BvB 99 Line Check

why did you do that?

wtf

Your raise is only getting called by a hand that has you crushed.
You're not really even priced in to set mine at this point. If you have no other reads, this is a fold.

By the way, just for clarity: Is it 22 hands for the VPIP/PFR or for the 3-bet? CPFR and 3-bet don't accumulate every hand, and are probably not even beginning to converge until 50+ opportunities for most players (the smaller the % the more hands it takes to converge). At the tables I play, that would be 150+ hands total on the person before I cared too much what the 3-bet % was. Until then (or they show me otherwise), I put them on a nits range.

bad

This would be bad at a Zynga poker table.

Originally Posted by rpm

why did you do that?

^^^the best question in the thread

Is this a bluff? You're gonna get TT to fold, prob JJ too, AK might or might not call. In fact edit, JJ and AK call this at 10nl most of the time, so bluff shoving is as dumb as value shoving. There's zero value here against the vast majority of villains, you really need to know he calls 22+. Seems to me that you just don't like his 3bet frequency and are tilt spewing instead of adjusting correctly.

I agree, it looks like a total donk/maniac move on paper. I've been thinking a lot about this hand lately however and thinking the move has got some merit. I'll give you my rationale and if it really is stupid and badly calculated, please rip it apart so I stop these moves now.

Villain is Russian, which I didn't mention but it is a key driver in my decision making. I love playing against Russians as nearly all of them are far too aggressive, yet don't know how to react to greater aggression. At 10nl, the typical Russian villain 3-bets way too much but reacts poorly to 4-bets, defends his bb too often and has a habit of going into tilting spew mode against me. This villain has given me no indication that he doesn't fit the stereotype and I'm looking for an early opportunity to get my opponent to make a mistake and maybe start tilting.

Pocket 9s is a standard open and I'm expecting to be 3bet. I figure my opponent is doing so with 22+/A8s+/ATo+/KQs/QJs/KQo i.e. 170 combinations. I am ahead of this range.

I don't want to play pocket 9s oop though and I think I my opponent will fold everything to a shove apart from JJ+/AK (although many Russians will call off wider) i.e. call with 40 combinations, fold 130 combinations.

Assuming I'm correct (big assumption of course!):
(a) Opponent folds and l win: EV = 130/170*10bb = +7.7bb
(b) Opponent calls and I lose: EV = 40/170*67%*-76bb = -12.0bb
(c) Opponent calls and I win: EV = 40/170*33%*+76bb = 5.9bb

(a)+(b)+(c) = +1.6bb.

4b shoving is so 2006

Your profit here is so marginal for the risk that the range you're giving him for 3bet pre cannot be any thinner. Questions you have to ask is... is he always 3bet/folding everything in this range? For each time he flat calls a raise with any of this range, you're losing fold equity, which with a profit margin this thin, you cannot afford. You can see from his stats that he does like to flat call raises as well as 3bet, so some of the hands you're giving him, he must call these sometimes instead of 3betting. Thus, the number of 3bet combos you're giving him is far too high, and that's going to tip the balance.

I think the rake you pay when you win an all in race will also tip the balance. You won't pay rake when he folds pre to the 4bet.

I could be wrong, I hope someone tears this post apart if I'm wrong.

I think your points are good. I may well be overestimating villain's 3bet range, but I've also not included him calling the 2006-stylee 4bet shove with AQ, AJ, ATs, 88, which I've been all in pre before against Russians BvB with stronger holdings than 99.

I think the rake makes my calculation just above even (only affects part (c)). I think I get the real value from potentially tilting villain and creating the kind of volatile dynamic I like to operate in for future profits.

Dude this looks insane to me you are most likely way behind his range. You're shoving your whole BI for a chance at so little. The only way I am ever doing this is if I know villain is complete tard/shove monkey running like 60/60. I see you talking about Russians being over aggressive. Dude is only raising 18% of his hands, and only 3 betting 12%.... his range has you beat for sure and there is probably no fold equity here( better players: what do you think about this??) because he is not likely to fold his 3 betting hands. I bet he had JJ+ for sure. Are u going to post results? I don't mind a 4 bet in general but risking the whole stack seems crazy to me.

Originally Posted by gotigers1234

I bet he had JJ+ for sure. Are u going to post results? I don't mind a 4 bet in general but risking the whole stack seems crazy to me.

Villain rolled over AKo. Had an almost carbon copy of this hand the other day too - I was on the sb with JJ against a Russian on the bb with 70bb. He 3-bet, I shoved again and he also rolled over AKo. I probably still need to stop this play however, but if I folded to every Russian's bb 3bet on the sb on 10nl, there really wouldn't be any point trying to steal with anything other than QQ+.

its not that getting it in is necessarily bad, but 4b shoving doesn't really make any sense

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

its not that getting it in is necessarily bad, but 4b shoving doesn't really make any sense

I would have to disagree with this. Getting it in on BVB while holding 99 is probably pretty bad. Yeah, you may have the best hand now but you're flipping at best and paying rake to boot.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Villain rolled over AKo. Had an almost carbon copy of this hand the other day too - I was on the sb with JJ against a Russian on the bb with 70bb. He 3-bet, I shoved again and he also rolled over AKo. I probably still need to stop this play however, but if I folded to every Russian's bb 3bet on the sb on 10nl, there really wouldn't be any point trying to steal with anything other than QQ+.

Well there are several adjustments we can make. steal smaller, steal bigger, flat 3bets and playing postflop oop, and so on. I think the key is to observe villain's tendencies and not rely on some stereotypes. we can change tables if the sole purpose is to win money, but imo having an aggressive player to our left from time to time is good for our game since we learn to play against them as I think we'll be seeing a lot of these assuming we move up in stakes.

Originally Posted by Shotglass

I would have to disagree with this. Getting it in on BVB while holding 99 is probably pretty bad. Yeah, you may have the best hand now but you're flipping at best and paying rake to boot.

well 10's and J's play similar, so are you just folding pretty much all of your range to 3b's bvb or calling a lot of 3b's oop? or are you taking the infamous 4Bet-Fold line?