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The Bluff catch

  
 
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gingerwizard
Old 07-18-2007, 03:05 PM     Post subject: The Bluff catch #1 (permalink)  
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 You have a reasonable holding (TPTK, overpair, or what was Top pair until the river) and have bet aggressively up to the river, but you have been called down. There were two cards of the same suit on the flop and the river didn't bring the flush card. You are OOP

The more hands I play, the more I've come to like check calling here to catch the bluff. Here are the pros and cons:

Pro: By betting they will likely fold the busted draws but call or push with the sets, two pair or hands that rivered you. So opponents betting range if checked to is wider and a call has a greater expectation.

Con: Having bet 2 streets and preflop the pot may be substantial and river bluffs are often very large, so calling can be a wrench, especially if that river did make him two pair or higher pair than yours.

Pro: You make the maximum from drawing opponents who can't let go

Pro: Many 2pairs or higher pairs that beat you will call a river bet but check behind you to see a showdown. (Not many players want to push 1/2 stack on the river with 1 pair or two small pair.)

Pro: By 2 barreling then checking the river, you look weak and therefore a tempting target for bluffers. In fact you are strong, just not as strong as you would like.

Con: Always calling big river bets with 1 pair hands makes you very exploitable.


Ok so there are my thoughts on The Bluff Catch. At 50NL and below (the stakes i'm used to) I think this is very profitable, especially againt the aggressive players and I think that the pros outweigh the cons. But I'm interested to know how everybody else likes to play this situation.

I'll continue to employ this for a while and see how it goes so If you see me at the table and you've missed your draw, think carefully before trying to push me off!
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wufwugy
Old 07-18-2007, 11:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 We induce more bluffs than we are aware.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 07-19-2007, 12:25 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 The question is really what is villains river aggression.

What is the best play if he is aggro?
What is the best play if he is passive?

I would presume that it's check/call if he's aggro and bet/fold if he's passive.
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BankItDrew
Old 07-19-2007, 12:31 AM     Post subject: Re: The Bluff catch #4 (permalink)  
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 Great post ginger, this is one of my favorite plays. Couple things I disagree with though...

Quote:
Originally Posted by gingerwizard
Con: Having bet 2 streets and preflop the pot may be substantial and river bluffs are often very large, so calling can be a wrench, especially if that river did make him two pair or higher pair than yours.

Con: Always calling big river bets with 1 pair hands makes you very exploitable.
con 1: if we bet the river then call, the pot will be even larger than it would be if we had checked our weaker hand.

con 2: of course, but if we deliberatly choose a check call line because we are trying to induce bluffs, villains will be weary next time they decide to our make moves on us. It may turn our image into that of a calling station.

This is the same image Negranu attemps to employ. And it's beneficial to him because of all the pros mentioned.
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gingerwizard
Old 07-19-2007, 12:49 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 I agree with your disagreement. I just wanted to think of cons to balance it.

As for the river aggression factor:

I have HUD but I don't use it. Sure against the regs you see every day you can get a feel with how they play such situations. But that can come from study after the game. Most people you see, you only get to play a couple of times. And I don't see the point in HUD then because the stats are articficial at best.

Say you've played 200 hands with some guy with low river aggression. Does that mean that when he's missed a draw having called 3 bets that he won't bluff the river if checked to? Is he likely to have come accross that situation once in 200 hands. Think about it. How many hands do you take to the river out of 200? And out of those how often should it come up?

Now here's the comedy. People think 200 hands is a lot to have with someone!

In short I think you should make the play with the best expectation and I'm saying that I think that is check/call and looking fdr discussion
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mixchange
Old 07-19-2007, 12:58 AM #6 (permalink)  
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check/call is a fantastic play on the river with decent but not spectacular hands. You'll get extra value on bluffs, and avoid overpaying to see the river when you are beat.

I don't think its really a question of river aggro factor, thats over-analysis by Poker Tracker/HUD. It's totally hand specific.
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BankItDrew
Old 07-19-2007, 05:17 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gingerwizard
Now here's the comedy. People think 200 hands is a lot to have with someone!
I can have a good read on an opponent depending on the way they played one hand. River aggression factor, of course, requires many hands sampled.

My brother downloaded some new poker software that puts icons next to villains, such as fish, rocks, telephones (calling stations) etc. It also shows your pot odds, a few stats on villains and gives 'Madden' like suggestions on what to do (fold, call, check, raise). One example is late in an MTT with JJ UTG. It suggests to fold because you are getting like 1.6 - 1 pot odds with 8 people to act behind you.... lol
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