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jmontis
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03-07-2005, 04:20 AM
Post subject: bet into open end straight flush draw?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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For limit there's an obvious answer, but i was just in an interesting situation.
.10/.20 NL cash game, guy raised it to $1 preflop, so i called with   in late position.
flop came   
I knew one guy had AA, and one other maybe AQ/AK. Long story short, i missed completely, but I felt I played my draw correctly by betting into it. If i hit the straight or the flush I would have taken both guys stacks without question, they would not lay their hands down. Anyway, thoughts?
They didn't do any heavy betting until the river. So I lost $6 for what could have been an $80+ pot, so i don't think i played it wrong.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Weren't they betting for you? You've got just under a 30% chance of making this at the turn & river (taken separately). Almost any flop bet is callable, obviously.
If you're going to bet, you either want it to be less than the odds of you catching say 1/2 pot on the flop and 1/3 on the turn, or you just want to push and rely on the "it'll come more than half the time" odds.
I probably wouldn't do either and would just call it, since (as you said) they aren't laying their hands down. This way if you do miss completely it only costs as much as the bets you called, instead of costing more. If you might have been able to bluff them out, that could be a different story though.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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I only bet on the flop because it was pretty obvious they weren't going anywhere, regardless.
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AllinLife
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 530
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more info please
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"Is there any chance I'm going to lay this 9-high baby down? That's really not my style."
- Gus Hansen
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Fold preflop, bet/raise/cap the flop. Slow down the turn, fold the river.
Standard flush/straight betting when you arent HU.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Fold preflop, bet/raise/cap the flop. Slow down the turn, fold the river.
Standard flush/straight betting when you arent HU.
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Can we try again, this time for NL?
I gave it my best shot, but I didn't know for sure. I'm expecting you do.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Fold preflop, bet/raise/cap the flop. Slow down the turn, fold the river.
Standard flush/straight betting when you arent HU.
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Can we try again, this time for NL?
I gave it my best shot, but I didn't know for sure. I'm expecting you do. |
ya thats what made it tricky, i know how to play this in limit, but NL,.. it seemed like a money maker situation, i just happened to miss my hand.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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I'd be willing to go all in on the flop with this draw, especially in a ring game. With 15 outs, you are more than a 75% favorite to win (I dont really know the exact percentage, i just know its HUGE). I'd say you should be the one betting here, trying to build the pot and mask your draw. Bet anywhere from 1/2 the pot to a full pot if you think you'll get callers. If raised all in, its an EASY call. I'll go all in on this hand on the flop every day and twice on sundays.
Once the turn hits you have to slow down, if it were up to me I wouldnt give them the opportunity to force me to do anything, I would be all in on the flop.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'd be willing to go all in on the flop with this draw, especially in a ring game. With 15 outs, you are more than a 75% favorite to win (I dont really know the exact percentage, i just know its HUGE). I'd say you should be the one betting here, trying to build the pot and mask your draw. Bet anywhere from 1/2 the pot to a full pot if you think you'll get callers. If raised all in, its an EASY call. I'll go all in on this hand on the flop every day and twice on sundays.
Once the turn hits you have to slow down, if it were up to me I wouldnt give them the opportunity to force me to do anything, I would be all in on the flop.
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ya, it was just a tough break. I'd lose $6 on a open ended straight flush draw any day, for a chance to take 2 guys entire stacks?
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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just to reiterate, bet/raise/reraise/push the flop every time
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
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Boboar
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 8
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I'm not so sure you should call all-in on that flop. If someone goes all in before you, it might come down to pot odds. Let's say the guy has a higher diamond than you or maybe trips, that reduces your chance of winning significantly and those are two hands he just may push with. Also, beware that his AK or AQ is not suited in diamonds, because then you're really in rough shape. The strength of pushing in this situation is that your opponent may fold, but if he calls you are LIKELY the favorite to win. To call all-in on this play could be a disaster and IMO is a little reckless. The main difference in NLHE from Limit is that you have the ability to make an opponent call you for all his chips. That is the big advantage in pushing the OESD w/FD. I would push on that flop, but I probably wouldn't call (all-in).
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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If you're going to play hands like this, this is exactly the flop you're looking for, and yes, you need to see all 5 cards one way or another. I try to complete the hand as cheaply as possible, but if both players go all-in on the flop there's not a chance that I'm folding this.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'd be willing to go all in on the flop with this draw, especially in a ring game. With 15 outs, you are more than a 75% favorite to win (I dont really know the exact percentage, i just know its HUGE).
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It's 57% vs. AA and AK, assuming neither player has a diamond - drops somewhat if they do. You're the favorite but not a heavy favorite. However, in a three-way pot like that I'd be willing to push all in and hope they call, and then hope to hit.
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{This post has been removed}
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
Jeffrey you are mistaken on your estimate of the odds in this situation
assuming his opponent was on pocket Aces he is a FAVORITE on the flop to win this hand
with your opponent on pocket Aces versus an open ended straight flush draw...the numbers are 56% for the draw to 44% for the overpair
normally I check my draws but this hand is strong enough to be betting into with so many outs IMO
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Note that I was discussing each taken separately as being approximately 30%. Taken together that would be about 60%, which is why I said pushing would be an option. So I was off by 4%. That a big deal?
What I mentioned was that since he can rely on them to stay in the hand either way, he might as well draw for as cheap as possible. If the players are going to lay down their hands, it's different, but if they are certain to call when he makes his hand, why not limit the cost of not making it?
- Jeffrey
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Boboar
Let's say the guy has a higher diamond than you or maybe trips, that reduces your chance of winning significantly and those are two hands he just may push with....The strength of pushing in this situation is that your opponent may fold, but if he calls you are LIKELY the favorite to win...
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Trips have very little effect on your chances to win. You'd have to get two running cards to make trips or two pair. I don't think anyone was counting this in their estimation of winning the hand. Sure, trips give the over-holding outs to draw against you if you make it, but I'd (lazily since I don't want to do the math) expect they're about balanced with the runner runner chances you have if he doesn't have the trips. If you're the likely favorite, you can call an all-in. Simple as that.
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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Yes it is a big deal jeffrey if that is how you are calculating your odds because you cant just add them together. Take the chances of not making your draws on each street and multiply them to get your odds of completeing by the river, or in terms of going all in.
If this were yur theory, if there were 3 cards to come instead of 2 then you would have a 90% chance and if there were 4 cards or more to come then yu would be gauranteed of making your draw. Of course there is never 3, 4, or 5 cards to come after the flop in hold em, but i hope you see the theory.
Talk to demiparadigm he is the odds master from what i can tell.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
Yes it is a big deal jeffrey if that is how you are calculating your odds...
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I was doing very few if any calculations in either post - just approximations. The point I was trying to make was that by going all-in on the flop, you're forced to put in your chips on a probable win whereas if you wait and see if your very likely draw does or doesn't come, you can save money the times that it doesn't. Again, this is assuming the opponents will stay in no matter what.
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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Then maybe it would be a good idea tp try to have 2/3 of your opponent's stack in by the turn opposed to going all in. This makes your opponent pot commited so if you make your draw, you can push, and expect a call, and you can fold if you miss your draw, saving you 1/3 of his stack. This bet probobly has the same chances of taking down the pot without a showdown as ppushing would too.
You probobly wont be able to do this often, and i wouldn't do it myself, but it seems like a better choice than moving in.
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