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But sets are too rare to fold!

  
 
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Carroters
Old 02-06-2009, 06:45 PM     Post subject: But sets are too rare to fold! #1 (permalink)  
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 1. Villain is a passive donk running 58/11 over 38 hands.
He plays way way too many hands obv and usually takes passive lines on flops, I have been 4xing his sb completes and taking it down with c bets a lot.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (3 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($11.38)
Hero (SB) ($33.55)
BB ($4)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, 3
Button calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.10, BB checks

Flop: ($0.60) K, A, 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.60, 1 fold, Button calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.80) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50

River: ($4.80) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button raises $9.08 (All-In)

Total pot: $10.80

2. Villain here was 34/17 over 32 hands and seemed on the passive side of loose. Hadn't notcie him get out of line at all other than calling too much pre flop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($19.88)
UTG ($24.68)
MP ($5.80)
Hero (Button) ($41.34)
SB ($39.62)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
1 fold, MP (poster) checks, Hero raises $0.90, SB calls $0.80, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.20) J, 4, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.60, SB calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.40) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.75, SB calls $3.75

River: ($12.90) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $12.90

Total pot: $12.90
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Outlaw
Old 02-06-2009, 07:47 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Hand 1- Ugh.. since its a donk and he might make this move with Two pair/22 I think I call.

Hand 2- I think I hold my nose and fold here. What would he bet on the river here with that you are beating?
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Airles™
Old 02-06-2009, 09:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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My pappy used to say, "never be afraid to fold a set, but don't be afraid to shove with middle pair either". Ok, he never really said that, and I never called him "pappy" either. But hopefully you get my point.
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daven
Old 02-06-2009, 09:53 PM     Post subject: Re: But sets are too rare to fold! #4 (permalink)  
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 hand 1 - check river
hand 2 - bet turn WAY harder, pot please
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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swiggidy
Old 02-06-2009, 09:54 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 "Never" fold a set on the flop, IMO.

Hand 1
After he calls turn I'm a little worried. More concerned about showdown than value. If he's passive then river is easy fold.

Hand 2
This is usually a flush, sometimes a terribly played A3 or something. Fold and don't worry about it.
(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
 
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Muzzard
Old 02-06-2009, 10:09 PM     Post subject: Re: But sets are too rare to fold! #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
hand 2 - bet turn WAY harder, pot please
Why? We have denied pot odds with this bet, he only had like 18% equity. Sure we could bet a little more say maybe 4.50, but I don't think it's really acheiving that much if we bet pot.

Especially if we can fold to a big donk on river if flush hits, he's making a pretty big mistake. His range isnt just flush draws, if we keep pot bet slightly smaller we can keep in AJ/JQ/JT type hands and obv JK/Kx floats. OMG flush draw, lets pot it is a pretty bad response imo.

First hand I probably call 3 handed, it pretty unlikey he has a flush and he could be doing this with weird two pair hands etc. I'm not like fist pumping, but I call. I supoose if he's super passive and never shoving 2p or 222 i fold.
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daven
Old 02-06-2009, 10:36 PM     Post subject: Re: But sets are too rare to fold! #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muzzard
Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
hand 2 - bet turn WAY harder, pot please
Why? We have denied pot odds with this bet, he only had like 18% equity. .
note that it's 160bb deep.
Based on the read provided it's likely that he's calling a big turn bet just as often as a small turn bet - so why not get some more money in while we're ahead?
regardless, river is a fold
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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kb coolman
Old 02-06-2009, 11:46 PM     Post subject: Re: But sets are too rare to fold! #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muzzard
Why? We have denied pot odds with this bet, he only had like 18% equity. Sure we could bet a little more say maybe 4.50, but I don't think it's really acheiving that much if we bet pot.
Would you explain this concept to me, please? If I have a villian on a draw, don't I want to bet as much as he will call to magnify his mistake?
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kettleofish
Old 02-07-2009, 12:26 AM #9 (permalink)  
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^^^ A draw is not his entire range tho and it's a mistake to assume he is on a FD every time there is one out there...
There's only one system. Bet. Lose. Borrow. Steal. Lose. Take the drugs. Lose. Prison. Death.
 
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kb coolman
Old 02-07-2009, 02:13 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kettleofish
^^^ A draw is not his entire range tho and it's a mistake to assume he is on a FD every time there is one out there...
But with a set, even more reason to bloat the pot. If we're paying him off with KK/JJ, then meh.
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kettleofish
Old 02-07-2009, 02:28 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Nonono, you misunderstand me. I am saying that there are made hands in his range that have much less equity than a FD does that may fold to a big bet on the turn but will call a smaller bet. We are trying to get value out of our opponents entire range, not just the hands we are most scared of.
There's only one system. Bet. Lose. Borrow. Steal. Lose. Take the drugs. Lose. Prison. Death.
 
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Carroters
Old 02-07-2009, 02:48 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Nonono, you misunderstand me. I am saying that there are made hands in his range that have much less equity than a FD does that may fold to a big bet on the turn but will call a smaller bet. We are trying to get value out of our opponents entire range, not just the hands we are most scared of.
Yeah fwiw I actually remember using this reasoning at the time. Tbh until the river I thought more of his range consisted of Js and mid pps. Wanted to town the range through 3 streets. River really sucked horribly cos he pretty much turned his hand face up yet I still hit that call button knowing I'm beat the vast maority of the time...it's a weak minded discipline issue not a bad read if that makes sense.
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Muzzard
Old 02-07-2009, 12:30 PM     Post subject: Re: But sets are too rare to fold! #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kb coolman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muzzard
Why? We have denied pot odds with this bet, he only had like 18% equity. Sure we could bet a little more say maybe 4.50, but I don't think it's really acheiving that much if we bet pot.
Would you explain this concept to me, please? If I have a villian on a draw, don't I want to bet as much as he will call to magnify his mistake?
OK, lets put him on a range in hand 2. To call this flop be he usually will have a FD/35/JT/JQ/JK/J9/55-TT, possibly some floats. To maximise the value from his whole range we shouldnt mash the pot button as hard as possible, givin that most his range isn't strong enough to call 3 streets for value.

The thing is, most beginners are thinking OMG FD, it's in his range so they try and bet as much as possible to 'deny odds'. However, the bet size was denying odds anyway for the FD and if any bigger may force out some of the weaker end of the range, such as J9/JT/55-TT. If he does have Jx or smaller PP, thats a pretty bad turn card for him. We need to maximise our value prom the WHOLE range rather that just the draw portion.

Also, if we can fold river when flush comes in, if he has FD, he's making a pretty hudge miste as we denied any implied odds that he needed to make up on the river bets wheb we denied pot odds on the turn.
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Muzzard
Old 02-07-2009, 01:18 PM     Post subject: Re: But sets are too rare to fold! #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muzzard
Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
hand 2 - bet turn WAY harder, pot please
Why? We have denied pot odds with this bet, he only had like 18% equity. .
note that it's 160bb deep.
Based on the read provided it's likely that he's calling a big turn bet just as often as a small turn bet - so why not get some more money in while we're ahead?
regardless, river is a fold
Your only thinking about his range limited to flush draws
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Old 02-07-2009, 07:00 PM #15 (permalink)  
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I'm a fan of big river laydowns, and in hand 1 he either has a flush or air because 22 is not in his range by the river
he may ACTUALLY call his set of aces down being afraid of the flush

your hand is essentially a bluff catcher you might as well hold AQ after his river shove

hand 2 is another big river fold, the river donk is people who are afraid of missing value and almost never bluffs
a good player COULD be bluffing noticing the third card of the suit hitting
but not this guy

people generally are NOT way out of line on the river
here are places where people are out of line:
1. preflop the most
2. flop second most
3. turn third most

catch my drift?
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