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StevenCJames
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05-28-2009, 03:55 PM
Post subject: best hand percentage?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2009
Location: CT
Posts: 12
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How do you figure out the percentage for best hand.
For instance when you're watching poker on tv and one person has AK and the other has 77 and they say that the 77 hand is %57 and the AK is %45 or something like that.
How do you figure out those percentages.
I understand pot odds and the rule of 4 and 2 to figure the odds of making your hand, but I don't understand the math behind which hand is most likely to win.
Thanks.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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www.pokerstove.com
tell your friends!
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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pokerstove is perhaps the easiest way to calculate these, but if you're looking for the actual mathematical formula to use then hope you have alot of time on your hands.
For a simple case, lets say we have KK, and our opponent has AA. Lets also say that we have a board of 2s8cTh4d. What percent of the time will KK win the hand? Well, our rule of 2 says that we have about a 4% chance of hitting a K...why?
There are 44 cards left in the deck, and 2 of them are kings. To win, we need to hit one. Expressed in choose notation, the probability we win is
2 choose 1 / 44 choose 1
or the chance we hit over the total number. With only 1 card to come, this simplifies to 2/44 = 1/22 = 4.5%. Pokerstove gives the same value.
Ok, now suppose the board is instead 2s8cTh, now what is our percent chance to win? Rule of 4 says about 8%. Why?
still 2 kings, but since there are now two cards we have to consider a bunch of different scenarios. I picked a board that makes straights and flushes impossible since they are a bit more complicated to figure out, if your interested i challenge you to figure that out  .
Right, so a bunch of different scenarios. The combos of turn and rivers we have are
KK
K-, KA
--
where a dash represents neither a k or A hitting. We have to consider the case where an A hits and a King hits due to that actually being a loss. Ok, so now how often does each thing happen? Since there are no flushes or straights, we can ignore -- and KA as we are only interested in the percent chance we win.
First case: 2 kings, we want both and two cards to come. 7 cards are known, 45 left in the deck.
2 c 2 / 45 c 2 = 1/990 = .0010 = .1%
Second case: 2 kings, want 1, 41 cards thar arent kings or aces
2c1*41c1 / 45c2 = 82/990 = .0828 = 8.28%
In all other scenarios, we lose. Sum it up
.1% + 8.28% = 8.29% chance KK will beat AA with a board of 2s8cTh. Pokerstove says 8.3%. Figuring out preflop percentages work out in a similar fashion, but there are alot more possible scenarios including those with straights and flushes so it gets a bit messy. That is the math that goes on to determine % chance to win against a single hand. As you can see though, its virtually impossible to do this kind of thing correctly at the table, so pokerstove is awesome.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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adam.poker
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Join Date: May 2009
Location: US
Posts: 18
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really i never thought of it....
how do we calculate.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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is that a question?
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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Stacks
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05-28-2009, 08:47 PM
Post subject: Re: best hand percentage?
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#6 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by StevenCJames
one person has AK and the other has 77 and they say that the 77 hand is %57 and the AK is %45 or something like that.
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When I'm playing my equity and villains equity always equals 100%.. Never been lucky enough to add up to 102%... Am I missing out on EV?
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by adam.poker
really i never thought of it....
how do we calculate.
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GTFO. i did not just type this huge ass response to have someone ask that question again.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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xpaand
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05-28-2009, 09:33 PM
Post subject: Re: best hand percentage?
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#8 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Quote:
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Originally Posted by StevenCJames
one person has AK and the other has 77 and they say that the 77 hand is %57 and the AK is %45 or something like that.
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When I'm playing my equity and villains equity always equals 100%.. Never been lucky enough to add up to 102%... Am I missing out on EV? |
Stacks man. What's the matter with you. How could you not capitalize on that 2%? Didn't you know that poker is a long-term game? 2% is a lot in the long run. Geez. Last time I listen to you for poker knowledge.
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OP: Beginner to Master
If I bet as a bluff, I should be thinking "am I getting better hands to fold? Is it likely that he will fold x% of the time to a y sized bet to make it +EV?". If I bet for value, I should be thinking "am I getting worst hands to call? Am I ahead of enough of his range that this is a good value bet?".
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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JKDS, this just in, he's a freetroll spammer
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JKDS
Quote:
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Originally Posted by adam.poker
really i never thought of it....
how do we calculate.
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GTFO. i did not just type this huge ass response to have someone ask that question again. |
Know you know how many of us feel with our long responses.
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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You consider all of the possible combinations of communities. The percentage of communities won by one hand is that hand's percentage to win.
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 701
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Luck media 33%
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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