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scotladd
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04-18-2009, 04:09 PM
Post subject: Betting Axs profitably
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 68
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When betting PP's I read that you want to ensure that you and your villain have at least 10x the amount to call in your stack, based on the odds of flopping your 3rd were 9-1.
Now I also read that your odds of flopping a flush with Axs run 10.9% (which I think is 9-1 as well). Does that mean when calling with Axs does the same 10x rule applies?
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AdamThePirate
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Manchester
Posts: 142
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With PPs, if you are looking to set mine, you should only call a raise if the person has 15x the raise amount in his stack.
The chance of flopping a set is 8.3/1
The chance of flopping a flush (regardless of what hand you have) is 118/1
The chance of flopping a flush draw is 8.1/1
The chance of making a flush from the flop to the river is 15/1
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scotladd
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 68
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AdamThePirate
The chances of flopping a flush (regardless of what hand you have) is 1:118.
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Ah ok, the odds would be 10.9% of flopping a flush draw.
My bad.
Ok, with that said, how do you bet, or call actually, Ax suited profitably?
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by scotladd
Quote:
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Originally Posted by AdamThePirate
The chances of flopping a flush (regardless of what hand you have) is 1:118.
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Ah ok, the odds would be 10.9% of flopping a flush draw.
My bad.
Ok, with that said, how do you bet, or call actually, Ax suited profitably? |
1. # of opponents already in hand
2. stack sizes
3. position
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scotladd
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 68
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Ok, how do the # of oppenents in the hand affect the call range? What kind of minimum stack sizes do they need to have to make the call profitable over the long run given the odds of flopping a flush? I assume UTG is a no-no, how late in position do I need to be to justify a call?
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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I have a feeling this thread is going to turn out pretty badly. First off, when we are saying "call" we are talking about calling a villain's raise. We aren't talking about "calling" the big blind, which we refer to as limping. While it is certainly profitable to limp "behind" with small PPs, so that you can play a multi-way pot with a hand with great nut hand potential (sets), it is usually advisable to not open limp (be the first to limp), because this takes away the majority of your other chances to win the hand (everyone fold preflop, cbet, bluff later, etc). So if you are referring to how large the effective stacks needs to be to make calling a raise with a PP profitable preflop, then the answer is around 15x the size of the raise. This is based on the % you flop your set and the likelihood you make enough from villain when you do hit.
Regarding your Axs situations, you need to be a little more specific. Are you referring to calling a villain's raise, are you referring to limping, or what? You likely shouldn't be calling too many raises preflop with hands like A5s, ATs, AJs. And you especially shouldn't be doing it on the sole intent of flopping a flush or a flush draw.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Also.. How do you think the number of opponents in a hand affects your decision? Because it does. It's obviously still dependent on the situation, but the number of players at the table affects your overall general strategy. It stands to reason that the number of players involved in the current hand is going to affect your play as well.
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scotladd
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 68
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Sorry for the confusion. I really didn't articulate what I was looking for well it seems. As for calling with the PP's, I only used them as a reference for explaining how I had come up with the 10x assumption for the Axs question.
From what I have seen, the consensus for stack size seems to be 10-15x to play PP's profitably since you will see your set 1 in 9 times.
Using the same reasoning I was looking for an analogy to calling a bb or raise preflop with Axs. I had misread and the odds of flopping a flush draw was 10.9%, not the true odds of 118-1 that you will flop a flush when holding Axs.
Now, all that being said, with the odds 118-1, is it profitable to play Axs from anywhere earlier than BU? If so, what kind of a situation do I need to look for to ensure that over the long run, Axs turns out to be a profitable hand to call a bb or min raise with?
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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There is just so many more factors that must be considered before a correct answer can be given imo. How about throwing up a Hand History that accurately represents the situation you have a question about?
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scotladd
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 68
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Ok fair enough. In all honesty there wasn't a single hand I was curious about. I hit my flush calling with Ax suited today on three different occasions, and it occured to me how much that was probably against the odds.
I looked up the odds and thought about it a bit. Originally I had thought the odds much higher than they turned out to be.
Now, normally I call Axs on feel (a few guys in the hand and a raise under 5bb or so). Though I figured if I took a more logical, disciplined approach to it I would profit more.
I guess the odds on it are just too broad to set up a strategy for it?
At 118-1 I would assume you would need stacks to be ...14x the bet if there are 8 people in on the hand? Is that the right approach mathematically to ensuring it's profitable? That's assuming it's a full ring, with everyone in on the bb?
Sorry if I am not looking at this incorrectly math-wise, my advanced poker problem solving is quite elementary right now.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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You want a massivly multi-way pot and/or lots of money behind or a 2-3 wayish pot where you figure to be able to steal often.
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 701
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I play Axs pretty much the same way as suited connectors. Ideally the initial raiser (or a caller) will have a deep stack (~20x his pfr) and there will be two more callers too. The fact is, you need a lot of action to make Axs profitable.
More important though is how your opponents will act post-flop. It's rarely worth trying against someone who PSB's any two-tone board because you won't hit often enough to make it +EV. Also, if you notice your opponent will not stack off on a board with a complete flush (there's a lot of this type about) again, it's not worth it because you won't get paid.
So yeah you need about 20/1 odds and the right table conditions to make Axs profitable, and that's not very often.
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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I generally shy away from playing Axs unless i'm on the BU or am confident i will be last to act (e.g. in the CO and BU only calls 5% of PFR's). Is this wrong? nut flush draws are ballin' but i feel they lose so much value if you're OOP or if you're up against an aggro opponent who won't let you see a single free card.
too nitty? does number of players in pot trump position in this case?
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