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!Luck
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08-09-2010, 06:09 PM
Post subject: The average player and flush draws
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Under a bridge
Posts: 1,367
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I was having a conversation with another member of FTR and I told him that the frequency that someone calls a bet with a flush draw barely changes between 70% of pot and 90% of pot. In general, I suspect, poeple make their decision to call a bet in a fairly binary way.
Hand Example:
I have AK on BU, I raise. Flop comes A78 two suites. I suspect that poeple with 9T and JQs, Kxs will call a 70% bet just(or nearly as often) as often as a 90%. At my level on wet boards I bet close to 100% of pot, usually just one increment off the pot like .35 into .37.
Trying to make a pool if you agree with my assertion that poeple call nearly as often with flush draws for a 70% bet as a 90% bet.
I am a bit dumb so I couldn't figure out how to make this a pool.
So let's discuss.
!luck
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supa
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 986
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Agree.
However that's based on my experience being almost completely @ 2nl. Less people are considering pot odds and are making decisions based on the amount of money instead. Alot of the time I find they'll call a 100% pot bet on the flop just to fold to 3/4 pot bet on the turn when they don't hit, which I'm sure is profitable for us.
I would also think that this changes at higher stakes.
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“Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”
Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years
Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
start using your brain more and vagina less
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Icanhastreebet
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: In the big blind, cold calling your opens, making you tilt.
Posts: 994
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People do and they should a lot of the time especially IP.
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Tasha
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Flush
Join Date: May 2010
Location: At the far end of the table
Posts: 262
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They are probably calling more because they don't see the difference than that they think it is a correct call to make.
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,039
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i agree. especially at micros. that's why us fish are encouraged by good players to value bet well and size our vbets well - our opponents usually play their "nut" ranges very predictably and most (especially at 10nl and lower) don't attempt to balance their range when they take "nut" lines with flush draws or whatever. so their typically passive lines make concepts like value betting and learning to bet/fold in apt spots so crucial to our winrates.
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NightGizmo
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Flush
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpm
i agree. especially at micros. that's why us fish are encouraged by good players to value bet well and size our vbets well - our opponents usually play their "nut" ranges very predictably and most (especially at 10nl and lower) don't attempt to balance their range when they take "nut" lines with flush draws or whatever. so their typically passive lines make concepts like value betting and learning to bet/fold in apt spots so crucial to our winrates.
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Are you advocating taking "nut" lines with flush draws occasionally to balance our range against the nut hands we could possibly have? Or are you saying that taking a "nut" line with a flush draw is fishy here?
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,039
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against some of the regs at 10nl i do it and i think it needs to be done vs these players because they can think ranges and tendencies to a certain degree. against a lot of players, especially at 5nl and lower, i think it's not necessary. i think the main point at micros is the learn to exploit your opponents (ie by learning to value bet and bet/fold vs passive/call-happy ranges) than to be overly concerned with preventing them exploiting you (at 10nl and below) because most aren't doing it.
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