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Calculating outs problem

  
 
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urobolus
Old 02-13-2006, 07:30 PM     Post subject: Calculating outs problem #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Oct 2005
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urobolus
I was recently checking out one of those "odds charts" that shows you how to convert outs to percentages to odds.

My only question is, the chart limited the outs to twenty, with 67.5 being the highest winning percentage post flop.

But my question is, can't there be way more than just twenty outs?

Let's say you've got 56s. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't all the following "outs":

A-4 of any suit (4cards*4suits)=16 (gives you the low straight/straight flush)
7-10 of any suit (4cards*4suits)=16 (gives you the high straight/straight flush)
also, J-K of the same suit=3 (gives you the flush)
also, the 3 other fives and three other sixes=6 (gives you pairs, trips, quads)

=41 outs?

let's say the flop is J 7 2, none of your suit. That takes away a total of three outs; now there are 38 outs.

If, theoretically via this chart (which follows an accepted formula), one out after the flop is equal to a 4.3% chance of making your hands by the river, and with each out this number increases incrementally, then 4*38=approximately 150% chace of making your hand by the river?

Am I computing outs wrong and, if I am, can someone give me a proper method?
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Dunk
Old 02-13-2006, 07:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Dunk
Urobolus,
I'd say go back and read over the odds calculating articles.

A-4 holding 56s isn't 16 outs. All of those things would have to happen simultanteously to get a straight, not as indenpendant events.

Outs are what you need to make your hand, and I've never seen them described preflop. The math for the 3 simultaneous cards brought out in the flop are a lot more complex than the outs chart/rule of thumb.

so if you hold 5c 6c and the flop comes Jc 7d 3c then...

You have 4 outs to the straight: all the 4 cards in the deck.
Independant of that, you also have 9 outs to the flush.
If your read is that either a straight or a flush will beat the opponent. then you have 12 outs (not 13, since the 4c is in both groups). Roughly that's a 24% chance to hit on the turn and another 24% chance to hit on the river.

Note that this is only reasonable when compared to what you think the opponent is holding. If you think that the opponent is on a higher flush drawn than yours (say with Ax of clubs), then you only want to see one of the three 4 cards that aren't clubs or the 5 or 6 to make a pair for you.

Anyway, if that doesn't help all I can say is read one of the better articles on figuring outs in Theory of Poker or one of the online articles and you'll be fine.
Note: new guy and very open to constructive criticism, so go ahead and weigh in! I'm here to learn.
 
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siknd
Old 02-13-2006, 07:48 PM #3 (permalink)  
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21 is max outs you can have. oesf with overs vs tptk
'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '
 
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urobolus
Old 02-13-2006, 08:22 PM #4 (permalink)  

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urobolus
Alright, kind of get what you're saying, heading out to find a better article on the subject.
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Greedo017
Old 02-14-2006, 12:49 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 yea, if it wasn't clear enough before, outs are the cards you need to complete your hand. you can figure out your preflop % to win, but that's really not what outs are talking about. outs are after the flop has come, how many different turn and/or river cards are there that can give you a straight/flush/fullhouse/whatever.
i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 02-14-2006, 04:46 AM #6 (permalink)  
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22 v JTs on 889(2 suited) flop = 24 outs and 3 more outs on any non-2 turn.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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cburke
Old 02-20-2006, 04:39 PM #7 (permalink)  

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cburke
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunk
so if you hold 5c 6c and the flop comes Jc 7d 3c then...

You have 4 outs to the straight: all the 4 cards in the deck.
Independant of that, you also have 9 outs to the flush.
If your read is that either a straight or a flush will beat the opponent. then you have 12 outs (not 13, since the 4c is in both groups). Roughly that's a 24% chance to hit on the turn and another 24% chance to hit on the river.
8 outs to the straight right, or am I missing something (I'm very new at this as well)?
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donnybaker
Old 02-20-2006, 04:47 PM #8 (permalink)  
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donnybaker
Quote:
Originally Posted by cburke
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunk
so if you hold 5c 6c and the flop comes Jc 7d 3c then...

You have 4 outs to the straight: all the 4 cards in the deck.
Independant of that, you also have 9 outs to the flush.
If your read is that either a straight or a flush will beat the opponent. then you have 12 outs (not 13, since the 4c is in both groups). Roughly that's a 24% chance to hit on the turn and another 24% chance to hit on the river.
8 outs to the straight right, or am I missing something (I'm very new at this as well)?
This one's a gutshot. Only a 4 makes the straight.
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