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Bluff or give up pot?

  
 
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AFchung
Old 01-21-2009, 02:01 AM     Post subject: Bluff or give up pot? #1 (permalink)  
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21/12 over 100 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($11.20)
MP1 ($13.70)
MP2 ($11.35)
MP3 ($4.40)
Hero (CO) ($13)
Button ($10.95)
SB ($9.35)
BB ($3.30)
UTG ($13.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 4
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, Button raises to $0.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.25) 10, A, 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($1.25) 3 (2 players)
Hero???
 
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DoanDiggy
Old 01-21-2009, 02:06 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Bluffing here doesn't make a lot of sense. Not a lot of better hands are folding, and the only worse hands that are calling are broadway flush draws. If your plan is to bluff here and villain calls, you're going to have to bluff the river as well, but being out of position with nearly any river card to come higher than your hand, you're going to have no idea where you're at. You might get some folds betting here, but in the long run I think it's a losing play.

This is pretty funny. Against a range of top 15%:

Code:
Board: Td Ah Th 3h
Hand 0: 	23.495%  	23.49% 	00.00% 	          1592 	        0.00   { 4c4d }
Hand 1: 	76.505%  	76.51% 	00.00% 	          5184 	        0.00   { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
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atom2k8
Old 01-21-2009, 03:45 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
Bluffing here doesn't make a lot of sense. Not a lot of better hands are folding, and the only worse hands that are calling are broadway flush draws. If your plan is to bluff here and villain calls, you're going to have to bluff the river as well, but being out of position with nearly any river card to come higher than your hand, you're going to have no idea where you're at. You might get some folds betting here, but in the long run I think it's a losing play.

This is pretty funny. Against a range of top 15%:
got to agree here uve missed the flop check if he bets u fold if u bet your more than likely just going to give up more money pair of fours is very weak here and not worth the risk
 
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hangchiong
Old 01-21-2009, 11:09 AM #4 (permalink)  
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hangchiong
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
Bluffing here doesn't make a lot of sense. Not a lot of better hands are folding, and the only worse hands that are calling are broadway flush draws. If your plan is to bluff here and villain calls, you're going to have to bluff the river as well, but being out of position with nearly any river card to come higher than your hand, you're going to have no idea where you're at. You might get some folds betting here, but in the long run I think it's a losing play.

This is pretty funny. Against a range of top 15%:

Code:
Board: Td Ah Th 3h
Hand 0: 	23.495%  	23.49% 	00.00% 	          1592 	        0.00   { 4c4d }
Hand 1: 	76.505%  	76.51% 	00.00% 	          5184 	        0.00   { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
well said.try to keep the bluff in the minimum in micro stakes.
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Old 01-22-2009, 02:29 AM #5 (permalink)  
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depends on reads
which flops does he cbet?
when he checks instead of cbetting, is he ready to give up the pot?

useful stats not provided: cbet %, agression frequency/factor

but the key to this hand is that you should have raised PF and cbet that flop
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bigspenda73
Old 01-22-2009, 02:31 AM #6 (permalink)  
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give it up or fire twice

I'm fine with PF, limping behind a limper is ok with me at these stakes.
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Old 01-22-2009, 02:33 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Ed Miller thinks people limp behind way too often

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/a...erlimping.html
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bigspenda73
Old 01-22-2009, 02:40 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Ed Miller thinks people limp behind way too often

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/a...erlimping.html
I've only read a little bit about what he wrote but he was assuming a bad positional advantage, and in Hero's hand here we're in the CO. He's also assuming it will be hard for us to get paid, which at this limit we know is untrue.

It'd be very table dependent for me. If the initial limper likes to limp/fold and the blinds/button are tight-ish I'd raise. If they're all loose/passive I completely believe limping behind is the correct play.
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