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Betting BIG to deter someone drawing for nut flush.

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Robert Tiltin'

08-12-2005, 07:48 AM Post subject: Betting BIG to deter someone drawing for nut flush.

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2005

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Ok - here's the deal. I've been getting burned in these situations. I'll give an example.

I hold KsQs on button

I Bet 3 x BB
one caller

flop comes 4d 8c Kd

caller checks

I bet 1.5X pot

he calls

at this point, I am very sure he's looking for the last diamond.. I can generally read pretty good and I would say I had this guy pretty bibilofied..

Anyways - Here's the questionable play:

I go all in for my full buy in.. we both had full buy in before the hand started..

he calls..

River diamond gived him nut flush w/ Ad 6d

Now this is where I'm questioning this strategy of "trying to make draws unattractive".

I'm thinking that I'm speeding up the implied odds process for them. By putting out that huge bet, it means they are garuenteed to get that amount IF they hit, whereas, if I played it slower then I would have to pay them off to make it profitable. This is reverse implied odds, possibly?

Now - I validate my play by saying "if they miss, then I get paid".. I mean, is that what I should say to myself and bite the bullet and drop the proverbial hammer?

Of course, I think I lose more by doing this, because I remember the bad beats easier then when they miss and I get paid, but I wouldn't be posting this if I didn't question this strategy. I've been right about the person drawing for a flush very often, because I won't usually put a full buyin on the line without a good read.

Thanks for listening.. In short - I'm wondering if super-overbetting is a DETERRENT or an INCENTIVE to the person chasing. I know why it's a deterrent, and I'm thinking it's an incentive because it's a LOCk for a big amount, IF they hit.

Thanks! Comments very welcomed!!

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lamaros

08-12-2005, 08:51 AM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

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It's a deterrent.

midas06

08-12-2005, 09:43 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Yea, I agree, betting big is the way to go there, to get them off their nut draw.

arkana

08-12-2005, 09:57 AM

#4 (permalink)

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You are thinking about it all wrong, you want to bet as much as they will call because you are a favourite to win the hand. You dont want them to fold because then you are losing money. Just dont pay them off big when they hit and you will make big fat bags of money.

Irisheyes

08-12-2005, 10:29 AM

#5 (permalink)

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The only people who are going to call all in on a flush draw are fish.

I would think their thought process goes like so:

"HOLY SHIT, look at all those chips he just put out! I'm only 1 diamond (1 CARD!!!) away from winning a whole buy in! With the nuts! WOW! Theres loads of diamonds in the deck, is this guy mad!? Call."

In this case its an incentive.

Against someone who knows what they're doing a pot size bet should be enough to give them bad odds to call if you dont wan't them too. Or what arkana said.

I would think an all in push is a bit strong and it sends out other messages other then wanting to put a guy off a draw. It gives anyone with 'he's bluffing syndrome' and top pair an incentive to call.

08-12-2005, 11:20 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by arkana

Yep, calling is a mistake. Make them call as much money as possible. DO NOT make people with draws fold.

edudlive

08-12-2005, 11:24 AM

#7 (permalink)

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He'll miss more often than he'll hit. You did the right thing.

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Miffed22001

08-12-2005, 02:07 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Bet the pot on the flop.
overbet the pot on the turn.
if you think he hits dont put a penny more in.
You win 6/7 times out of ten?
dont donate him your buy in, just donate that pot for every few times he wins, label him and then make him pay each time.
imo, while pushing isnt -ev id rather lose 20/30% my stack by being sucked out on to bad odds, knowing ill make more than that the next few times he draws, than lose my stack a few times.
As said previously, i think the push is an incentive as omg im only one card from a flush. They call anything. just make sure they only win a limited few pots whereas you win more limited pots. Therefore +ev. Unless of course losing your buy-in doesnt make you tilt?
Conversly in mtt, i always push. I just think you can outplay some1 like this at a cash table.

08-12-2005, 02:11 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Problem with pushing is when someone has you beat :/

Laeelin

08-12-2005, 02:15 PM

#10 (permalink)

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push and pray they call!

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

Robert Tiltin'

08-12-2005, 02:42 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

"HOLY SHIT, look at all those chips he just put out! I'm only 1 diamond (1 CARD!!!) away from winning a whole buy in! With the nuts! WOW! Theres loads of diamonds in the deck, is this guy mad!? Call."

YES!! This is EXACTLY what I feel they are thinking sometimes. That's why I posted this!

As for the guy who said it looks like a bluff and that may induce a call.. That may also be the case, too. I bet fast regardless of my hand, so I do not fall into one of those "bet weak when strong, strong when weak" reads.

I tend to overbet the river with or without the nuts, so it makes it a tougher decision too, but it pisses me off that I was Mr. Super Tight and this last incident did not warrant a sheriff call because I was really playing tight and gave no hint of maniacal play.

Like I said - I'm probably remembering the bad incidents and forgetting the good ones. When faced with this situation of trying to deter a draw (which I am faced with often) I will record the date, the player(s), my read, and the results and see what happens after a # of times. Then.. We'll see..

I should come out ahead more than 60% of the time - IF my read is right..

08-12-2005, 03:18 PM

#12 (permalink)

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do no deter a draw
let them draw
for a price

a500lbgorilla

08-12-2005, 04:19 PM

#13 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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If you always bet atleast half the pot and no more than the pot and learn to not pay off the drawers, you will be profitable. You want them to call beaten.

You have to become a stronger player than going AI the momment you think they're on a draw.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Laeelin

08-12-2005, 05:11 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

whats weak about going all in with the best hand against a fish that will call you?

i'd do that all day long

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

Robert Tiltin'

08-14-2005, 05:24 AM

#15 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2005

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Ok.. Remember I said I was going to track these "moments".

First one, so far.

Of course, I lose.. 166 person MTT, kinda early.

I would like comments.

Did I play it right?
I think I did, although there could have been a flopped str8 or overset, I felt I did the right thing. What do you think?

Would you call if you were him?
I don't think I would. No peice of the flop except for a draw. I probably wouldn't. What would you do if you were in his spot?

I am THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES

PokerStars Game #2334101363: Tournament #11249404, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/08/14 - 01:15:40 (ET)
Table '11249404 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: StickyStaX (2305 in chips)
Seat 2: BaRutal (1545 in chips)
Seat 3: THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES (2930 in chips)
Seat 5: shorty281 (3255 in chips)
Seat 6: dtuff (1840 in chips)
Seat 7: Marvelman86 (910 in chips)
Seat 8: In Harms Way (2870 in chips)
Seat 9: evster27 (925 in chips)
StickyStaX: posts small blind 25
BaRutal: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES [2h 2d]
THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES: calls 50
shorty281: raises 100 to 150
dtuff: folds
Marvelman86: folds
In Harms Way: folds
evster27: folds
StickyStaX: calls 125
BaRutal: calls 100
THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES: calls 100
*** FLOP *** [5c 2c 3s]
StickyStaX: checks
BaRutal: checks
THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES: bets 2780 and is all-in
shorty281: calls 2780
StickyStaX: folds
BaRutal: folds
*** TURN *** [5c 2c 3s] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [5c 2c 3s Tc] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES: shows [2h 2d] (three of a kind, Deuces)
shorty281: shows [9c Ac] (a flush, Ace high)
shorty281 collected 6160 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6160 | Rake 0
Board [5c 2c 3s Tc 8c]
Seat 1: StickyStaX (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: BaRutal (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: THE_GUY_WHO_LOSES showed [2h 2d] and lost with three of a kind, Deuces
Seat 5: shorty281 showed [9c Ac] and won (6160) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 6: dtuff folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Marvelman86 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: In Harms Way folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: evster27 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

journey075

08-14-2005, 06:30 AM

#16 (permalink)

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you played it a little hastily, but you got a call so good play by you.

i call if im him because i have to think i have 2 overs + a flush draw. youre repping a weak overpair more than a made hand (set).

neither of you played that badly i think.

Laeelin

08-14-2005, 07:01 AM

#17 (permalink)

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BTW an important thing to rember is that your not betting big to deter draws, your betting big so that when they call it's +EV for you instead of +EV for them.

When your betting enough to give them bad odds, you WANT them to call... just be ready to back down if the draw hits...

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

DaNutsInYoEye

08-14-2005, 07:02 AM

#18 (permalink)

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Just make sure you bet enough that they aren't getting the proper odds to draw. The type of people that try to draw without the proper odds will do so regardless if it's pot sized bet or their entire stack. Why risk your entire stack just because they're willing to also.

Totally overlooked in this discussion though is that your going AI with TP and a Q kicker. What if your read is wrong and your opponent has a set? What if they had even 2 pair or AK? Because of this I don't like your push. So many people say they know they're opponent had this specific hand, but really you should be considering a range of possible hands if you're going to be pushing your entire stack. Just bet so they dont have proper odds to draw. Going AI is just overkill and not necessary.

TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?

Robert Tiltin'

08-14-2005, 07:10 AM

#19 (permalink)

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Posts: 53

If I was him, I'd think "suspicious bet - 'a please don't call me' bet". Mainly because of the limp-in, but limpers are set-prone... I don't think he thinks that deep.

But, he had a few hands to see me play.

Prior to this hand, I'd fast played AK pre and post flop and had appeared to be tight / aggressive as I took down the pot at showdown with hard betting on the flop (K high) and heavy betting on all streets (opp. had K9). I guess I'm saying - I don't think he thought I was bluffing..

I looked at my options as this:

check - free card. cards that aren't filling me up are only outs for him. I don't like.

bet the pot - in my experience, a flush draw calls here. Not saying it's correct or incorrect, but from my experience that will not deter the nut flush drawer and is not "good value" in my opinion, but not as risky.

bet half my stack - it gives me value, but I can see what comes. If a flush card came, I could fold. From my experience, I would also get a NFD caller here, especially with another street to come, but this leaves me with a way out of the hand. Maybe most here would consider an option along these lines? It's a good balance of risk / reward,

push everything I have into the middle - I'm counting on having the best hand here. In this situation, I was 99% sure I currently held the best hand. I was unable to see action from one more opponent, but I figured the chances of one opp. having flopped str8 or overset is very slim. This is a one-way play for me, but I can get a fold or boat up. I didn't want another card to come without having all my money in at that moment.

Those are the options I'd reviewed. Does anyone think I had others? If so, what were they?

I had semi-incomplete information based on my position, so I'd based my decision mainly on the odds of me having the best hand at the time, considering the raiser had raised "any ace" and worse before (I wouldn't be too far off if I said donkey or llama style play) He could have easily had an overset, but I went with the odds that he wouldn't which is usually a safe bet.

Laeelin

08-14-2005, 07:32 AM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

ummm, because i'd rather have a 65% chance to take a $200 pot than to have a 65% of winning a $20 pot.

Quote:

Totally overlooked in this discussion though is that your going AI with TP and a Q kicker. What if your read is wrong and your opponent has a set? What if they had even 2 pair or AK? Because of this I don't like your push. So many people say they know they're opponent had this specific hand, but really you should be considering a range of possible hands if you're going to be pushing your entire stack.

Very true, i'd want a set or better before pushing.

Quote:

Just bet so they dont have proper odds to draw. Going AI is just overkill and not necessary.

overkill?

I dont know about you, but I want to make the most money I can, not avoid a HUGE +EV move because they might get lucky... Sure you have have bigger swings, but your profit is much higher.

If I could make that move 10 times a day, I wouldnt need to win the lottery.

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

08-14-2005, 10:12 AM

#21 (permalink)

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You played the set correctly IF you were hoping for a call. And you SHOULD be hoping for a call.

I wouldn't call in that spot because I would fear that some of my outs would be gone and my pot odds weren't enough.

Robert Tiltin'

08-14-2005, 01:57 PM

#22 (permalink)

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To be honest, in this situation I didn't want a caller unless it was for a significant amount of chips, since a call would give another chance for me to lose.

Extracting value hasn't been a weak point in my play - it's getting my hand extracted from me!! In other words, I don't fear losing value with that particular board. To me, the possibilities to lose vs 4 opps was enough to make me not worry about taking the pot right there and not getting big $s from a set.

I feel I'm in an awkward time at this point in my playing. I swore off slow playing a while ago. Am I destined to swear off fast playing? Heh.

BobbySalami

08-14-2005, 03:31 PM

#23 (permalink)

Flush

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How did you "know" someone was drawing in that situation the action was checked to you...You cant really expect anyone to call you in that situation except for a few hands that beat you...you want to get callers with a set, why scare them off?...then if a scare card hits reevaluate and go from there.

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Miffed22001

08-14-2005, 04:33 PM

#24 (permalink)

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If he calls you with the flush draw hes both an ass and not a good player imo.
But then it always seems to encourage them to call when you go in. Yes, i have to say that hands like these especially in mtt play are the ones that help you make the money when you win them, either holding up or by improving. With approx 3 wins to the drawers one i'd go all in too.
As for the cash table, i reiterate my point. If you can outplay these opponents for long periods and pick up more pots the push is not the right option imo. Just bet the pot each time and if you think he hits or he goes mad on the turn/river when scare cards appear then fold. I'd rather lose a medium sized pot on 2 or 3 occsasions but win 6/7 medium pots when he misses.
personally losing a buy in puts me on tilt, or at least makes me quit for a while, therefore i play it that way.
Just my 20 cents.

08-14-2005, 08:57 PM

#25 (permalink)

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Well another reason to bet only up to amount in the pot is for when he hits a set and you're in big trouble. At least maybe you can get away with as little as you can lose with TPGK

(he could also have AK)

a500lbgorilla

08-14-2005, 09:41 PM

#26 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Laeelin

Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

whats weak about going all in with the best hand against a fish that will call you?

i'd do that all day long

Going AI and scaring the fish with a worse hand away. Which will happen all day long.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

baudib

08-14-2005, 09:46 PM

#27 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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In a MTT don't you have to turn down some positive EV plays, even hugely profitable EV plays, to conserve chips?

Playing big pots at small stakes.

Laeelin

08-14-2005, 09:49 PM

#28 (permalink)

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Quote:

Going AI and scaring the fish with a worse hand away. Which will happen all day long.

They call often! =)

If i'm not against a fish that I think will call, then i'll bet whatever I think I can get them to call.

Rember that a big fish looks at the bet and thinks: "Wow, look at all that money I can win with just one more spade!!!!" .. CALLL!!!!

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

Laeelin

08-14-2005, 10:04 PM

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

personally losing a buy in puts me on tilt

now, thats a GREAT reason to not go all in..

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

BobbySalami

08-14-2005, 10:09 PM

#30 (permalink)

Flush

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Laeelin

Quote:

Going AI and scaring the fish with a worse hand away. Which will happen all day long.

I dont think that they make a call enough there to make it +EV, and then including the times you dont win from their draw or are drawing dead...I think it is a bad move unless you are like 90% sure they will call it with a lesser holding. But maybe thats just my opinion.

If you wanna turn your daddy parts ORANGE eat some cheetos and watch some porn!

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Robert Tiltin'

08-14-2005, 10:58 PM

#31 (permalink)

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Call with a lesser holding?

No one EVER does that!!

Of course they call! They ALWAYS do!!!

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08-14-2005, 11:05 PM

#32 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib

In a MTT don't you have to turn down some positive EV plays, even hugely profitable EV plays, to conserve chips?

Only very slightly favorable spots should be avoided, like a coinflip with you having the pair.

Hugely profitable EV plays is how you win tournaments

DaNutsInYoEye

08-14-2005, 11:25 PM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

overkill?

I dont know about you, but I want to make the most money I can, not avoid a HUGE +EV move because they might get lucky... Sure you have have bigger swings, but your profit is much higher.

You missed my point totally. You ASSUME he is on a flush draw. If you're wrong then it's huge -EV for you.

TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?

Laeelin

08-14-2005, 11:46 PM

#34 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

Quote:

overkill?

I dont know about you, but I want to make the most money I can, not avoid a HUGE +EV move because they might get lucky... Sure you have have bigger swings, but your profit is much higher.

You missed my point totally. You ASSUME he is on a flush draw. If you're wrong then it's huge -EV for you.

Actually, you missed the rest of my post.... namely...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laeelin

Very true, i'd want a set or better before pushing.

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

DaNutsInYoEye

08-14-2005, 11:47 PM

#35 (permalink)

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touche

TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?

caelis

08-17-2005, 03:55 AM

#36 (permalink)

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Posts: 15

well if he thought you only had like top pair, then him calling would be the correct call because he'd have 6 pairing outs + 9 flush outs

i'd bet 1.5x-2x on the flop and push on the turn if club doesn't come up...or fold depending on my read if it does

I am a fish.

Laeelin

08-17-2005, 04:56 AM

#37 (permalink)

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All-In or 1.5 X pot is everything to do w ith who your playing.

Thats why I found it the best move at the very low limits... I was called like 3 out of 4 times. Now that I'm playing at the .50/1.00 level, I make more betting about the pot.

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

Bmxicle

08-17-2005, 07:22 AM

#38 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by arkana

quoted for truth.

IN poker you want your opponent to make mistakes, by overbetting huge when someone is drawing (especially when you have a better draw then him) you are preventing you opp from making a mistake.

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