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spoonitnow
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07-25-2006, 01:23 PM
Post subject: Betting against a flush draw
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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This HH was edited from a different thread.
Hero and Villian both start with $50 stacks, have $40 behind, blinds are $0.25/0.50, and they are alone in the hand on a 10-handed table.
Hero has position on Villian with Q , A.
Villian is probably on a flush draw.
The board is:
Q , 2 , 5, 8 ($20.25)
Villian checks.
How much do we bet, and why?
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Wyvver
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Straight
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 125
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What was the betting before that?
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- Don't Panic -
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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well if we assume hero is smart then we can trust his read of opp being probably on a flush draw.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I usually bet $10 here to keep the pot size under control, deny odds to the flush draw and still encourage a call. If I know he's a chaser and will call $15 on a draw I'll bet that instead.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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stop his pot odds. gg chaser.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
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Let's say you bet $10.
For him to call this bet and still make it a good move on his part, he'd have to get at least $20 more in on the river.
Villain calls and pot is now $40.
River is a 
Villain value bets by betting half pot. Do you call the cheap river with the strong feeling he was on a draw? Probably not. Maybe.
To eliminate odds, simply follow through with the following calculations:
Correct turn bet = X
X> = (9/46)(Pot+Lowest stack)
= (.2)(20+40)
= $12
To eliminate implied odds, bet more than $12. Call any river.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItPayette
To eliminate implied odds, bet more than $12. Call any river.
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I dunno. Always calling a river heart is only +EV if villain will bet KQ or QJ the same as he would a made flush. I'm fine with betting more on the turn, in fact hero should bet as much as he thinks villain will call with a draw, without pot committing himself (in case villain c/r's all-in with a set). Then he can re-evaluate on the river.
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freechus9
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItPayette
Let's say you bet $10.
For him to call this bet and still make it a good move on his part, he'd have to get at least $20 more in on the river.
Villain calls and pot is now $40.
River is a
Villain value bets by betting half pot. Do you call the cheap river with the strong feeling he was on a draw? Probably not. Maybe.
To eliminate odds, simply follow through with the following calculations:
Correct turn bet = X
X> = (9/46)(Pot+Lowest stack)
= (.2)(20+40)
= $12
To eliminate implied odds, bet more than $12. Call any river. |
It's actually any bet more than 15. 60:12 is 5:1, but a flush draw hitting is 4:1. A 15 dollar bet would make the odds 4:1, which is breakeven for a flush draw. So any bet more than 15 would give correct odds... I could be wrong?
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by freechus9
It's actually any bet more than 15. 60:12 is 5:1, but a flush draw hitting is 4:1. A 15 dollar bet would make the odds 4:1, which is breakeven for a flush draw. So any bet more than 15 would give correct odds... I could be wrong?
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A flush draw isn't 4:1 because:
9 outs & 46 unknown cards = 9/46 = 0.18
Although there are 4 types of suits, you hold 4 of the 13 already.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItPayette
To eliminate implied odds, bet more than $12. Call any river.
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I dunno. Always calling a river heart is only +EV if villain will bet KQ or QJ the same as he would a made flush. I'm fine with betting more on the turn, in fact hero should bet as much as he thinks villain will call with a draw, without pot committing himself (in case villain c/r's all-in with a set). Then he can re-evaluate on the river. |
What I meant to say was that you should call any river if you are unsure as to what he has. If you know he has a flush, there's no sense in calling, even if he pushes the rest of his $2 stack into a pile of $96.
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