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Bottom set on turn, oop, w/ big overcards & draws on board, and lots of betting

  
 
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rowhousepd
Old 07-11-2010, 09:02 AM     Post subject: Bottom set on turn, oop, w/ big overcards & draws on board, and lots of betting #1 (permalink)  
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 I guess my big questions here is how much aggression w/ bottom set is too much when there are flush draws and big overcards on the board? In this hand I was facing new opponents & didn't have any good reads, but the villain seemed like a fairly ABC player (for the micros, that is). Should I have even raised preflop in MP+1 w/ 33 to begin w/? And if so, should I reraise my bottom set on the turn w/ this kind of board?

Full Tilt - $0.05 NL RUSH - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $4.34
Hero (MP+1): $5.27
LP: $5.68
CO: $5.13
BTN: $7.21
SB: $2.50
BB: $6.33
UTG: $0.31
UTG+1: $4.95

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 3 3
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.15, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.37, 2 players) A 3 6
Hero bets $0.15, BTN calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.67, 2 players) K
Hero bets $0.40, BTN raises to $0.80
Hero....
  • folds, realizing the board is too dangerous, fearing that I'll get beat by a flush or that I'm already crushed by a higher set?
  • calls, thinking that the villain's relatively small raise is suspicious, and hoping the river is safe -- and if it is, I'll shove then?
  • raises, or maybe shoves, hoping villain has TPTK or maybe 2P?
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deucesomething
Old 07-11-2010, 09:23 AM #2 (permalink)  
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bet flop harder, raise turn & get it in all day. You'll be up against Ax and/or combo draws almost all the time both of which you wtfpwn
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Hoopy
Old 07-11-2010, 10:01 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Think about his range and how he plays it + board texture, what hands fold/call/raise each street?

How is this a dangerous board? 66 is the only other set really possible, and a flush draw only has 17%.

Value bet flop + turn bigger, as played reraising and getting it in is great.
 
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krafty
Old 07-11-2010, 10:11 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Pre-flop is fine although I like to raise 4xbb. Flop you must bet bigger to give worse odds for the draws (ie. $0.3). Turn you raise / get it in.
Quote:
  • folds, realizing the board is too dangerous, fearing that I'll get beat by a flush or that I'm already crushed by a higher set?
The board is dangerous only because there is still the river card to be seen. Therefore you absolutely must raise.
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StarGrinder
Old 07-11-2010, 10:16 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Bet flop 2x as much. Shove the turn. He's only got 3 combos of sets, since AA and KK are highly unlikely. If we fold here every time, we're losing money when he doesn't have 66 and holds A6, Ax, Kx, and loads of combo draws.
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Fnord
Old 07-11-2010, 10:25 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Flop bet size is fine although I'd bet closer or a tad over half pot. Axx is a pretty polarizing board.

With less money behind I'd ship the turn without a second thought.

As played, I'm more inclines to call and lead most river cards.
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Hoopy
Old 07-11-2010, 11:53 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
Flop bet size is fine although I'd bet closer or a tad over half pot. Axx is a pretty polarizing board.

With less money behind I'd ship the turn without a second thought.

As played, I'm more inclines to call and lead most river cards.
With the intention of calling a shove I'm guessing?
 
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Tasha
Old 07-11-2010, 12:03 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
Flop bet size is fine although I'd bet closer or a tad over half pot. Axx is a pretty polarizing board.

With less money behind I'd ship the turn without a second thought.

As played, I'm more inclines to call and lead most river cards.
If Villain doesn't already have a set then the biggest threat is making a flush which is 5.11:1 against.
A raise to just over $0.90 would deny him pot odds to call (I think).
So why just call? Would it not be better to put in that raise?
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JKDS
Old 07-11-2010, 03:16 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
Flop bet size is fine although I'd bet closer or a tad over half pot. Axx is a pretty polarizing board.
At the same time though, many villains at the micros have very inelastic ranges...so if we bet 1/2 pot or full pot we're pretty much getting called by the same hands arent we? Maybe overcards fold now, but we make it easier to stack a villain who has an Ace +get more moeny when he has a draw.

Obv you disagree, so....help?
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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Unibomber14
Old 07-11-2010, 03:47 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
Flop bet size is fine although I'd bet closer or a tad over half pot. Axx is a pretty polarizing board.

With less money behind I'd ship the turn without a second thought.

As played, I'm more inclines to call and lead most river cards.

*First post in like 2 or 3 years btw*

Why let him see the river? My initial thought was raise, and I'd even be willing to felt this seeing as Ax is a huge part of his range here.

Like i said though. I just started playing again, if anyone even remembers me.

Edit: Also, Fnord, I see you have had the same avatar for years. I like the consistency.
"$80 million Submarine mansion. Think about it."
 
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NightGizmo
Old 07-11-2010, 06:40 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
If Villain doesn't already have a set then the biggest threat is making a flush which is 5.11:1 against.
A raise to just over $0.90 would deny him pot odds to call (I think).
So why just call? Would it not be better to put in that raise?
Correction -- if you have 9 outs on the turn, your odds are 4.11:1 against. And you also have to consider that not all of those outs are good ones. If the 6s falls and completes his flush, he's still behind to a boat.

A $.90 raise is too small. The pot would be 3.07 and he would only have to call .90 with over 3.00 behind. He almost has the pot odds to call, and unless you plan on folding to even a small bet if the flush hits, he has the implied odds to continue.

If you think you are way ahead of his calling range here, you should make closer to a pot-sized raise. If you raise it to 3.00, he has to call 2.20 in a pot of 4.40 with only 2.00 behind. That is how you deny him the right odds.

If you don't think he will call that high of a raise with his draws, you can lower it a bit since 3.00 gives him less than 3:1 and he needs at least 4.75:1 (maybe even 5.5:1). For example, a raise to 2.40 only gives him implied odds of 4.0:1, making it a mistake for him to call with just a flush draw.
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Tasha
Old 07-13-2010, 04:36 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NightGizmo View Post
Correction -- if you have 9 outs on the turn, your odds are 4.11:1 against. And you also have to consider that not all of those outs are good ones. If the 6s falls and completes his flush, he's still behind to a boat.
And the 3c would give Hero four of a kind. I think that is how I came up with 5.11:1 in the first place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NightGizmo View Post
For example, a raise to 2.40 only gives him implied odds of 4.0:1, making it a mistake for him to call with just a flush draw.
Thanks, that is what I wanted to know. But how did you get to 2.40 for the implied odds?
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NightGizmo
Old 07-13-2010, 05:39 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
And the 3c would give Hero four of a kind. I think that is how I came up with 5.11:1 in the first place.
Just to make sure our maths are the same:

If he's chasing the spade draw, he has 7-9 outs (depending on whether he has the As or 6s). Similarly, for the club draw, he has 7-9 outs (depending on whether he has the 3c or Kc).

Assuming he can't see your cards (he only knows about his two and the four on the board):
7 outs = 7:39 = 5.57:1
8 outs = 8:38 = 4.75:1
9 outs = 9:37 = 4.11:1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
Thanks, that is what I wanted to know. But how did you get to 2.40 for the implied odds?
Assuming both stacks will go in if he hits his flush, implied odds is simply the amount he has to call in relation to the pot + money behind.

He has to call 1.60, the pot is 3.87, there is about 2.60 behind, so (3.87+2.60):1.60 = 4:1
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paratrooper99
Old 07-13-2010, 08:03 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 IMO, he doesnt have a set. Why?
If I have a set and you c-bet that flop, your getting raised and not with a gay min reraise. I am sure as hell not going to do it on the turn. Based on his play, he likely has 2 pair, FD, or F and st8 draws. All of which we have dominated. On turn, after his gay min reraise, either shove (he will probably think you have a draw and call with 2 pair) or 3 bet hard to pot commit him.
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Tasha
Old 07-14-2010, 07:04 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NightGizmo View Post

He has to call 1.60, the pot is 3.87, there is about 2.60 behind, so (3.87+2.60):1.60 = 4:1
Thanks again, I see where I went wrong in getting 5.11 instead of 4.11. I was working on the scenario that gives Villain the best odds but still made an error.
I think I get it now, except that there is still the respectable opinion that Hero should only call Villains $0.80 raise and not reraise at all. Why is that better than making any kind of raise?
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Imthenewfish
Old 07-14-2010, 07:10 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
Thanks again, I see where I went wrong in getting 5.11 instead of 4.11. I was working on the scenario that gives Villain the best odds but still made an error.
I think I get it now, except that there is still the respectable opinion that Hero should only call Villains $0.80 raise and not reraise at all. Why is that better than making any kind of raise?
there is no respectable opinion of calling here..? it's 5nl rush poker lol..
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rowhousepd
Old 07-16-2010, 05:59 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
IMO, he doesnt have a set. Why?
If I have a set and you c-bet that flop, your getting raised and not with a gay min reraise. I am sure as hell not going to do it on the turn. Based on his play, he likely has 2 pair, FD, or F and st8 draws. All of which we have dominated. On turn, after his gay min reraise, either shove (he will probably think you have a draw and call with 2 pair) or 3 bet hard to pot commit him.
That was pretty much was I was thinking too. I knew I had him beat, didn't suspect a better set w/ his little raises. I was thinking TP w/ a draw ... which is why I 3Bet him, pot-committing him (& me) and waited for the call (which I got) and the showdown.

Well anyway gang, here's how it unfolded....

Turn: ($0.67, 2 players) K
Hero bets $0.40, BTN raises to $0.80,
Hero raises to $2.00,
BTN raises to $6.91 and is all-in,
Hero calls $2.97 and is all-in

River: ($10.61, 2 players) K

Hero shows 3 3 (Full House, Threes full of Kings)
BTN shows A K (Full House, Kings full of Aces)
BTN wins $9.91

In retrospect, I totally agree about betting bigger on the flop, and stacking off on the turn. In all likelihood the villain wouldn't have folded TPTK on the flop to a hefty pot-sized bet so it wouldn't have made it meant much of a difference w/ the a slightly larger bet. I mean, it's the micros after all. I'm wondering though, was my $2.00 3bet on the turn too small?

If we somehow had gotten to the river w/out his re-raise on the turn and we still had chips, I would have had a very hard time (no, actually an impossible time) folding my smaller full house. I suppose I was doomed either way. But still you're advice is helpful here. Thanks!
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rowhousepd
Old 07-16-2010, 06:08 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NightGizmo View Post
Assuming both stacks will go in if he hits his flush, implied odds is simply the amount he has to call in relation to the pot + money behind.

He has to call 1.60, the pot is 3.87, there is about 2.60 behind, so (3.87+2.60):1.60 = 4:1
p.s. Just have to admit here that although I get how these work, and although it's clear (well somewhat clear) in the postmortem, my pea brain is definitely not able to do this in my head w/ the clock ticking. Uuug. Maybe some day....
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Monsieur_chat
Old 07-16-2010, 09:01 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Nh, wp. AK is probably what I'd put him on and you pwned him. Remember, villain luckboxing his boat changes absolutely nothing and I hope it's not the real reason you posted the hand....
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Tasha
Old 07-16-2010, 10:31 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
Flop bet size is fine although I'd bet closer or a tad over half pot. Axx is a pretty polarizing board.

With less money behind I'd ship the turn without a second thought.

As played, I'm more inclines to call and lead most river cards.
This is the respectable opinion that says call, not raise.
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Bear Bones
Old 07-16-2010, 02:20 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Just a side thought. the board is 2 suited. If you call and a spade or a club falls you don't know if he made it or not. Op may have 8 outs to draw to the flush but you have 16 outs to dodge with any confidence that he didn't make it. I think you're ahead and he's willing to get the money in on the turn so get it in before the river kills his draws
and the action.

WP.
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littleogre
Old 07-16-2010, 02:30 PM #22 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
IMO, he doesnt have a set. Why?
If I have a set and you c-bet that flop, your getting raised and not with a gay min reraise. I am sure as hell not going to do it on the turn. Based on his play, he likely has 2 pair, FD, or F and st8 draws. All of which we have dominated. On turn, after his gay min reraise, either shove (he will probably think you have a draw and call with 2 pair) or 3 bet hard to pot commit him.
Donks like to make gay little bets when they have a strong hand though. Can't say how i would play it though as op has already posted the results. Then again some of them make gay little bets when they are bluffing aswell. The call flop min raise turn is usually a strong hand though.
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