nl and folded AA after you had 1000 of your buyin into the pot, You are a fish playing on scared money. I hope that was hypothetical, in which case it still is pointless because ONLY A SHITTY PLAYER IS GOING TO SIT DOWN WITH MOST OF HIS ROLL.

Laeelin

08-13-2005, 07:31 PM

#27 (permalink)

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Ya'll are talking about diffrent things..

Preflop all in with AA is always +EV on a HAND.

But it can be a -EV call overall for a skilled player, in a situation that has you risking to much of your bankroll (or chips in a SnG/MTT).

In other words, Phil Ivey would be stupid to call with AA on the first hand of a MTT after 3 other players are all in...

He can either risk everything in hopes of a coin flip landing his way, or he can use his skill and pick up thoes 3k chips later that day.

In that situation calling would be -EV! (only because it's risking everything on a coinflip, when you have the skill to win without risking a coinflip.)

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

Miffed22001

08-13-2005, 07:34 PM

#28 (permalink)

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huh?
is this thread still going.
How can calling with AA be -ev.
it cant

Laeelin

08-13-2005, 08:12 PM

#29 (permalink)

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Actually did the math..

QQ vs KK vs AA vs AA

at a game with any skill, the third all in is going to need to have AA or they would fold.

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=...+Kh%0D%0AQc+Qs

Win 4 buyins = 1.86%
Win 2 buyins = 57.79%

Win/Tie
4 * 1.86 = 7.44
2 * 57.79 = 115.58
============
After 100 hands you win: 123.02
Subtract your buyin's and thats just 23.02 buyin's profit per 100 hands.

No way is that +EV for a skilled player risking it all on one hand.

Naturally, that only would happen in cases like a SnG/MTT or someone playing with waaaay to much of thier bankroll.

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

EurekaKid

08-14-2005, 01:24 AM

#30 (permalink)

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It is always the right play to call an all-in in a cash game with AA, sure the odds get less the more people in the pot but you are compensated by better pot odds

Greedo017

08-14-2005, 06:12 AM

#31 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

I fucking have enough money to play the 10k buyin to my full ability.

yea, you're probably right, i'm sure the average player in the wsop has a couple hundred thousand to kick around so a 10k buy-in is within their roll..... durr

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

Rilla, if you honestly were playing 5000nl and folded AA after you had 1000 of your buyin into the pot, You are a fish playing on scared money. I hope that was hypothetical, in which case it still is pointless because ONLY A SHITTY PLAYER IS GOING TO SIT DOWN WITH MOST OF HIS ROLL.

better duck to make sure his point doesn't hit you in the eye before you open them...

DoGGz

08-14-2005, 06:24 AM

#32 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedo017

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

I fucking have enough money to play the 10k buyin to my full ability.

yea, you're probably right, i'm sure the average player in the wsop has a few hundred thousand to kick around so a 10k buy-in is within their roll..... durr

The average player is one step ahead of uberfish. That isn't the point.

You either are going to the WSOP as a serious player looking to win money, or you are going there for fun. If it is for fun, then it is just a 10k entertainment expence, and you should fold every hand you don't have the nuts because hey, you at least want a days worth of play out of your buyin.

What your saying is we should treat the WSOP differently, and I completely disagree. I'm going to win, not get blinded out by uber weak/tight play.

Greedo017

08-14-2005, 06:28 AM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

What your saying is we should treat the WSOP differently, and I completely disagree. I'm going to win, not get blinded out by uber weak/tight play.

If you are so inept in your ability to play that you think you can never get better than a 50% chance to win down the road, go ahead and call.

The point is, it is a -EV move. Your chances of winning the tournament are better if you fold here than call. If this situation happened once per tournament, you are automatically losing 50% of them. In return in the other 50%, you're getting 40k chips in a tournament with 60 million chips....

Laeelin

08-14-2005, 06:48 AM

#34 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedo017

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

What your saying is we should treat the WSOP differently, and I completely disagree. I'm going to win, not get blinded out by uber weak/tight play.

It's even worse than 50%

50% assumes that no other player has AA

With 3 all in, i'd suspect that one has AA.. that would cut your odds to like 35% - 40% ... (it's only +26% EV with another AA in the pot)

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

DoGGz

08-14-2005, 08:29 AM

#35 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedo017

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

What your saying is we should treat the WSOP differently, and I completely disagree. I'm going to win, not get blinded out by uber weak/tight play.

And I also get 30-40k chips on the 2nd hand if I win. If only 'lost' in the WSOP 50% of the time I'd be the best poker player ever. You do know that they estimated to win the WSOP you'd be all in over 7 times. I'd be happy to make sure the all in I had on the first day had me as the favorite.

08-14-2005, 09:45 AM

#36 (permalink)

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OK, so first hand in the WSOP:

you have a straight on the flop
two clubs on board (no club in your hand)

someone goes all-in
you're sure he has the flush draw and nothing else

will you call?

In fact this is a WORSE spot to put your money in because you only win ONE stack with this play and your odds are only slightly better than the aces example

DO NOT assume a good player can always make more money later in the tournament
They have to put their money in risky spots that on average give them a positive expectation. Like I said, lots of pros bust out first day of a tournament. That's because they put their money in spots that on average show profit. If they bust out, they bust out. You can't win every damn tournament!!

What does it matter if it's the first hand of the tournament or not? If you're getting to quadruple your money, your M is going to increase, your chipstack will become menacing. In fact, if you manage to quadruple your chipstack like this it will be easier to increase it later. Why? Because now you can put your money in more dubious but still profitable spots. It's the opposite of the disadvantage of the short stack.

You're looking at it like it's 45% to lose the tournament.
But say your chance to win the tournament was one in ten thousand. Now it goes up to one in two thousand (big stack advantage)
You chance of placing ITM goes up

It's a good spot to put your money in. There are a lot of tournaments, and losing one is not the end of the world.

Let's see, say you play in 100 tournaments and in each and every one of them this situation arises.

you're going to quadruple up 55 times
you're going to bust 45 times

vs.
you're going to fold two aces preflop

quadrupling up will give you a lot of momentum and power in the tournament
let's say you make four times as much money quadrupling up in any given tournament - you're going to place higher, win more often, etc.

so now calling this all-in will give you the same amount of profit as playing 220 tournaments! It's EV+

Also, when both players have two aces is OFFSET by the same happening to the other side.

What if the other players are:

KK KK QQ AA

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 01.4720 % [ 00.01 00.00 ] { KdKc }
Hand 2: 01.4720 % [ 00.01 00.00 ] { KsKh }
Hand 3: 17.7492 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { QQ }
Hand 4: 79.3069 % [ 00.79 00.00 ] { AA }

So now you're the same favorite as against only one person

These freak occasions shouldn't count since they cancel each other out

Lukie

07-22-2006, 10:07 PM Post subject: Re: Is calling AI with AA -EV ever??

#37 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pingviini

Looks -EV to me. Easy fold.

Proof:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,897,433,088 games 189.391 secs 73,379,585 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 07.4531 % 02.06% 05.39% { AA }
Hand 2: 07.4531 % 02.06% 05.39% { AA }
Hand 3: 13.2338 % 13.23% 00.01% { 65s }
Hand 4: 16.3045 % 16.30% 00.01% { T9s }
Hand 5: 14.1033 % 14.10% 00.01% { 87s }
Hand 6: 10.8650 % 10.86% 00.01% { 43s }
Hand 7: 15.2742 % 15.27% 00.01% { QJs }
Hand 8: 15.3131 % 15.31% 00.01% { 22 }

Lukie

07-23-2006, 12:59 AM

#38 (permalink)

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INTERRUPTED! Enumerate All equities unreliable, use Monte Carlo

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

133,607,136,096 games 1710.000 secs 78,132,828 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 02.6079 % 01.23% 01.38% { AA }
Hand 2: 03.0176 % 01.64% 01.38% { AA }
Hand 3: 23.7892 % 23.77% 00.02% { KK }
Hand 4: 18.4342 % 18.41% 00.02% { QQ }
Hand 5: 14.8772 % 14.86% 00.02% { JJ }
Hand 6: 13.8712 % 13.85% 00.02% { TT }
Hand 7: 03.5397 % 03.52% 00.02% { 22 }
Hand 8: 05.0258 % 05.00% 00.02% { 33 }
Hand 9: 06.7267 % 06.71% 00.02% { 44 }
Hand 10: 08.1104 % 08.09% 00.02% { 55 }

givememyleg

07-23-2006, 03:01 AM

#39 (permalink)

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That would be awesome if at the FT of the wsop in cronilogical order they were dealt AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 and they all got allin preflop and they all called and then see the flop turn and river .com and that would be awesome!

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07-23-2006, 04:59 AM

#40 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by givememyleg

How about we just give 2 AA's out and do as much possible to destroy all the straight outs?

Halv

07-23-2006, 07:22 AM

#41 (permalink)

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07-23-2006, 02:48 PM Post subject: Re: Is calling AI with AA -EV ever??

#42 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pingviini

If that is proof that calling with AA is -EV, would you also say that it is proof that calling with T9s is +EV. That's just one of the possible scenarios for AA and it's one of the worst.

What about this case:

cards %win %tie Equity
Ac Ah 25.11 0.86 0.254
Ad Kd 6.12 0.89 0.064
Kc Kh 9.16 0.36 0.092
Qs Qc 16.60 0.34 0.166
Js Jd 13.33 0.34 0.134
Ts 9s 4.93 2.08 0.058
6h 5h 12.00 2.08 0.129
2c 2d 10.13 0.34 0.102

Now we are a huge favorite. 12.5% of the pot coresponds to one buy-in and we got pot equity of 0.254. This makes it +EV by slightly more than a buy-in, better than heads-up vs any other hand.

There are also even better situations for AA. By not including AK in the hands above we will have 2 outs to the set. As someone already mentioned 2 guys having KK, or even QQ is also 2 possible situations. I would say that there is probably more situations where AA is a dominating hand rather than a dominated one, even with eight players in the hand.

SonOfAkira

07-23-2006, 04:36 PM

#43 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Holy shit this actually happened yesterday at one of the smaller events!

bantam222

07-23-2006, 07:17 PM

#44 (permalink)

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i can be -ev but because you can't see everyones cards you should never fold AA in a ring game PF.

a500lbgorilla

07-23-2006, 07:27 PM

#45 (permalink)

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yah, i did some calculations, if the guy who you're against in the pot is liable to calmly walk up and stab you for beating him in a big pot. It's slightly -ev

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

a500lbgorilla

07-23-2006, 07:52 PM

#46 (permalink)

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well, if you have good insurance, it's neutral ev.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

flomo

07-23-2006, 09:51 PM

#47 (permalink)

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back when i used to read MAD Magazine, there was a section called stupid answers to really fucking stupid questions
i think this is it

n1 rilla

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigred

Protect dog

Lukie

07-25-2006, 06:53 AM

#48 (permalink)

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Posts: 3,307

2_Thumbs_Up,

Sorry, I was just kidding. Although I did think situations where (cards turned up), calling AI with AA is -EV was kind if interesting which is why I decided to post it.

Lukie

07-25-2006, 06:54 AM

#49 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: back with a vengeance

Posts: 3,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfAkira

Quote:

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Holy shit this actually happened yesterday at one of the smaller events!

lol, even if you were being serious, I wouldn't ever believe it. Not even if I saw it with my own eyes.

2_Thumbs_Up

07-25-2006, 05:34 PM

#50 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 271

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukie

2_Thumbs_Up,

Sorry, I was just kidding. Although I did think situations where (cards turned up), calling AI with AA is -EV was kind if interesting which is why I decided to post it.

Alright, never mind then. It's funny, I'm usually the guy who laughs at people not detecting sarcasm, even online.

Anyway I was surprised that it actually could be more +EV in some cases in a big multiway pot. But I wonder, if you put your opponents on likely all-in ranges, does the EV increase or decrease the more players there are in the pot?

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Is calling AI with AA -EV ever??

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