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bad beats and variance. Need some advice please!!

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rmariani

02-16-2005, 09:48 AM Post subject: bad beats and variance. Need some advice please!!

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 117

Hello everyone

I'm trying to take this lightly, as I've been playing for a very limited time (1-2 months), and of course I am a bad player! I can't pretend to understand even the basics of poker and I have many flaws identified leaks and most important, unidentinfied leaks.
Even with my limitations I've been praticing, reading and even winning some money until last night! My last 5 days are: +35,+63.75,+25.62,+7.61,-110.48.

I'm still positive (not by much though :P) and my main goal in this phase is not to make money (although I don't mind it, of course

) but to learn and understant my flaws and correct them.
The thing is: I don't know what I did wrong. I may have overplayed a couple of hands due to the lack of quality hands that lead to some loosiness, but nothing that justifies such losses. I've also tracked "money lost by stupidity" in the last 4 days (31,7,10,34). It's strange that the day where I won more money I have the same "stupidity level" as the day I lost more

.
I lost with AK to a set of 7s, with KJ to AJ (wich is normal but still hurts), and all kinds of strange things. I know I will not win all the hands I play, even if I do a carefull hand selection, but yesterday I might have lost 99% of the hands I played! So, to "help" the lack of hands I even had the lack of "luck" on the good hands I had, loosing countless times on the river to lesser hands.

Anyway, my point, and my questions are:
Is this variance aceptable or should I associate it with my lack of skill?
It's normal to fold 30-40 hands in a row with the best one being Q8 unsuited?
When I'm in a bad day should I stop and do something else or pursuit my losses?
It's normal to have all your hands beaten on the river on a bad day? Could this be because I chased my losses a bit too much?

Thx for the help!
I really need some today

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LeFou

02-16-2005, 11:47 AM Post subject: Re: bad beats and variance. Need some advice please!!

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas, TX

Posts: 2,361

I'm going to sound like I'm all up in your face criticizing, but there are a number of things in this post that are exemplary of beginners, and I think a lot of people could learn from a close examination. This is a fisk out of love.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

I don't know what I did wrong. I may have overplayed a couple of hands due to the lack of quality hands that lead to some loosiness

A lack of quality hands does not lead to looseness. Your decision to start playing loose leads to looseness. Don't make that decision.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

, but nothing that justifies such losses. I've also tracked "money lost by stupidity" in the last 4 days (31,7,10,34). It's strange that the day where I won more money I have the same "stupidity level" as the day I lost more

I don't really like this. Yes, you make some bad plays and you should correct the mistakes in your play, but a "stupidity tracker" is just beating yourself up over it. Don't jot down the amount you lost; jot down the play and maybe ategorize the mistake. If you keep finding notes that say e.g. "chased straight w/3 suited" then those are the big leaks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

I lost with AK to a set of 7s, with KJ to AJ (wich is normal but still hurts), and all kinds of strange things. I know I will not win all the hands I play, even if I do a carefull hand selection, but yesterday I might have lost 99% of the hands I played!

Ick. That's bad indeed. When you lose 30BB shut 'er down, take a walk, get a coffee, whatever. Come back later. You witnessed the snowball effect here.

>Is this variance aceptable or should I associate it with my lack of skill?
Acceptable. Note your gains still outweighed your losses for the last 5 days. For a beginner, that's just fine.
>It's normal to fold 30-40 hands in a row with the best one being Q8 unsuited?
No. But not everything that happens is normal.
>When I'm in a bad day should I stop and do something else or pursuit my losses?
See above.
>It's normal to have all your hands beaten on the river on a bad day? Could this be because I chased my losses a bit too much?
Snowball.

rmariani

02-16-2005, 12:44 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 117

By all means

kick me in the head!
lol

1st let me thank you for the good advice.

Regarding the "stupidity tracker", I do it so that when the situations presents themselfs in front of me, waiting for the mistake, I am aware of the consequences. Sometines I think "It's just 1 bb, or 2, why not call? Maybe may low pair wins!!!" and I need to create in myself the discipline to understand that even if in some situations I win a "stupid" hand, in the long run I will loose money by not folding correctly. 90%+ of that money comes from calling when I should fold.

The 30bb limit sounds like a good frontier. I will try not to go beyound that line from now on. Stangely I am much more rational when I'm winning, as I can say to my self: "You did good. Stop now, because chances are things will get worst", but in a loosing streak I tend to contribute to the snowball efect you described.

Once again, thnaks for the tips. I guesss my main problem, and I could correctly guess, the problem of many beginners os being to emotional in the game!

JeffreyGB

02-16-2005, 01:47 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: Jenks, OK

Posts: 3,477

Whenever I start to feel like I'm not getting enough hands and need to play more, I remember a few numbers that ilikeaces posted:

Profit: $16,000
VP$IP: 16%

So he's made $16k playing 1.5 hands per orbit. During streaks of bad cards, I could easily see that meaning that he's not playing anything but the blinds for a couple of orbits (haven't seen him play, just speculation). It's rare that I go more than a couple of orbits without a single limp-worthy (or better) hand, so I just remember that's all I really necessarily should get from these numbers.

- Jeffrey

I run a training site...

Check out strategy videos at GrinderSchool.com, from $10 / month.

LeFou

02-16-2005, 01:49 PM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas, TX

Posts: 2,361

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

I am much more rational when I'm winning, as I can say to my self: "You did good. Stop now, because chances are things will get worst",

This actually isn't all that rational. I understand a bit of timidty when you're green, but you've got to try to stop expecting the worst. Keep studying, play correctly in the situations you know pretty well, and with some experience your thoughts will be more like:

"You're doing good. Keep going, because chances are you'll continue to make $$ at this table."

Have you considered LHE, by the way? It's an excellent way to get experience and develop discipline without too much emotion getting in the way.

rmariani

02-16-2005, 02:15 PM

#6 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 117

ACtually I DO play LHE

My problem with emotions is not connected with the amounts involved.
hell... I hate to loose even when there's no money.

Fnord

02-16-2005, 03:43 PM Post subject: Re: bad beats and variance. Need some advice please!!

#7 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

Is this variance aceptable or should I associate it with my lack of skill?

It happens.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

It's normal to fold 30-40 hands in a row with the best one being Q8 unsuited?

It happens, fire up some more tables and you won't notice as much.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

When I'm in a bad day should I stop and do something else or pursuit my losses?

If the game is good and your head is clear, PLAY!

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

It's normal to have all your hands beaten on the river on a bad day?

It happens.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

Could this be because I chased my losses a bit too much?

Maybe.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

rmariani

02-17-2005, 09:46 AM

#8 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 117

OMG!!!!
I instaled PT yesterday and imported my hand history.
I have a MAJOR leak. I'm still digesting it:

of the ~100$ I lost, 70 were in the BB and 20 in the SB.
How can I be so stupid?
I must have been playing week pairs, drawing or dominated hands from the blinds positions, and I did not even noticed it.
I did not analyze what hands I played, but I will surely do it.

At least now I can see a reason for the problem, and I can act acordingly trying to fix it.

I want to thank you guys for all the excelent advice.
I'll post a hand detail if I can find any patern.

rmariani

02-17-2005, 11:20 AM

#9 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 117

-86$ from the BB:
I know it looks like bad hands almost all of them, but anyone care to coment?

83o -21
K8s -9
A6o -7
ATo -7
Q8o -6
T7o -4
22 -3
52o -3
84o -3
K7o -3
43o -2
65o -2
92o -2
96s -2
J5s -2
J6o -2
K3o -2
KJs -2
Q9o -2
T8o -2

Humphrind

02-17-2005, 08:00 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2004

Location: Kansas City

Posts: 1,887

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmariani

83o -21

I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.

gabe

02-17-2005, 11:40 PM

#11 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: trying to live

Posts: 7,964

gabe is an unknown quantity at this point

you are supposed to be losing money from the SB and BB, because you have to pay the blinds

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