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FateAver
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06-14-2009, 04:16 AM
Post subject: Believing in flow of the game?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pokerstars
Posts: 37
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This topic , it's seem illogical in reality
but sometimes I feel like if I can winplay with any kinds of hand
and make some streaks win in the meantime
for example :
1st game : got AQ result = normally win some pots
2nd game : got 88 flop = 8 4 3
3rd game : got 72 off suited ! someone raising I fold and flop = 7 7 10 , turn = another 7 !!
on the other hand when other players get on to something like this
although I got premium hands like AA , AK , KK , QQ , I will lost to this guy anyways.. I should stop for a while until the flow that favour him had been stop
Sometimes the card going on like for one seat around 5-6 games
Edit : Sorry if this topic seem stupid or posting in wrong group
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JR9477
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06-14-2009, 04:26 AM
Post subject: Re: Believing in flow of the game?
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#2 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 426
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by FateAver
got 72 off suited ! someone raising I fold
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Good job, way to go, keep it up
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(Josh)
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Do you believe in magic?
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Do you believe in magic?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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This isn't game flow, this is variance. Thread needs to be renamed.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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Hot streaks are real, but for another reason than luck or variance. Its all about the shifting of general Fold Equity. With several good hands in a row, assuming you win without showdown, your Fold Equity plummets and therefore you get paid big when you have Equity advantage.
Same goes for dry runs (not getting cards, not hitting flops) and your general Fold Equity rises. This allows for a fake streak without getting cards.
When you understand the dynamics of general Fold Equity you can create profitable situations no matter what cards you are dealt.
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sir Pawnalot
Hot streaks are real, but for another reason than luck or variance. Its all about the shifting of general Fold Equity. With several good hands in a row, assuming you win without showdown, your Fold Equity plummets and therefore you get paid big when you have Equity advantage.
Same goes for dry runs (not getting cards, not hitting flops) and your general Fold Equity rises. This allows for a fake streak without getting cards.
When you understand the dynamics of general Fold Equity you can create profitable situations no matter what cards you are dealt.
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Everything I've bolded here, while not always true, is a direct byproduct of variance when it is true.
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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True, we exploit the variance- instead of being victimized by it.
Ofcourse this is not true versus mass multitablers and people not able to adjust.
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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FateAver
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Pokerstars
Posts: 37
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wow and there's 1 vote for choice 1 ! (not me because i vote for choice 3 lol)
and thank you for some good and useful response
btw. lol at YugiOH I like this anime too...
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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I voted 3 too, but that is because I do not know what flow is in regards to poker.
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sir Pawnalot
True, we exploit the variance- instead of being victimized by it.
Ofcourse this is not true versus mass multitablers and people not able to adjust.
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I'd rather think of it as exploiting peoples reactions (or lack of) to things like us raising 6 hands in a row.
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DaGrinch
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Whoville
Posts: 26
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Sure I believe in it ... but why does it only happen AGAINST me?
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Sir Pawnalot
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norway
Posts: 668
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Ok, so you think of variance as variation of our Expected Value- either positive or negative.
There are other kinds of variance too, but maybe you call it something differently. Like variance in cards being dealt (going three days without getting aces, or getting aces three times in a row).
Thanks really, ppl often get pissed when I confuse the terms like I often do.
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A foolish man learns nothing from his mistakes.
A smart man learns only from his own mistakes.
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, and those of the smart man and the fool.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sir Pawnalot
Ok, so you think of variance as variation of our Expected Value- either positive or negative.
There are other kinds of variance too, but maybe you call it something differently. Like variance in cards being dealt (going three days without getting aces, or getting aces three times in a row).
Thanks really, ppl often get pissed when I confuse the terms like I often do.
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Variance (via standard deviation) is basically the difference between how often something happens over a sample and how often it would really happen on average, so you're right, all of those things are examples of variance.
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