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Vi-Zer0Skill

03-19-2007, 10:40 PM Post subject: Attn: Prospective "Professional Poker Players"

#1 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

I like to daydream. I think everyone does. I was walking to class from my house and i began to wonder how much poker i would have to play to make a comfortable living at it. Right now i am gearing up to play the 100NL on FullTilt(just dropped a couple buyins at 100NL (See: BB Forum

), and am comfortably at 100NL on Pokerstars. I knew that with my winrate of 3.17 BB/100 i would only make a small salary if i were to consistently play at that level for a year full time(~$20k). So i decided to see how much i would make if i were to somehow keep a similar winrate at 400NL.

If you were to play 350 hands an hour while running 6 tables for 8 hours a day with a win rate of 1 buy in per day at 400NL, you would make 98k in a year.

400 x 5 x 49 = $98,000

In order to do this, you would play poker for a total of 40 hours a week for 49 weeks. This would total 1960 hours in a year.

40 x 49 = 1960 hours

1960 hours is a lot, and you would have to multiply that by 350 to get 686,000 hands.

1960 x 350 = 686,000 hands

You win rate of $400 every 2800 hands would be (1BB = $4.00)

3.57BB/100 or
($14.85/100) x3.5 = $44.55/hr.

This seems close to an optimal winrate at 400NL
(I'm not a 400NL regular, just my best guess)

Certainly you could live on less than 98k a year, and you could probably play more than 1960 hours in a year if you love poker like me

.

+

This isn't accounting for moving up in stakes.

+

This also isn't accounting for a conceivably higher winrate (if you were a very strong player or continued to improve)

But

Such a winrate (>3.00BB/100) seems as though it would be very difficult to maintain above 400NL (if it is even possible there).

I would be interested in hearing what others think about playing poker professionally (from a financial standpoint). I am also interested in hearing about my hypothetical winrate at 400NL, especially from those who play there regularly.

A Side Note: I am not myself planning on quitting my job today and playing professional poker, but i am thinking about what such a life would be like and deciding whether to postpone finishing college, since poker as a career seems fun right now and i don't see why i couldn't go back to school if playing poker no longer was enjoyable or was entirely removed from the U.S.

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jyms

03-19-2007, 10:49 PM

#2 (permalink)

Tilting Mod

Join Date: Feb 2006

Posts: 4,836

Nobody in their right mind could play 40+ hours a week at any level for one buy in a day. 8 hours of 6 tabling would drive you batty. You need breaks in between. Lets say you play a 4 hour session (huge session by any standards but Renton's), and took a 1 hour break to pee, eat and check FTR. Your 8 hours is now 11 hours. That's a long day.

I know your just crunching numbers, but there needs to be some realism to those numbers.

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zook

03-19-2007, 11:42 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Posts: 3,676

I think your goal of 3.5bb/100 is a little low. From what I've read, I think 3ptbb/100 (6bb/100) is achievable at 400NL long-term. I can't say that from experience though

I just moved up to 400NL and while it's a lot tougher than 200NL and harder to find donators, it isn't horrible.

I agree with TJ that 40 hours/week is a bit ambitious. Sure there are guys on 2+2 who play almost 100k hands a month, but that would be a surefire road to burnout for most people. I think 30 hours, maybe 35, is more realistic, esp if you plan on taking a couple of days off a week.

So my revised calculations would be:

6bb/100 hands x $4 bb / 100 = $0.24/hand
$0.24/hand x 350 hands/hour x 30 hours/week x 44 weeks/year = $110,880

Not bad. Anyone think this is ludicrous? I've been running good the last few months, so my perspective could be very skewed.

sejje

03-20-2007, 12:19 AM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

I think that for most people who don't need a huge income playing poker for a living would be very easily managed if they could put in the hours.

I personally could live on my past winrates at 25NL, and would make far more in a 40-hour work-week than I did at my (previous) real job, although my real job had other perks and non-monetary rewards.

I gave serious thought to playing professionally when I quit my job, but became involved with a girl and could not play during the hours which I felt would be best, so I didn't go that route.

My answer, though, is yes, I think that the both of you are quite close to accurate and feasible goals.

Miffed22001

03-20-2007, 12:23 AM

#5 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

i played 8hrs per day in 3 sessions, and its hard work.
The only reason i managed it was because it was paying the bills and i wanted to find out if i had the mentality to ever take up pro poker.

My thoughts are its tough, but possible, but needs a hell of a lot of discipline.

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-20-2007, 12:26 AM

#6 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
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Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

I am happy to see that i got some immediate responses, and certainly don't take offense to criticism regarding an idea i have no practical experience with. 40 hours a week was excessive in retrospect, even when comparing how i play on Monday's (i only have class in the evening on Monday - i work Tues-Fri). I usually play for 2 hours in the afternoon, rest for 1 then play 4-5 hours straight at night after class (i never seem to have problems staying focused at night).

I definitely need to continue reading and studying NL before i can routinely double my WR (only a 40k sample size, but it is looking to be around 3BB/100).

Congrats on movin' on up, Zook. So, HS by June/July?

bode

03-20-2007, 03:18 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2006

Location: slow motion

Posts: 4,270

bode is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by zook

Sure there are guys on 2+2 who play almost 100k hands a month, ...

lol, didnt lukie put in 100k hands in like 10 days once?

Quote:

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Knytestorme

03-21-2007, 07:37 AM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

The thing is, if you are looking at it as a primary income then look at it as a job, and a job requires essentially 35-40 hours per week so if you want to do that then be prepared to either put in about 8 hours a day with a lunch break over 5 days and take weekends off to unwind with no poker playing at all or run 5 hours per day over 7 days per week and have no free days but extra time per day.

Apart form that, how many of us actually spend 8 hours a day at work + travel time and then come home and put in another 3-5 hours playing? If you are doing that then I don't see how doing 40 hours a week is honestly that hard.

If it's because it's too hard to stay focused over a 4 hour session then it's got to be hard playing MTT's that's for sure.

NLHE lahooozaher

03-21-2007, 09:18 AM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 916

Quote:

I would be interested in hearing what others think about playing poker professionally (from a financial standpoint)...If you are doing that then I don't see how doing 40 hours a week is honestly that hard.

For shizzle yo it's fun. I play small stakes for a living and I have for almost 3 years now. Never played over $200nl and play $50fr right now.

Besides doing good in the occasional MTTs I play I never ever have or will put in 8 hour days at ring games. Right now I 12 table playing 3k hands/day which means 4-5.5 hours a day. $30-$40/hour is sweet compared to the crappy $6.50/hour job I had so I consider myself pretty lucky.

Quote:

3.57BB/100 or
($14.85/100) x3.5 = $44.55/hr.

This seems close to an optimal winrate at 400NL

You could make that much with less variance at the $100.

benny999

03-21-2007, 10:01 AM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 1,567

I've played for income too, but just since august '06. my bills are pretty low though, like 2-3k/mth, and i don't wanna get burnt out, so i've only averaged about 10 hours a week, not counting reading and analyzing stuff, which prob brings it to 20+. still the money has been real good imo, and i love the freedoms.
so ya it's not bad, but there are trade-offs. like it can get isolated if u spend too much time on the computer..just gotta be aware and stay balanced. and insurance/perks are only there when u wanna splurge..oh and it's not great if u want to build the resume (not something i'm into right now though)

Erudito

03-21-2007, 04:29 PM

#11 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2006

Posts: 150

Quote:

A Side Note: I am not myself planning on quitting my job today and playing professional poker, but i am thinking about what such a life would be like and deciding whether to postpone finishing college, since poker as a career seems fun right now and i don't see why i couldn't go back to school if playing poker no longer was enjoyable or was entirely removed from the U.S.

You would make more money in investing yourself with a college degree. It is not true that you can always get back to college. The time you are away from studying in college the hard will it to get back into the groove. You will forget a lot of things you learned, and the time lost to relearn everything will be very costly.
My advise to you would be to finish college and then try to play poker for a living. Don't do the other way around, quit college and play poker, poker will always be available and it does not discriminate anyone based on color, religion, age or anything else. You can always start to play poker where you left off at any age, imaging trying to go back to college after you are 30 yrs old and when you already forgot a lot of things which you learned from college. It will be an uphill struggle. Not recommended.
If you plan to play for more than 40 hours a week, or even play for 40 hours a week. Isn't this more like a job? At least when you have a job you get a guaranteed pay check every week, but, playing poker for 40 hours is a grind, and you will have losing sessions, weeks, or months. All professional poker players have losing months, the question is how are you going to cope with losing months, or the worst case scenario, you lose your entire bankroll?
My 2 cents.

sejje

03-21-2007, 10:25 PM

#12 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

Quote:

Originally Posted by Erudito

All professional poker players have losing months, the question is how are you going to cope with losing months, or the worst case scenario, you lose your entire bankroll?
My 2 cents.

I totally agree, get the college first. There's no reason not to, and PLENTY of reasons you should. Even if you take a half-schedule so you have more time to play, don't quit school. I did that (albeit not for poker) and it was SO hard to go back, even after just a couple of years.

That being said, when people talk about pros having losing months, I tend to think that's because either A) they're tourney pros that play little cash or B) they're playing at extremely tough LIVE limits where they have a small edge.

If you're playing 4 or more tables for 40+ hours per week and your winrate playing that many tables is anywhere near 3BB or more, I think the chances of having losing months are almost nil. I could certainly see a circumstance, however, where it would be hard to cover the bills certain months.

Vi-Zer0Skill

03-21-2007, 10:49 PM

#13 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
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Join Date: Nov 2006

Posts: 1,742

I am actually going to college part time atm, and finishing up my medical assistant degree in a couple of weeks. I might be going to continue school part time to become a P.A., so i have not yet officially postponed college.

I think learning poker and being able to learn(in college) are quite similar. I think that i should be learning to play poker well as early on as possible if i would ever want to do it for a living (strike while the iron's hot, for a metaphor).

Poker is definitely a job, and harder than many people think. First of all, you are your own boss. Which is also more difficult than it sounds, in that being your own boss requires you to be responsible for the bookkeeping, logging the necessary hours, and making yourself study.

You have to be much more disciplined when playing poker professionally than at almost any "real" job. If you have a bad day at work (i.e. you went out late, then came to work and were unproductive), you would still get paid. Assuming you didn't regularly go out late on a worknight, you could continue to acculumate money with the occasional bad day. If you have bad discipline and because you don't have to go to work in the morning decide to stay out all night and then try to play 6+ hours and multitable, you will likely lose money. In fact, it will probably be a significant amount of money, since anyone who plays poker knows how much easier it is to lose money than to make it. In essence, having bad days at work does not nullify good days; this is not true in poker.

I am getting a degree in a field where i will always be able to find employment, and at a livable wage (~$15/hr. - i am single w/ no dependents) so if poker fell through i could at least support myself until i had enough money for tuition to go back to school and get a career type job.

Professional poker playing is an exciting thought, and that may be all it ever is. But, i do love to daydream

sejje

03-22-2007, 10:22 PM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2005

Posts: 883

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

Professional poker playing is an exciting thought, and that may be all it ever is.

It IS exciting, and not just to you. And it doesn't have to just be a dream. I think it's an easily attainable goal if your desired income is not huge. If your desired income is huge, it's still an attainable goal, but maybe a longshot.

I think lots of people can devote themselves to being a winning player (heck, it doesn't even take much devotion) and then grind it out online. I think you're capable already, although I hardly know you.

But there's nothing wrong with staying in school, and it gives you a backup in case something happens. The bubble bursts, poker is outlawed, you end up hating it, whatever. It's the best out you can give yourself, no matter which way you end up going.

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