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wufwugy
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08-27-2006, 06:51 PM
Post subject: calculating odds confusion
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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the chart in GSH states that a flush draw breaks even at 4.1-to-1, yet when dividing 9 into 47 i get 5.2 which would make it 5.2-to-1 (i assume this is how to calculate the odds). TOP states that drawing to a flush makes you a 5-to-1 underdog. im terrible at math and such but there seems to be a discrepancy. if there is, why?
also, can somebody tell me how, or if it's too complicated, can somebody direct me to a source to learn how to calculate the odds of anything happening in Hold em?
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cobere
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Fort Collins
Posts: 336
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1 out of 5 is the same as 4 to 1
1 good, 4 bad, 5 total
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On moving up, properly rolled:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
You don't know if you're J-Fish or A Fish until you try.
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bantam222
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 208
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1/5 you will win 1 in every 5 times
1:5 you will win 1 time, for every 5 loses
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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so im assuming the vocal expression of 1/5 is 1 in 5 and 1:5 is 1 to 5?
is this accurate: a 5 to 1 underdog (who will win 1 in every 6 times) needs to get 5 to 1 from the pot for the call to be break even since he would be contributing 1/6th of the pot?
if that's the case then why does a 5 to 1 under flush draw need only 4 to 1 for the call to be break even?
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
a 5 to 1 underdog (who will win 1 in every 6 times) needs to get 5 to 1 from the pot for the call to be break even since he would be contributing 1/6th of the pot.
if that's the case then why does a 5 to 1 under flush draw need only 4 to 1 for the call to be break even?
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does anybody have a response for this?
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flyingPenguin
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 193
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If the draw is 1/5 chance to win, then for every $1 you invest into the pot the final pot has to be $5 (including your $1), for you to break even.
Looking at it silly odds wise, the draw is 4:1. If you have to call $1, the pot has to already be at least $4 to be profitable.
Forget about using odds that way and just use fractions for probability. Easier to do the maths and can be switched to and from percentages easily.
As for calculating the percentages of anything happening in holdem, it's too difficult. Start by looking at the odds charts on this site (converting outs to probability), and then get PokerStove for some more difficult stuff.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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thanks.
i believe my confusion is solely because TOP states that a flush draw is a 5:1 dog, and that just doesn't sync up.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
thanks.
i believe my confusion is solely because TOP states that a flush draw is a 5:1 dog, and that just doesn't sync up.
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ya a flushdraw is a 4:1 dog not a 5:1 dog.
That must be a typo or something.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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