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Asymmetric Warfare (Ranges 101)

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Robb

05-10-2009, 07:05 AM Post subject: Asymmetric Warfare (Ranges 101)

#1 (permalink)

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Edit: fixed EV equation. Here's about the simplest way to think of ranges. Big Cards vs. Small Cards.

Example. The flop comes AQ4, and the PFR cbets. The CC'r folds.

The preflop raiser (PFR) is presumed by everyone at the table to have big cards like AK, JJ or KQs. The cold caller (CC) is presumed to have small and medium cards like J9s or 55. And that's it. Big card range to the PFR, and small card range to the CC. We can think deeper, and should, but honestly most of our competition at the micros never gets past the big card / small card thing to a solid idea of ranges.

Strong Symmetric Hands. The PFR holds AJ. The flop is AQx. He cbets. The CC folds.

Hero's hand is strong, and his holding is symmetric with the range he's representing. His open-raise said "I have big cards." His cbet said, "I like the flop just fine, thanks." TAGG poker.

Weak Asymmetric Hands. The PFR holds 77. The flop is AQ4. He cbets. The CC folds.

The reason the cbet works is because Hero's still repping the Ax type hand. But his true holding is weak, and it's asymmetric to his represented range. Most TAGG's get comfortable with Weak Asymmetry.

Hand 1.

UTG is 30/10 and somewhat of a station postflop, though I only have about 100 hands with him. When I raise from the BB, I know he's floating 90% of the flops we'll see. He'll need convincing that I actually have decent cards.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($72.20)
UTG 1 ($46.00)
CO ($105.30)
BTN ($121.85)
SB ($126.90)
Hero (BB) ($123.40)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB

UTG calls $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $4, UTG calls $3, SB folds

Flop:

($9, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6

Turn:

($21, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, UTG folds

Final Pot: $21

Admittedly, I probably have the best hand on the flop, but he could be limp/calling some Axs and even JTs/J9s (or 66!). I have to convince him I actually have a better Ace than his or that I have an Ace when he doesn't. The turn isn't a total brick, but it's not likely to have helped him out.

That's how we use Asymmetric Warfare all the time, representing hands that are much better than we ones we have with our cbet/2-barreling lines. If we tell a story that's believable based on the board and our image, villains will fold hands that they shouldn't have. And we profit.

What I never understood until a few months ago is that we don't have to have much of hand to attack villain's who are using this weak version of Asymmetry too often. We can represent a big hand and attack like we have one. If they cbet too frequently and choose the wrong boards, they're walking into poker's equivalent of guerilla warfare without any ammunition.

Hand 2. Asymmetric Warfare.

Villain is a decent TAGG, about 24/18/3. He doesn't play positionally enough, so his UTG is fairly wide, open-raising 14% or 15% of his hands over an 800 hand sample. He cbets 85% of the time and otherwise plays straightforward, unimaginative poker.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($108.10)
UTG 1 ($103.00)
Hero (CO) ($118.65)
BTN ($130.40)
SB ($101.00)
BB ($69.65)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is CO

UTG raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 3 folds

Flop:

($9.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero raises to $24, UTG folds

It should be fairly obvious the flop missed his range, but he's still got hands likes TT+ that will continue here. So is this raise a good idea? If he's opening 15% of his hands, then he's really only able to call or raise with two diamonds in his hand, TT+ or a set. You can work out exact ranges yourself, but the possible hands he can continue with is less than 5% of all starting hands. That's less than a third of his range.

Since this villain cbets 85% of the time, that means that he's got "air" about 1.5 x more often than a solid hand.

Let "W" be Hero's ability to win the pot when called or raised, or (in other words) Hero's playable equity in the pot if Villain doesn't fold. The math says Hero expected value is:

EV = ( $17.50) 0.6 + [ ( $57.50 * W) - ($57.50 * ( 1 - W)) ]0.4.

So Hero's play is +EV whenever W > 27%. That's surprising to most folks, that Hero only has to pull one win out of four attempts when called to make this ploy break even. With position, reads, the ability fire scary cards plus the "stronger" represented range, he can often expect to do better even with a hand that is behind basically every hand that might call. (Edited the EV equation and this paragraph.)

The key to using these tactics are to progress past "Ranges 101" where you think solely in terms of big cards and small ones so that you can exploit those who do. But the general idea is very useful. You're going to have less trouble convincing someone to fold if your represented range is strong in terms of "big cards." The concept of "dry flops" is simply the art of picking flops that have low cards in them but don't hit the "low card range" very hard.

And remember, most of your opponents think, if they think at all, in terms of big cards and small cards. Confront them with a "lethal show of force."

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

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05-10-2009, 07:18 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Hand 1: pick better spots
in fact I'm not unhappy to just check it pf
and I'm not crazy about barrelling because the only hand we make him fold that we're not ahead of is Jx
am I really losing that much by not barrelling here?

Hand 2: I am more happy to float here because we have the best hand a decent % of the time
and we have close to 0% chance of winning this hand after we c/r because we either get shoved on or called by a better hand
or are you really expecting him to say "I got this, I got the ace and the king" and call the flop with less than your pair of sixes?

Fnord

05-10-2009, 02:59 PM

#3 (permalink)

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The rabbit hole goes deeper.

If you have money to burn, buy a subscription to Leggo poker and watch Bobbo Fitos videos until your eyes bleed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Robb

05-10-2009, 03:52 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Hand 2: I am more happy to float here because we have the best hand a decent % of the time

More than a third of the cards that can hit the turn make the hand completely unplayable. Floating is the worst option. I could see an argument for check/folding. Honestly, I check/fold this like 80% of the time, and take this action only in carefully set up spots that fit within the context of my image, gameflow and based on a solid read.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

The rabbit hole goes deeper.

^^^this

I read some old nutsinho threads yesterday with ISF and others chiming in. The top FTR guys really get this game, how the ranges merge, how meta gets involved, how various actions create others. I'm learning but know that I have a ways to go. Reading the game sounds simple. But when it's done well, it looks like soul reading.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

05-10-2009, 08:07 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Robb: the point of the float is that I'm betting the turn when he checks
So what if our hand becomes garbage, I'm just hoping he doesn't like his either

ColdDecked

05-10-2009, 08:19 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2009

Posts: 217

I'm with iopq on this. I'd often float on hand 2 and I don't think floating is the worst option, since there are a lot more cards that would cause the villain to shut down and we rep a lot of hands by floating. We could be holding a FD, SD, a 9, or what we're actually holding, a small/medium pp. So that really leaves 12 cards that hurt us (3A, 3K, 3Q, 3J). And unless he has an Ace in his hand, or the diamond ace comes on the turn, he won't be betting an ace since it hits the nut flush draw part of our range, and we can rep that too. More often than not, he'd be checking the turn and you can take it down with a bet.

I'm not saying that raising the flop is a bad play, just saying that floating shouldn't be discounted here too. Sometimes I float with air on boards that I think miss the villain's range to try to take the pot down on the turn and play our position.

Parasurama

05-10-2009, 08:31 PM

#7 (permalink)

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I'm not sure these hands illustrate your point very well Robb

Robb

05-10-2009, 08:47 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Robb: the point of the float is that I'm betting the turn when he checks
So what if our hand becomes garbage, I'm just hoping he doesn't like his either

So you fold to a 2nd barrel?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

So that really leaves 12 cards that hurt us (3A, 3K, 3Q, 3J).

Wouldn't that be 16 cards? 4A, 4K, 4Q and 4J?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

And unless he has an Ace in his hand, or the diamond ace comes on the turn, he won't be betting an ace since it hits the nut flush draw part of our range, and we can rep that too. More often than not, he'd be checking the turn and you can take it down with a bet.

This is all still true if he calls the flop raise, only his range is narrower and our hand looks stronger.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

05-10-2009, 09:04 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Robb: yes I fold to a barrel, but I lose less than you do when he 3bs flop
my line also has the advantage of sometimes being able to abandon our plan and going to showdown if we feel like it

ColdDecked

05-10-2009, 09:18 PM

#10 (permalink)

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We rep the diamond draw here, so unless he wants to bet out when the draw hits, the diamond face cards are bluff outs for us.

By floating and betting an ace, we might get a hand like TT or JJ to fold which may otherwise not fold to a flop raise. We don't really want to commit that many chips on a bluff. The downside to floating is that we do end up giving him a free card that could beat us. The upside is that it's generally safer as iopq stated, we lose less than we would with a raise on the flop. We also get more information from our villain for approximately the same price as we would with a flop raise, since we get to see whether he will barrel again or check. Also, betting after he checks turn is a lot safer than raising the flop since we can narrow his range further.

Of course, you won't be floating as routinely against villains who 2 barrel a lot. But without reads, I think floating then taking the pot away on the turn is a decent line that capitalizes on our position.

Robb

05-10-2009, 09:31 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

We rep the diamond draw here, so unless he wants to bet out when the draw hits, the diamond face cards are bluff outs for us.

Almost half of his unpaired range and exactly half of his paired range has a diamond in it that has be bigger that whatever diamonds we're repping. Bluffing a face card diamond is taking a sizable risk of getting shoved over.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

Fnord

05-10-2009, 09:38 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

The rabbit hole goes deeper.

Bobbo brings up some different content and goes over the same content if a very easy to understand mannor. Really sick stuff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

05-10-2009, 09:42 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

We rep the diamond draw here, so unless he wants to bet out when the draw hits, the diamond face cards are bluff outs for us.

I don't agree we rep a diamond draw by calling, we're repping a diamond draw by raising

also, like half of his diamonds are low, is he really shoving TcTd on a 5d3d9cKd board?

ColdDecked

05-10-2009, 09:43 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Posts: 217

So we're worried he's going to c/r shove a diamond draw on the turn? If the Jd comes and he has say, AJ without a diamond, how often would he bet that? More often than not, he'd check call since he'd want to showdown tptk. If he bets the diamond, a card that hits our range pretty hard, it would show quite a bit of strength and we can still release our hand since we're not committed.

ColdDecked

05-10-2009, 09:48 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

We rep the diamond draw here, so unless he wants to bet out when the draw hits, the diamond face cards are bluff outs for us.

I don't agree we rep a diamond draw by calling, we're repping a diamond draw by raising

also, like half of his diamonds are low, is he really shoving TcTd on a 5d3d9cKd board?

I dunno about you, but I usually call with my draws. So if I'm raising the flop, I usually don't have a draw unless it's a really big one. But flops like this hits my range pretty hard since I'm calling preflop with a lot of suited connectors in position.

05-10-2009, 10:03 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

We rep the diamond draw here, so unless he wants to bet out when the draw hits, the diamond face cards are bluff outs for us.

I don't agree we rep a diamond draw by calling, we're repping a diamond draw by raising

also, like half of his diamonds are low, is he really shoving TcTd on a 5d3d9cKd board?

well, I prefer if I raise with a draw and he checks to me on the turn I can check it back
same amount of bets as call/call to get to the river while having fold equity on the flop

Robb

05-10-2009, 10:09 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Parasurama

I'm not sure these hands illustrate your point very well Robb

Fair enough. I'm not saying either line is correct even a quarter of the time, btw. Sometimes you pick a spot where villain is telling a story that's very unlikely to be true. Against unimaginative opponents, we can read their weakness and profit. I don't do this very often (even when the story he's telling if "off"), but I feel it's an effective part of the entire strategy I use to tackle ABC opponents who cbet way too often. Most of the time I get looked up here, I have the goods.

@ Cold Deck - I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. I just don't much care for a float-bluff line with a hopeless hand. Only 8 cards add to our equity (only two of which likely put us ahead) - everything else puts us further behind or in the position of making a weaker bluff on the turn.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

05-10-2009, 10:19 PM

#18 (permalink)

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it's not a hopeless hand, we're ahead of all of his overs

Robb

05-10-2009, 10:31 PM

#19 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

it's not a hopeless hand, we're ahead of all of his overs

Can we just agree to disagree?

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

05-10-2009, 10:42 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

it's not a hopeless hand, we're ahead of all of his overs

Can we just agree to disagree?

No, how else are we going to learn. I want input from other people. Wouldn't this be a better flop to raise if we had JTo?

Fnord

05-10-2009, 10:48 PM

#21 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

it's not a hopeless hand, we're ahead of all of his overs

Can we just agree to disagree?

/agree with IOPQ

Should tend to flat here and this spot certainly isn't raise/fold.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

daven

05-10-2009, 11:10 PM

#22 (permalink)

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i've saved this thread to my laptop to read at the airport in singapore.
i may come up with some sort of half-decent response during my six hour stop there... or maybe I'll simply spend the time juggling.

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

Robb

05-10-2009, 11:27 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

it's not a hopeless hand, we're ahead of all of his overs

Can we just agree to disagree?

No, how else are we going to learn. I want input from other people. Wouldn't this be a better flop to raise if we had JTo?

After this, I'm done. We'll just have to quit learning and disagree I suppose.

1. Read: villain is an unimaginative cbetting monkey.

2. I'm not playing my hand, I'm playing his.

3. He'll see monsters under the bed, and not think about my actual range ('cuz he doesn't think well).

4. This is a PICKED spot with a non-standard line I'm using to cross him up. A curve ball. In general, on this board, against this villain, with this hand or weaker, I fold.

5. In general, on this board, against this villain, with a better holding, floating is a great idea. So we can agree there, possibly?

6. I think our playability on the turn drops A LOT on tons of boards, so I feel the proper time to take him off his (better) hand is now.

7. I think it's a stone cold bluff and don't want the equity/playability headache on the turn or river.

8. The ranges split better to a c/r flop than when we fire the turn behind a check. IMO, he plays his cards more face up to the c/r flop making it easier to get away from the hand if we need to, and easier to find a way to steal it when possible on the turn.

I may be right or wrong about any of the above, but that's my read. I was sitting at the table and feel like I got it right. It fits with my image and style. It makes me a tough opponent for these non-thinking reg-fish.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

ColdDecked

05-11-2009, 02:35 AM

#24 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdDecked

We rep the diamond draw here, so unless he wants to bet out when the draw hits, the diamond face cards are bluff outs for us.

I don't agree we rep a diamond draw by calling, we're repping a diamond draw by raising

also, like half of his diamonds are low, is he really shoving TcTd on a 5d3d9cKd board?

well, I prefer if I raise with a draw and he checks to me on the turn I can check it back
same amount of bets as call/call to get to the river while having fold equity on the flop

Meh, we get 3 bet by the hands that will may likely stack if we hit. Both ways are fine and good imo, but I like to float a lot so I like to keep a wide range for floating. Sometimes I pick a suit in a specific position on the flop to determine whether I play it aggressively. For example, if I had JTo, I'd say to myself if a club is the middle card on the flop, I'll raise my oesd. Helps keep us from building a pattern.

And as for Robb, your play isn't wrong. If you have a good read, it's still +EV for you to be doing this. I personally float with better and worse here (depends on villain of course). Float bet turn saves us money in the long run, I think. If he calls the turn bet I'm giving up unless I hit a 6. I play pretty loose so low non-face card flops are yum yum for me.

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