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Bet here or take the free card?

  
 
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-02-2008, 10:23 PM     Post subject: Bet here or take the free card? #1 (permalink)  
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Villain had been a little weak, calling with a lot of hands, opening a few, but rarely continuing unless they had hit the flop in some fashion.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1.42)
SB ($3.08)
BB ($2.96)
UTG ($1.10)
UTG+1 ($5.75)
Hero (MP1) ($1.89)
MP2 ($0.84)
MP3 ($2.94)
CO ($4.58)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, 10
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 7 folds

Flop: ($0.25) Q, 4, J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.20, UTG+1 calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.65) 9 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ?

Arguments for and against betting?

Since I picked up a nine on the turn, I was looking at a double gutshot and a nut flush draw. 9 flush outs+4 untainted straight draw outs.

Villain's range:
77+, A10+, QJ+

He didn't seem like a slowplayer, so it was unlikely he was check-calling a set or an overpair. He overbet a few hands earlier in the session and had gotten some dumb callers.
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-02-2008, 10:26 PM #2 (permalink)  
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What do you think about the river? How big of a value bet are you making here?

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, 10
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 7 folds

Flop: ($0.25) Q, 4, J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.20, UTG+1 calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.65) 9 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.65) 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets ?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-02-2008, 10:26 PM #3 (permalink)  
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oooo

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-02-2008, 10:28 PM #4 (permalink)  
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with a check behind, I would bet .45 on that river. Or some other bet in line with my overall style. Kinda tough to say without knowing how you had been betting at the table.

Turn decision is fun though, i wanna see what other people say

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-02-2008, 11:17 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I had been pretty quiet and hadn't been involved in a hand since I had three-bet someone three or four orbits ago. I don't know if anyone had been noticing, but my image was probably pretty nitty at that point.
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Illfavor
Old 12-02-2008, 11:36 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Why are two of the straight outs tainted?

I can't use the stove, but we probably have around 40% equity on the turn against the range you presented. Next comes a big problem in my poker playing: what to do with that information. How likely is he to fold to a good-sized bet? I'd probably just take my card, but I is donk.
Ich grolle nicht...
 
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-02-2008, 11:48 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Why are two of the straight outs tainted?
The K of spades and 8 of spades complete a spade flush.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-03-2008, 12:25 AM #8 (permalink)  
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which you shouldn't be overly concerned with

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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oskar
Old 12-03-2008, 12:51 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 On the turn you could have as much as 18 outs. I would definitely double-barrel there and try to get a weak pair to fold. - if he shoves you have to call.
Checking when you can get a free card isn't so bad of course. Which line is better heavily depends on reads. If you have a reason to believe he's trapping you, then by all means draw out on that sucker. If he's raising weak hands preflop from UTG - Which I guess you assume since you called with the ATs - Then I would try to get him off whatever garbage hand he's holding.
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Parasurama
Old 12-03-2008, 01:26 AM #10 (permalink)  
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With this many outs to make very strong hands, I think we have to bet the turn in order to get some value if we hit on the river.
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jyms
Old 12-03-2008, 02:09 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 You have to bet the turn. You have a thousand fucken outs and you bet all your made hands on the turn, so bet the fucken turn.
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kmind
Old 12-03-2008, 02:12 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jyms
You have to bet the turn. You have a thousand fucken outs and you bet all your made hands on the turn, so bet the fucken turn.
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Illfavor
Old 12-03-2008, 02:16 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 Are we still betting the turn if it's a 2s, or some other blank?
Ich grolle nicht...
 
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jyms
Old 12-03-2008, 02:50 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Are we still betting the turn if it's a 2s, or some other blank?
Are you betting the turn with TPTK??
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Illfavor
Old 12-03-2008, 03:25 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jyms
Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Are we still betting the turn if it's a 2s, or some other blank?
Are you betting the turn with TPTK??
Yea usually, but I was just trying to qualify the range of drawing hands that we can bet this turn with. Like if we had something like 8c7c, or KT (and the turn was a blank), should would we be betting our 8-10 out draws like TPTK or take our free card?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-03-2008, 03:31 AM #16 (permalink)  
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I think betting is the clear choice, but my gut reaction was a temptation to check but only based on how my games have been playing lately.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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crazyasian
Old 12-03-2008, 03:50 AM #17 (permalink)  

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bet the turn, check fold the river if you miss. A calling station isnt gonna fold any pair by the river, no matter what.
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IhaveTopTop
Old 12-03-2008, 04:00 AM     Post subject: Re: Bet here or take the free card? #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Arguments for and against betting?

He didn't seem like a slowplayer, so it was unlikely he was check-calling a set or an overpair.
I think you have to bet here with a ton of outs.

Obviously you could take it down here or you build a pot so maybe you win a nice pot if one of your outs comes.
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IhaveTopTop
Old 12-03-2008, 04:05 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
I had been pretty quiet and hadn't been involved in a hand since I had three-bet someone three or four orbits ago. I don't know if anyone had been noticing, but my image was probably pretty nitty at that point.
Can't argue with a500lbgorilla's suggestion of ~2/3 the pot here. Although, depending on how much your opponent likes to call, maybe as little as half the pot since your checking behind on the turn then betting the flush card could scare off a lot of people.
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crazyasian
Old 12-04-2008, 07:44 PM #20 (permalink)  

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I would bet 3/4 of the pot on the turn, value bet the river (maybe half pot).

If hes check calling the flop and river, im putting him on a draw or a weak pair, both of which you beat by the river. try to get small value.
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bigspenda73
Old 12-04-2008, 08:34 PM #21 (permalink)  
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 I bet here, not saying it's necessarily the best play at this level but if you have any fold equity at all it becomes the best play by far. Also, he could have worse draws that we won't get any value from on a bricked river.

Build the pot, you're rarely getting c/r'ed AI and if you do who care, we have like 33-40% equity.
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