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baudib
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08-14-2005, 09:28 PM
Post subject: Call push with KQ flush?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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I was wondering how to figure the odds on this one...If I hold KQs and hit my flush, but villain pushes upon the third flush card, should I automatically fold?
This has happened to me a couple of times lately, and i suppose I should stop doing it. 1, I have KQs with a flush draw but otherwise unimproved. I feel I could be leading in the hand but am not quite sure, plus I am chasing the flush. Or maybe I even have top pair. Should I just take the pot down there and not mess around with the draw? I ended up giving someone odds to draw out because I felt confident I would win the flush.
If one would assume that most play suited against all but a huge PFR, when I had KQ should I assume my caller is holding Axs? I guess it is unlikely that someone would chase with Jxs.
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Lukie
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08-14-2005, 09:38 PM
Post subject: Re: Call push with KQ flush?
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#2 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by baudib
I was wondering how to figure the odds on this one...If I hold KQs and hit my flush, but villain pushes upon the third flush card, should I automatically fold?
This has happened to me a couple of times lately, and i suppose I should stop doing it. 1, I have KQs with a flush draw but otherwise unimproved. I feel I could be leading in the hand but am not quite sure, plus I am chasing the flush. Or maybe I even have top pair. Should I just take the pot down there and not mess around with the draw? I ended up giving someone odds to draw out because I felt confident I would win the flush.
If one would assume that most play suited against all but a huge PFR, when I had KQ should I assume my caller is holding Axs? I guess it is unlikely that someone would chase with Jxs.
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On an unpaired board, I pay off the ace high flush everytime with KQs if I also hit my flush.
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journey075
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
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uhhh if my flush is even SOMEWHAT high, im losing my stack. K high isnt even a question...im rushing to put my chips in.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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OK then...
can anyone answer my question...I'm not great at the math.... If you have a suited KQ what are the chances that the A of your suit is suited and also out against you?
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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Quote:
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can anyone answer my question...I'm not great at the math.... If you have a suited KQ what are the chances that the A of your suit is suited and also out against you?
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Much less than 50%, making a call +EV. Plus if the board isn't paired you're opponent would have the nuts. Why would someone try to get everyone to fold if they had the nuts? Again, easy call.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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0live
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 84
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Quote:
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can anyone answer my question...I'm not great at the math.... If you have a suited KQ what are the chances that the A of your suit is suited and also out against you?
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Much less than 50%, making a call +EV. Plus if the board isn't paired you're opponent would have the nuts. Why would someone try to get everyone to fold if they had the nuts? Again, easy call. |
If you were playing in a tournament, it is not such an easy call everytime. Winning that specific hand does not gaurentee you money in the tournament (unless your already ITM which then it is an easy call), and if you are risking a significant portion of you stack then it is not such an easy call everytime. However, in cash games I am paying off an Axs everytime with KQs.
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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Quote:
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If you were playing in a tournament, it is not such an easy call everytime. Winning that specific hand does not gaurentee you money in the tournament (unless your already ITM which then it is an easy call), and if you are risking a significant portion of you stack then it is not such an easy call everytime.
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A tournament scenario doesn't make the decision that much harder. In the long run the chips you possibly save by folding is outweighed by the chips you'd gain by making the call. This is not even considering the chances that your opponent might be bluffing, which I feel is a much higher probablility in a tournament as oppossed to in a cash game.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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well it did happen to come in a tournament and it knocked me out.
It was pretty apparent that both of us had nothing and were drawing. I don't know if he knew I had nothing but the draw but he knew he had the nut flush.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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EricE
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
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See this thread.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=16819
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Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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I have to say, I think I fold in this situation now if it means getting knocked out. I would be more inclined to call with KJ or any other K, because MAYBE Qxs pulls this, but I'm not sure J10 would.
Maybe it's just a bluff or maybe I have him beat, but isn't this precisely the type of situation where KQ is second-best, thereby making it one of the dangerous hands?
in a cash game I agree, I'll pay Axs every time.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by baudib
I have to say, I think I fold in this situation now if it means getting knocked out. I would be more inclined to call with KJ or any other K, because MAYBE Qxs pulls this, but I'm not sure J10 would.
Maybe it's just a bluff or maybe I have him beat, but isn't this precisely the type of situation where KQ is second-best, thereby making it one of the dangerous hands?
in a cash game I agree, I'll pay Axs every time.
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Losing with a king-high flush to an ace-high flush on a 3-suited board is incredibly rare. If you lose a tournament in this situation, it just wasn't your tournament. IMO this would be similar to folding KK preflop being afraid your opponent holds AA.
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Darby
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 209
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I tend to play pretty aggressively and anytime I have a flush on an unpaired board using both of my hole cards, I am pretty confident I have the best hand.
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WhooFleuryScores
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 918
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Call.If he has it then you tip your hat to him and pay off with confidence.If you were to always fold the King high flush when people pushed longterm it would probably be -EV.
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journey075
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 725
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Losing with a king-high flush to an ace-high flush on a 3-suited board is incredibly rare. If you lose a tournament in this situation, it just wasn't your tournament. IMO this would be similar to folding KK preflop being afraid your opponent holds AA.
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lukie is my new fav poster.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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Anyone who folds a K high flush in a tournament is crazy. You don't have the time to wait around for the nuts when the blinds are increasing.
I lose all my money here every time that I have 2 suited cards in my hand, 3 of the same suit on the board and the board isn't paired. PERIOD. I don't care if my flush is 3 high.
Same with a cash game. It doesn't make sense for the nuts to push other players out. I have to put my opponent on a hand that doesn't want to see a showdown, or is afraid of another card coming that could beat him.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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Bet flush draws with four people in the pot for value on the flop. You have 35% chance to win the pot by the river, and you have 3 opponents. That's very good odds on the flop, and you don't really need to see any cards for it to be EV+ if everyone calls your bet. You're EV+ if two people call your bet (barely though)
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PokerPatNEU
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 797
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If you hold KQs, the odds that someone has Ax of your suit is (Chance they have the ace of your suit)*(chance they have one of the other 10 of that suit) = 1/50*10/49 = approx 1 in 250, or .4% of the time.
Assuming that the hand in question is one of these 250 times, the chance you both make a flush is (chance you make it on the flop)+(chance you make it on the turn)+(chance you make it on the river).
The following math assumes that THREE and ONLY three of the suit in question appear on the board by the river...If 4 of the suit come up, the chance you're beat with KQs increases, because now the opp only needs the ace of that suit, not the x of that suit to go with it.
Both make your flush on the flop = 9/48*8/47*7/46 = 504/103,776 =.48%
Both make your flush on the turn = 3*(9/48*8/47*39/46) * 7/45 = 55,944/4,669,920 = 1.26%
Both make your flush on the river = [6*(9/48*8/47*39/46)*38/45*7/44] = (4,481,568/205,476,480) = 2.181%
So *IF* you have KQs and your opp has Ax of your suit (only 1 in 250 times that you have KQs...(which is 4/52*1/51 = .18% of hands)) ...so a big if...You'll both make the flush only .48+1.26+2.181 = 3.826% of the time.
You are dealth KQs .18% of the time, or 1/500 hands. 1/250 of those times, will you be up against Ax of your suit.
I think 3.826% of the time is good enough to call an all in every single time no matter what on an unpaired board if you have the flush, and only 3 to the flush is on the board.
Edit: This math all assumes you're up against only one opponent...the chance increases as the amount of players who see the flop increase, obviously. Someone else can take it from there if you wanna find the chance this happens to you in a full ring...still pretty slim.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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OK, OK, you all talked me into it. I guess the other information that's pertinent is that he had limped and I raised and two others called. I missed the flop but bet as if I were ahead and two folded. One guy called -- he's either beating me (as I have nothing) or he's chasing with Axs. I still don't think J10s or lower puts all of his chips in on the third flush on the river.
ah well. I guess the math says to call. It's just that this has happened to me a couple of times on the bubble very recently. I keep saying I have to call with the K but gets me burned.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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