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AQs in 3 bet pot 250bb Deep 6max

  
 
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!Luck
Old 08-08-2010, 04:20 AM     Post subject: AQs in 3 bet pot 250bb Deep 6max #1 (permalink)  
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 Button is 20/14 with a 13.5% 3 bet mainly in LP positions (over 90 hands). Also, early in the night when I was 200bb deep with him I raise to .15 he 3 bet to .45 I 4 bet to 1.2 he 5 bet to 2.65, I shoved he folded. This is why I didn't want to 4 bet here cause though there might be value there, i didn't think I could stack off this deep and quite frankly it would be difficult position. So I called because with my hand I thought I could play it.

Flop comes and I am happy, though, I still have no reason to bet, his range is AK type hands and tons of pocket pairs, he calls with most of them, might even raise, and stacking off this deep just didn't seem right. By the turn I had a mental fart, I think I should check again, once I bet he raises, i cannot profitable call this.

I want input on weather I should check the turn, which I think is the best play. And any other thoughts on how to play this deep vs fairly aggressive opponents. My strategy has been to just wait for my hand and let them hang themselves, i tighten my stealing range slightly, but with this guy he only 3 bets me when I steal from CO and not when he is in SB.

Also, I know some advise to never play this deep with an aggressive opponent, but I need to get used to this and in theory everyone at 5nl is bad so it is as good time as any.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($21.89)
Button ($12.50)
SB ($5.34)
BB ($9.26)
UTG ($3.97)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.15, Button raises to $0.45, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) 3, 6, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.97) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, Button raises to $3.15, Hero folds

Total pot: $2.47 | Rake: $0.12

Thank you for your input
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Micro2Macro
Old 08-08-2010, 05:17 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 your logic for flatting pre seems good.

what do you suspect his checking range on the flop be? have there been any hands you witnessed that may give you a clue here?
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Icanhastreebet
Old 08-08-2010, 05:20 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 I'd probably shove now since you have 16 outs v goofily played overpairs and he certainly c-bets all his 5s cept 65 and 55. If he's b/fing all his overpairs you get him to fold enough that getting it in w/ 12outs(5s and diamonds) is gonna be huge +eV. However if his turn range is only 55/56 which it very well could be your play obviously becomes a lot worst but I think most aggro people 3bing pre this much has a wide enough range postflop to make me love a shove.
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!Luck
Old 08-08-2010, 05:27 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 In way i don't have enough info to know what he checks with. He is fairly aggressive but not one those crazy aggressive poeple who once they 3 bet can't let it go. I really feel that a bunch of his range for checking is mid pockets. Maybe he had 55? It is one of the few hands that make sense and maybe 44. His sizing is trying to protect. I feel good about my fold, though if a 9 came, I don't think my bet is that bad considering his entire range. Plus, now that I think about his 3 bet size has always been decent, small enough to get me to fold and his sizing looks so much like value here.

This is a clear c/c situation. If a K comes I think I can bet. the turn card in this case is so important and determines if barrel or not. and 4 isn't great.
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!Luck
Old 08-08-2010, 05:29 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Icanhasstreebet,

His sizing just screams value and protection. I don't see how I have that much fold equity. I don't see him doing this with JJ, maybe KK and AA?

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Icanhastreebet
Old 08-08-2010, 09:10 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 if you think his change is tight enough to where you don't have any FE then you can flat the raise profitably but I still think you have lots of FE as an aggro player is gonna bluff this a fairly decent % + you have tonnes of equity.

Here's the math showing why flatting is profitable since you think he's super strong.
Your calling 2.4 to win 4.9 so 2.4/7.3=33%, 19% of the deck gives you the nuts and 5x essentially gives you the nuts since he would have c-bet 75 on the flop.(this assumes he doesn't have 78 also on the turn). anyway so you have about 12 outs or about 25%

When you call your essentially losing 2.4*.33 - 2.4*.25 The equity you need minus the equity you have
This comes out to -.192.

This means we need to make 20cents from him on the river to justify a turn call without ever losing ofcourse which we are assuming because we're assuming he has 5x. If you stack him just 2.2% of the time on the river you are going to show a profit by calling the turn. Obviously we don't stack him when a 5 rolls off because he'll probably call for a chop when we shove(If he folds our play becomes even more +eV). But if your right in your read that he is "super strong" you should flat turn planning to win some type of bet on the river. If you think he's kind of strong but can still have bluffs you should definitely shove. Same goes for if you think he's really FOS.
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Icanhastreebet
Old 08-08-2010, 09:15 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 Oh and I ignored rake obviously but it shouldn't be too much of a difference
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!Luck
Old 08-08-2010, 04:08 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Thanks. Icanhastreebet. I can see calling or shoving here now. Though, what do you think of just checking here?

Basically if I have any implied odds at all, which I do if his hand is as strong as I think this is a call. (Shove works too based on what you said)
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Icanhastreebet
Old 08-08-2010, 10:52 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by !Luck View Post
Thanks. Icanhastreebet. I can see calling or shoving here now. Though, what do you think of just checking here?

Basically if I have any implied odds at all, which I do if his hand is as strong as I think this is a call. (Shove works too based on what you said)
I'd definitely still bet
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surviva316
Old 08-10-2010, 02:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 def bet the turn since our range>>>>>>>his range

like the top of his range for checking back the flop is like 77-99 and i certainly don't think he takes a 3b pf/check back flop line with those hands here anywhere near 100% of the time. 65s/64s/44 improved but that's 8 combos.

i think i like betting the turn pretty close to full PSB and barrelling a ton of rivers
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