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Better to draw on the turn than the river?

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dalecooper

12-29-2004, 09:52 PM Post subject: Better to draw on the turn than the river?

#1 (permalink)

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Posts: 3,107

I see a lot of players call a (smaller) pot-sized bet on the flop, then fold it on the turn to a (larger) pot-sized bet when they obviously missed their draw. I used to think this was silly; if you understand pot odds, both calls are basically the same - assuming you're really just paying for the next card out. The only variable would be if you think for some reason your opponent will bet smaller, or even check, on the turn instead of betting pot-sized again. That might mitigate calling the flop bet because you think you'll get two cards for a sort of discount. Otherwise, it's silly - right?

Maybe not. One other variable I just realized was that in trying to come up with implied odds, if you go on to hit the draw on the turn you've got two more rounds of betting to finesse money out of your opponent. In other words you call one pot-sized bet, then when it hits you have two rounds to make money on it; if it doesn't hit you can fold it. This is especially true in limit and pot-limit hold 'em (where you need the rounds to build the pot up); against aggressive opponents who will bet their top pair/top kicker or two pair all the way down regardless of the board; and when your draw isn't obvious (flush draws are usually obvious, many straight draws are not).

Sample hand from today: I had KQo and the flop came JTx. My opponent bet pot-sized; I was next to act with a couple players still behind me. I called hoping for some other action to give me better pot odds, but got none. Luckily an ace dropped on the turn. Opponent bet pot-sized, I called. River was a blank; he bet again, I raised all-in and he called.

In sum my profit on this hand was huge once I made my straight. Knowing he had a decent hand and knowing he was an aggressive bettor, I passively called to the river and then raised, getting the call I wanted for all the money I had. He complained (naturally) about my call on the flop with just a draw, but how can you complain when you so insistently pay the player off once he makes that draw? He gave me the implied odds I figured were there.

In short - I wouldn't usually make this play, calling a pot-sized bet with just a straight draw. But against this type of player, with a somewhat disguised draw, I would happily do it again and again. That 4:1 shot on the flop call paid off more than enough (considering my call was <$3.00, and the eventual pot was somewhere around $50).

Food for thought.

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TylerK

12-29-2004, 10:05 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Join Date: Oct 2004

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Posts: 1,791

Nice post Dale. This has been on my mind lately as well. Check out this HH, where I made a flop call (actually 2 calls) that I wouldn't normally make because of what you're describing. I had to put in $5.50 on the flop to win an eventual $75 pot. (Though the size of the final pot justified my call, I really had expected SdBass to come along for the ride as well.)
CARDSON
***** Hand History for Game 1352862714 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Monday, December 27, 00:49:31 EDT 2004
Table Table 11292 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: italian2 ( $14.7 )
Seat 3: maria_2 ( $45.9 )
Seat 4: GMUplayer85 ( $16.05 )
Seat 5: oaklandAs ( $17.9 )
Seat 6: BdBtbyDdMny ( $24.8 )
Seat 8: decoyjg ( $32.65 )
Seat 9: SdBass ( $127.65 )
Seat 10: TylerK_ ( $34.9 )
Seat 7: jhhur ( $27.4 )
Seat 2: Ashchan ( $24.5 )
italian2 posts small blind [$0.25].
Ashchan posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TylerK_ [ 6s 5s ]
maria_2 folds.
GMUplayer85 folds.
TylerK_: wtf just happened? LOL
oaklandAs folds.
BdBtbyDdMny calls [$0.5].
jhhur calls [$0.5].
decoyjg calls [$0.5].
SdBass calls [$0.5].
TylerK_ calls [$0.5].
italian2 folds.
Ashchan checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4s, 7h, Js ]
Ashchan checks.
BdBtbyDdMny checks.
jhhur checks.
decoyjg bets [$0.5].
SdBass raises [$3].
TylerK_ calls [$3].
Ashchan folds.
BdBtbyDdMny folds.
jhhur folds.
decoyjg raises [$5].
SdBass calls [$2.5].
TylerK_ calls [$2.5].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
decoyjg bets [$3].
SdBass calls [$3].
TylerK_ is all-In.
decoyjg is all-In.
GMUplayer85: hit a set decoy??
SdBass folds.
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
decoyjg shows [ Qd, Qh ] two pairs, queens and jacks.
TylerK_ shows [ 6s, 5s ] a straight, three to seven.
TylerK_ wins $2.25 from side pot #1 with a straight, three to seven.
TylerK_ wins $73.05 from the main pot with a straight, three to seven.

TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol

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Better to draw on the turn than the river?

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