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bjj_jay
Old 10-17-2004, 05:24 PM     Post subject: Betting With Overcards #1 (permalink)  

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This a difficult situation for me. When I have overcards, I'm unsure how much chasing I should do hoping for the top pair. For example:

AJ

Flop: 10 4 Q

I realize that there are a lot of variables here but I need some general advice. Is it correct to assume that someone at least has a pair of Qs? 10s? If that's the case, under what circumstances should I pursue the turn/river?

Thanks in advance. This is great forum for beginners.
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HeavyP
Old 10-17-2004, 05:41 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Assuming it's raised preflop 3xBB at least, depending on the amount of callers. Queens are one of the cards I like to see in that situation because most people will throw them away to a raise (not pocket queens) but you should know if you are up against a larger pocket.

So to answer your question we need a lil more info, but I have no problem scrapping my A J in that situation, Just try to play your pot odds of an over card with a gutshot.
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Humphrind
Old 10-17-2004, 05:47 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Ask yourself 1 question. What do you want? Then figure out how likely it will be to get it.

Do you want an Ace? A Jack? A King? Will an Ace/Jack hurt you more than help you? Those are tainted outs because they put a straight possibility on the board. Depending on the suits on the board, you have 4 outs to the nuts, the 4 Ks. And 3 outs to a good hand (3 As) Because the Js are too risky and puts too many straight possibilities out there, I wouldn't want one to fall. It would improve our hand, but it could make someone elses. I think those outs are too tainted to count.

So we have a total of 7 outs. And 47 unseen cards. That gives us a 15% chance to make a good hand. Now you can ask yourself if you should see the turn/river and at what cost.

You should never naturally assume that someone has top pair just because they could. Look at the person and their betting style. They will give you your answer. It's just a matter of listening.
I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.
 
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TLR
Old 10-18-2004, 01:06 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
So we have a total of 7 outs. And 47 unseen cards. That gives us a 15% chance to make a good hand. Now you can ask yourself if you should see the turn/river and at what cost.
I think that your chances are better the 15%, you can catch you card on the turn or the river, so it is
1-(40/47)*(39/46)) = 28%

So you have 28% chance of catching your hand in this case.

But the question is would a pair of aces give you the best hand, considering that a pair of aces also gives a straight draw on the board.

My view is that if you do not believe an ace high will win your hand do not chase one overcard
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LeFou
Old 10-21-2004, 03:27 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Yuck. You're a coinflip at best to any pocket pair, any four -- to say nothing of the big cards.

The only thing I see you beating hard is a ragged King. You're 3 to 1 over a King with an outside draw.

If there was any preflop action at all, wouldn't touch this with a ten foot stack of chips.
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Radashack
Old 10-21-2004, 03:48 PM #6 (permalink)  
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In this situation I would test a decent sized bet on the flop (depending on how many people are in the hand). If someone flat out calls you or raises you check/fold usually (depends on your read). DON'T get caught up in AJ I used to and it busted me out of a lot of tourney's.

A different overcard position is say AJ with a board of 2 5 9, a good amoutn of players will check these situations Don't check! Bet, its better to take down a pot when no one has a hand and gain a few chips then forfeit the hand by drawing free cards and getting outdrawn.
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LeFou
Old 10-21-2004, 04:11 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Radashack
A different overcard position is say AJ with a board of 2 5 9,
Bingo. You don't really have overcards. You have a Singular Overcard, and one that lots of people who see the flop seem to have pretty often.

The flop pairs your hand 32% of the time. With 3 people in a flop there is only
(.68) ^ 3 = 31% chance that no one is paired.

When you bet fat, you (theoretically) get rid of all non-pairs, probably mid and bottom pairs, and (with Two overcards) have a 14% chance of beating top pair before it's over.

If you put in a PF raise, you might even get top pair to fold b/c they'll put you on higher pp.
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