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View Poll Results: Agree?
No. Only fish call pot-sized flop bets with draws. 1 20.00%
Yes. Long term profitable. 2 40.00%
Standard. Not worthy of thread discussion. 2 40.00%
Voters: 5. You may not vote on this poll

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arti-fish-ial odds?

  
 
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siknd
Old 05-25-2006, 05:17 PM     Post subject: arti-fish-ial odds? #1 (permalink)  
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siknd
im wondering how you approach playing flush draws OOP into opponents who have 'made' hands.

ive been experimenting with this:
flop, catch 4flush call up to pot.
turn, miss (assuming board doesnt pr), bet 1/3 pot; call min raise or fold

i think this is nearly mathematically sound. calling a pot sized bet on the flop is not as terrible as it seems, since generally the flop pot will be relatively (in implied odds terms) small. betting out 1/3 pot on the turn gives you 4:1 odds for your 4.1:1 draw. if opponent falls for it, great, you are seeing the river at the right price and prevented him from taking your odds away. if he makes the mistake of just min-raising you, you now call with 6:1 odds (or do you consider this to be a case of creating artificial odds for yourself). also, often enough after flat calling the flop and leading the turn you will be pleasantly surprised to find your opponent fold air. you need to have the discipline to fold a missed river, but if you catch the flush you have worked to conceal it so will generally get paid for a 1/2 pot bet. i run this play heads up with any flush draw, but prefer the nut draw multi-way. thots?

heres an example. if the numbers are really close, my ace might be live and thats enough to push me toward correctness.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed)

MP2 ($279)
MP3 (villian)/ ($446.90)
CO ($239.70)
Button ($119.94)
siknd ($396.05)
BB ($313.46)
UTG ($256.90)
UTG+1 ($168.46)
MP1 ($195.09)

Preflop: siknd is SB with J, A. siknd posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, 2 folds, MP3 =(villian)/ raises to $12, 2 folds, siknd (poster) calls $10, BB calls $8, UTG+1 calls $8.

Flop: ($48) 8, 3, K (4 players)
siknd checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, villian bets $45.6, siknd calls $45.60, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($139.20) 6 (2 players)
siknd bets $45, villian calls $45.

River: ($229.20) T (2 players)
siknd checks, villian bets $100, siknd folds.

Final Pot: $329.20

Results in white below:
villian doesn't show.
Outcome: villian wins $329.20.
'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '
 
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 05-26-2006, 01:46 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Against the right donk it's a good move...but against an awarew maniac or TAG you wiollbe toast.
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ark4748
Old 05-26-2006, 02:29 AM     Post subject: Re: arti-fish-ial odds? #3 (permalink)  

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ark4748
I've only played lower stakes so take this for what is worth. In terms of being mathematically sound, it seems you have correct odds postflop. But I think this is -EV once you consider calling the preflop raise OOP. You woudn't make enough when you hit your flush to offset all the times you don't catch the 4 flush, at least HU. A mutliway pot seems to be a better time to try this.
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thnwkd
Old 05-26-2006, 03:39 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Location: Bahamas
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thnwkd
one word for this my friend... spewage... also ryhmes with sewage.

well i have to edit this to say i've only played a few hands at 100nl and have just moved up to 50nl, so i don't know, maybe there are some other considerations @ 400nl that i'm not aware of?

This hand just seems so fundamentally wrong, really donkish pre-flop and post-flop imo.
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benny999
Old 05-26-2006, 07:03 AM #5 (permalink)  
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yep, I also think this gets a ton less EV from draws/flushes vs lines involving position and substantial aggression/fold equity, or multi-way pots where you get close to correct pot odds.

wow I just got overinvolved in the math of this play, but it's good because now I'm not playing tilted poker (from a dumb play I made a little bit ago to rep a flush haha). anyway after thinking about the math, I don't even think it's good vs any type of opp. I think you're overestimating the times they fold the turn and/or how big a pot you win after hitting the flush. It's late, I could be off on this, but here are my calculations...

~9/10 (correct?) you don't flop your four flush...
you are OOP with a mediocre hand or air. Assuming you fold the flop to any bet, the EV is:
-1 (limp) to -4bb (limp/call a pfr) x .9 = -1 to -3.5bb

1/10 you flop four flush...
2/3 you miss by the river = call/call/weak-bet/fold = a huge -EV (depends on how big a PSB is on the flop and if you get raised out of the pot on the turn)
1/6 you hit on the turn, 1/6 on the river and win an ok pot, so a simplified EV is:
1/3 x .1 x ~100-200bb (a very optimistic amount to win)= about 3 to 7bb

and for folds on the turn...
.1 (flopping 4-flush) x 1/2 (optimistic fold equity of 1/3 potting turn) x ~15 = around 1bb.

In your hand, it looks like around a -2.7bb EV (-3x.9) on the pre flop limp/call (if only playing for a flush) AND -18bb (-11 x 5/6 + -11*5/6) on the check/call/weak-bet/fold, meaning you need an enormous pot if you actually hit. Unless I am missing something...wow is that -EV.
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Renton
Old 05-26-2006, 07:48 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 I believe its almost always profitable to call PSB's on the flop with 8+ out draws in NLHE. Its kinda similar to calling potsize bets preflop with pocket pairs.

I don't think it works quite as well in a bloated pot as in your example. I wouldn't do it in a four way flop like that cuz your implied odds aren't that great (stack ratio sucks).

I think it also depends on the strength of your draw, and on the rank of your draw. In your example, the A's might have been outs, plus you had a backdoor nut str8 draw. Plus your flush draw was nut, so if you were up against an aggro who also happens to be drawing to the diamonds, then you have him drawing very slim, potentially.
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Miffed22001
Old 05-27-2006, 04:07 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 start creating some fold equity/pot size on the flop by pressing the raise button with a wide range including monsters, draws and air.
As a rule i never call a potsized bet on the flop as you have too much fold equity or none on the turn.
If i raise on the flop i
1. steal pots when opp has nothing
2. encourage opps to play back at me with a wider range
3. get all the money in by the river, with or without a hand and ask opps to make calls for stacks, rather than having to weak fold the river as you do here.
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