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Call the river shove??

  
 
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lytstephe
Old 03-29-2009, 01:35 AM     Post subject: Call the river shove?? #1 (permalink)  

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lytstephe
No stats or read on villain

FTR Hand History Converter Output (intended for copying and pasting into poker forums!):
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.67)
villain (SB) ($2.93)
Hero (BB) ($6.01)
UTG ($10.07)
MP ($13.02)
CO ($3.82)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 2
4 folds, villain calls $0.03, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.10) 9, 2, 4 (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets $0.10, villain calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.30) J (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets $0.20, villain calls $0.20

River: ($0.70) A (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets $0.50, villain raises to $2.58 (All-In), Hero ???


seems like my flop bet is bad. Should I fold or call the shove? also perhaps better if I'd checked behind the river? Any comments/suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Would like to see some guesses on the final hand as well.
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poker_pup
Old 03-29-2009, 01:57 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I would fold. At this level, check raises typically mean you're beat with two pair.
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oskar
Old 03-29-2009, 02:17 AM #3 (permalink)  
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What hands do you think he could have?
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lockpull
Old 03-29-2009, 02:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I would think you have to fold to the river shove here. But also, IMO, check behind the flop, bet the turn, check behind the river seems better to me.


Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
 
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lytstephe
Old 03-29-2009, 02:50 AM #5 (permalink)  

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lytstephe
I thought he might have been floating with an Ace here.
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lytstephe
Old 03-29-2009, 02:58 AM #6 (permalink)  

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lytstephe
Quote:
Originally Posted by lockpull
I would think you have to fold to the river shove here. But also, IMO, check behind the flop, bet the turn, check behind the river seems better to me.
Thanks for the comment. Makes perfect sense. LMAO now that I look at it can't imagine why I bet on the flop. Turn bet is definitely in order, and river check behind makes sense as well.

The only reason I bet on the river and called the raise was I thought he could've been floating with Ax and would take a value bet. And then maybe crazy enough to think his Ax beats me.
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Old 03-29-2009, 12:26 PM #7 (permalink)  
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bet/folding the river is not a leak
I see people calling down with random stuff like 9x on the river here because they "put you on a flush draw" or something
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oskar
Old 03-29-2009, 02:02 PM #8 (permalink)  
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So one possibility is Ax - floating 2 streets oop just bluff on the river, unless he hits.
Small part, but I guess it's possible.
What else could he have?
Just go though all the combinations.
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jeffsbabe
Old 03-29-2009, 02:10 PM #9 (permalink)  

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jeffsbabe
I guess it would depend on how the player has been playing. Has he slow played in the past? Maybe he just caught a pair of J's on the turn? Maybe with 2 pair on the board I would have called but according to the pot size folding was probably the way to go.
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KeeKoLy
Old 03-29-2009, 09:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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He could have easily been floating an AXc, looking for his flush and thought he had you on the river with just a pair of Aces, certainly he isn't putting you as strong as 2p, he probably thinks you have the J and he got you on the river. I don't know, would have to be sitting there to know how this guy was playing since we got no reads, in which case you should fold it....(didn't like the flop bet BTW). Am I right on AXc?
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Carroters
Old 03-29-2009, 09:53 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Check flop do not check back river, you're good here the vast majority of the time and not betting is just throwing away value. Fold to the c/r you only beat a bluff, or a retarded top pair.
 
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oskar
Old 03-29-2009, 11:29 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I overlooked the flushdraw (use the hand converter, please).

What I would have liked you to do is to really take the time and write out all the possible combinations that he could have here. Then you put them in pokerstove and see what your equity is...
Anyway... just from experience I can tell you that this is very rarely a bluff. It could be a very retarded value bet with just an Ace, but most of the time it's either Aces up or a slowplayed set.
River is an easy b/f imo.
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connectthesuitors
Old 03-29-2009, 11:55 PM #13 (permalink)  
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connectthesuitors
Hero has shown some aggression in this hand but has not been overly so. On that basis if Villain has our hand beaten here I don't think he's checking the river as he will want to try and get as much value as he possibly can out of his hand and the c/r here is just a bit suspicious. It looks like a steal or Ax but I may just be spouting crap lol.
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lytstephe
Old 03-30-2009, 02:13 AM #14 (permalink)  

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lytstephe
Quote:
Originally Posted by oskar
I overlooked the flushdraw (use the hand converter, please).

What I would have liked you to do is to really take the time and write out all the possible combinations that he could have here. Then you put them in pokerstove and see what your equity is...
Anyway... just from experience I can tell you that this is very rarely a bluff. It could be a very retarded value bet with just an Ace, but most of the time it's either Aces up or a slowplayed set.
River is an easy b/f imo.

So very worst he could have top/mid/bottom one pair floating and bluffing on river. Very unlikely.

Next up, flush draw floating, missed, and river shoving for bluff. Not likely at this stake level.

Next up, which is what I thought he might have had, is Ax (perhaps Axc flushdraw). So he shoved me on the river for value. I guess maybe quite unlikely action from a player at this level as well.

Next up, a set. So 99, 44, or more unlikely, 22, JJ (or AA god forbid). Perhaps somewhat likely but I don't see many people can get away from the 2pair.
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lytstephe
Old 03-30-2009, 02:18 AM #15 (permalink)  

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lytstephe
Quote:
Originally Posted by connectthesuitors
Hero has shown some aggression in this hand but has not been overly so. On that basis if Villain has our hand beaten here I don't think he's checking the river as he will want to try and get as much value as he possibly can out of his hand and the c/r here is just a bit suspicious. It looks like a steal or Ax but I may just be spouting crap lol.
That was exactly what I thought. And getting away from 2pair at this stake I just couldn't do (at least at the moment). Obviously I lost this one at showdown, and I really could not believe what he beat me with... lol like to take a guess?
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Outlaw
Old 03-30-2009, 02:22 AM     Post subject: Re: Call the river shove?? #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lytstephe
No stats or read on villain

FTR Hand History Converter Output (intended for copying and pasting into poker forums!):
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.67)
villain (SB) ($2.93)
Hero (BB) ($6.01)
UTG ($10.07)
MP ($13.02)
CO ($3.82)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 2
4 folds, villain calls $0.03, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.10) 9, 2, 4 (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets $0.10, villain calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.30) J (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets $0.20, villain calls $0.20

River: ($0.70) A (2 players)
villain checks, Hero bets $0.50, villain raises to $2.58 (All-In), Hero ???


seems like my flop bet is bad. Should I fold or call the shove? also perhaps better if I'd checked behind the river? Any comments/suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Would like to see some guesses on the final hand as well.
Tough to fold here but I don't see where we are ever any good. although it is possible.

w/o reads its tough but I think his range for check/shoving is a poorly played set, a poorly played set, or a poorly played rivered aces up.
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