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Awkward river spot with KQ.

  
 
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Carroters
Old 09-27-2009, 04:11 PM     Post subject: Awkward river spot with KQ. #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is unknown and hasn't been active over 15 hands. The BU is a total fish, so it's possible his range can be wider than usual preflop.

I'm happy with the hand up until the river, but thatJ pretty much improves the only hand I can expect value from if I put out a smallish blocking bet. I don't like c/c the river because all I can hope to snap off are bluffs from missed draws and I've no idea if he bluffs them here, given my range looking quite strong up until now.

I think c/f river is best.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($33.65)
Hero (SB) ($27.50)
BB ($25.15)
UTG ($25)
MP ($26.25)
CO ($25.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q
3 folds, Button calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.15, BB calls $1, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.75) 5, K, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.20, BB calls $2.20

Turn: ($7.15) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

River: ($16.15) J (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero?

 
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surviva316
Old 09-27-2009, 04:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 i really really dislike turn bet sizing. like half the deck is a scare card for you and there are some disaster cards in there like the Jd.

blocking bet kinda seems like a wast of money 'cause he doesn't have a very wide B-rang--errr-- wide range that's trying to get to show down. i think c/f's fine.

btw, the diamond doesn't hurt us too bad because floating still isn't the cool thing to do at 25nl, so we can assume an unknown isn't gonna call flop with a BDFD.
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Ash256
Old 09-27-2009, 04:24 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I hate spots like this.

How is the bet/check/bet line normally interpreted in your games?
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Outlaw
Old 09-27-2009, 04:29 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I think checking the river is a mistake as played, but I'd consider checking the flop if I were you. Against his range there aren't many cards that will let him catch up and you can control the pot this way.

Check/calling is sometimes a lot more profitable than just firing 3 streets.

This is a good example of why oop sucks so hard.
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daven
Old 09-27-2009, 05:00 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 bet turn bigger
as played i like block-fold
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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Carroters
Old 09-27-2009, 05:26 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Reason I bet smallish on the turn was because I thought his range was wieghted quite a bit towards medium pps that I didn't want to fold out.

Daven - I don't get what we'd be trying to get called by if we block the river? I did actually end up betting $7.50 but rendered it rash and not good afterwards.

Outlaw - I feel your c/c idea really sucks ass against someone we don't even know to be aggressive or bluffy. We just essentially fail to get value from underpairs and flush draws which make up the bulk of his continuing range on the flop. So yeah I really hate checking this flop.

While It seems good intuitively to bet turn large here, I just feel as though we're skewing his range to be a lot stronger if he calls and think we're folding out 99, JJ etc although this may not neccessarily be the case. I think our equity is better overall by betting smaller assuming he folds these hands to a bigger bet. I'm probably wrong about that though. I feel if we bet big and are called, it also limits our options and makes the river fucking horrible because we have no room for a blocking bet.

Ash - Bet/check/bet is often looked up lightly and viewed as bluffy by the fish in these games. I suppose it has some merit here since we're perhaps more likely imo to get value from his underpairs on the flop + river than the flop + turn.

 
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clvacva
Old 09-27-2009, 05:36 PM #7 (permalink)  
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K9+,55-TT,8x,67 and flush draws.

On the turn we can expect a lot a raise with a set so his calling range is K9+,99,TT and clubs maybe still some A8,87 hands.

River like you stated not sure if he bets his missed flush draws, he will still call with K9,KT,99,TT and if he had a hand like AJ,JT,J9(clubs) there gonna probably call too.

I bet like 7ish on the river
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ihategnomes
Old 09-27-2009, 05:48 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I think we are over-estimating the buttons open limping range.
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surviva316
Old 09-27-2009, 05:56 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 lol my analysis blows.

for whatever reason, i thought that villain was an unknown reg, but reread HH and taht's not the case. in fact he's prolly terrible and prolly has like K9o. so DEF bet turn bigger because he like 100 more combo's of weak kings and FD's that snap call any sized bet on the turn, than there are 99-JJ. plus protection's starting to outweigh value here.

also, this realization makes a blocking bet much more reasonable, and he'll call with K9o, and won't often raise as a bluff
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Carroters
Old 09-27-2009, 06:08 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 Even though this is 25NL, the fact that he's not played a hand yet makes me not want to just stick k9o in his range for flatting this 5x iso preflop. I should maybe have mentioned he was like 12/0 or something, but it's pretty irrelevant over 15 hands. However, it does suggest he isn't a 53/4 K9o playing sort of donk.

I'd rather assume it's like KJo+ here, without any further information. KT is possibly in there, but it's like the only hand we can get value from with a block on the river. Or actually who fucking knows, yhis guys unknown, he may well call with 99 or some shit here again.

Moral of the story - being oop vs unknowns in marginal spots sucks ass.

 
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Micro2Macro
Old 09-27-2009, 06:44 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Monsieur_chat
Old 09-27-2009, 07:32 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Ya, checking river just says please take the pot off me now.

I think I bet a tiny bit more, maybe $8.50.

Oh and bet more on turn!
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Outlaw
Old 09-27-2009, 08:40 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carroters
Reason I bet smallish on the turn was because I thought his range was wieghted quite a bit towards medium pps that I didn't want to fold out.

Daven - I don't get what we'd be trying to get called by if we block the river? I did actually end up betting $7.50 but rendered it rash and not good afterwards.

Outlaw - I feel your c/c idea really sucks ass against someone we don't even know to be aggressive or bluffy. We just essentially fail to get value from underpairs and flush draws which make up the bulk of his continuing range on the flop. So yeah I really hate checking this flop.

While It seems good intuitively to bet turn large here, I just feel as though we're skewing his range to be a lot stronger if he calls and think we're folding out 99, JJ etc although this may not neccessarily be the case. I think our equity is better overall by betting smaller assuming he folds these hands to a bigger bet. I'm probably wrong about that though. I feel if we bet big and are called, it also limits our options and makes the river fucking horrible because we have no room for a blocking bet.

Ash - Bet/check/bet is often looked up lightly and viewed as bluffy by the fish in these games. I suppose it has some merit here since we're perhaps more likely imo to get value from his underpairs on the flop + river than the flop + turn.
I like a flop check here to underep our hand/induce bluffs and pot control. Stop worrying too much about value, what good is it when you know don't know if he will commit all of his chips with a hand that you beat? Against an unknown is especially the time to exercise discipline and keep the pot small.

What gets more value from underpairs, repping the king 3 streets or making him believe you don't have a king?

The whole point of our actions is to make the most money and getting all in or nearly all in with such a marginal hand makes baby monkeys cry. Note: With a much lower SPR its an obvious bet-bet
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surviva316
Old 09-27-2009, 08:46 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
Stop worrying too much about value, what good is it when you know don't know if he will commit all of his chips with a hand that you beat?

getting all in or nearly all in with such a marginal hand makes baby monkeys cry.
WE HAVE TP2K AGAINST A WEAK OPPONENT YOU FUCKIN' PUSSY!!!!!! what does he have like K8 or a set everytime here? checking flop is omg wtf most retarded thing ever

btw, if we check the flop for "pot control" then we're only setting ourselves up for even tougher and more marginal decisions because the board's ALWAYS gonna end up bein' ugly by the river and now we're like "ok so NOW how do we get two streets of value out of this"
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ljove
Old 09-27-2009, 09:18 PM #15 (permalink)  
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You placed big raise preflop.
Because of your raise he has AA,AK or pocket pair(maybe KK).After he calls your flop bet I think he has three of a kind or he is loose waiting for flush.
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Micro2Macro
Old 09-27-2009, 09:48 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
I like a flop check here


Quote:
Stop worrying too much about value
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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Carroters
Old 09-27-2009, 10:05 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Use of all knowing lecturing tone to state the above:

 
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oskar
Old 09-27-2009, 11:34 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 I like the turn bet sizing, and I could go even a little smaller. There's not much in his range that can stand 3 barrels. It's mostly small pairs, Ax peeling the flop, but giving up anyway, and fd's.
Without any stats/reads it's kind of hard to make a range, but it's probably something like 22-AA, 45, 56, 67, 78, KT, KJ, KQ, Axs with the nfd, and some random connectors with a fd.
The turn calling range is prolly something like 99, TT, JJ - I'd expect sets and KK, AA to raise at that point, KT, KJ, KQ, flushdraws and 67.
There are less combos of FD's than made hands that you beat - but that will struggle to even call a moderate value bet, some hands that have you beat... and it's not certain that he will try to bluff with missed draws, and it's very rare that micro donks will turn a made hand into a bluff. If they do they're probably not aware that they aren't value betting.

You can play around with the combos, but I think it's a pretty obvious blockbet/fold - you're not getting bluff raised there like ever, but worse hands will call occasionally... c/f is really gay, and c/c seems pretty spewy because someone who limps utg will very likely be very passive post flop.
I wouldn't mind less than half the pot in this particular hand, but I wouldn't make that kind of v-bet sizing a habit. 1/2 pot is fine.

If you find someone who will monkey shove over almost any blockbet (oh hello der ) - make a note!!!
It's rare but... obviously: player notes >>>> anything
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