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heist
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04-25-2010, 12:05 AM
Post subject: Attempted math of preflop shove @ LOLnl
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#1 (permalink)
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One Pair
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 20
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So we are playing 2nl, we are on the button, villian is on the big blind with typical fishy stats of 63/30.
Cards are dealt and you have AA. Everyone folds to you, you raise 4xbb, small blind folds, villian shoves $2.00 ZOMGWHATDOYOUDO?
Because he's so loose, I would put him on 77+, A9+, QJ+, KT+
Against this range my equity is 84%.
Equity to call is opponents bet/(opponents bet + pot)
so 2/(2 + 0.11) = 94%
So the correct action here is to fold? Or has math once again defeated my simple brain?
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jaytoi
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 119
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Common sense fail...
Once you call the pot will be twice as big, therefore you only need half the equity you think you need.
You're treating it like you go all in, risking all your money, and he doesn't have to risk anything, but can still win your whole stack if he wins the hand. You would need 94 percent equity there (less than 100 because of money you previously invested + dead money) , but you only need like half that equity if in addition to this 2 you put down, villian also risks 2.
Just use your common sense mate! If you are obviously way ahead call!
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Im ready this time.
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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Also you fist pump snap call AA AIPF all fucking day, I really don't give a fuck what the math says.
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Nah, you just misunderstood what the pot meant in the equation. Perhaps a better way to say it is "Amount to call" / ("amount to call" + "the current pot")
So then B/(B+P) = 2/ (2+2.11) = 48%.
Which makes sense, considering the fact that villain can never offer you worse than 50% pot equity.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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Imthenewfish
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: sites im allowed to play on
Posts: 945
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I'd call if it was suited.
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05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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