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Any reason to call this?

  
 
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Borax
Old 10-17-2006, 07:35 PM     Post subject: Any reason to call this? #1 (permalink)  
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Pot odds to call here? No read.

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $20
UTG+1: $120.79
UTG+2: $74.75
MP1: $65.50
MP2: $87.61
MP3: $123.50
Hero: $101.50
Button: $25.74
SB: $112.75
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with T T
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises to $5, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: J 9 Q ($25.5, 5 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $20, 2 folds, MP2 raises all-in $82.61, MP3 folds, Hero
'Well, obviously, this is not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any manufacturers of dairy products.'
 
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 10-17-2006, 07:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Hard to say when we don't know how much you have behind.
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Warpe
Old 10-17-2006, 07:57 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 No. I don't think I'm c-betting that flop either with that many callers.



 
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bode
Old 10-17-2006, 08:01 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
No. I don't think I'm c-betting that flop either with that many callers.
agreed. with this many callers, i check this around. if there were 2 unders and no draws, i might make a c-bet, but not here
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nutsinho
Old 10-17-2006, 09:00 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 you have to fold this if you give him credit for more than one pair.
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gabe
Old 10-17-2006, 11:01 PM #6 (permalink)  
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post stack sizes, for all we know its $1 back to you and the easiest call ever
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BankItDrew
Old 10-17-2006, 11:39 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 The pot is now $127. Another $62 to call. If you win about 55% of the time, it's a good call. Unfortunatly, a raise like this signifies >Q2 at least 55% of the time.

So, let's look at outs. Lets say he has 99 or 88. You have 10 outs. 10 outs = 41%. Since 41% is less than 55%, you can't rely on outs.

Easy fold I believe.


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Borax
Old 10-18-2006, 11:08 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
post stack sizes, for all we know its $1 back to you and the easiest call ever
ok, stack sizes have now been posted. Thanks for reminding me
'Well, obviously, this is not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any manufacturers of dairy products.'
 
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Borax
Old 10-18-2006, 11:13 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
The pot is now $127. Another $62 to call. If you win about 55% of the time, it's a good call. Unfortunatly, a raise like this signifies >Q2 at least 55% of the time.

So, let's look at outs. Lets say he has 99 or 88. You have 10 outs. 10 outs = 41%. Since 41% is less than 55%, you can't rely on outs.

Easy fold I believe.
I should know this. My bet on the flop was probably bad as some people pointed out and I made the wrong desision and called his push. He showed QJ, turned another Q and won the hand. I needed someone to tell me why this was bad play and I should also remember not to play when I'm too tired So, thank you very much guys.
'Well, obviously, this is not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any manufacturers of dairy products.'
 
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Jimmy Mac
Old 10-19-2006, 03:20 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
The pot is now $127. Another $62 to call. If you win about 55% of the time, it's a good call.
Is this correct? The pot is offering hero 2-1 odds, so he needs around 33% equity to breakeven, no?

After playing around with pokerstove, i still think it's a fold though.
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Borax
Old 10-19-2006, 10:04 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
The pot is now $127. Another $62 to call. If you win about 55% of the time, it's a good call. Unfortunatly, a raise like this signifies >Q2 at least 55% of the time.

So, let's look at outs. Lets say he has 99 or 88. You have 10 outs. 10 outs = 41%. Since 41% is less than 55%, you can't rely on outs.

Easy fold I believe.
Hm... a bit more thinking after Jimmy Mac posts. If he have 88 I am winning with my TT. And based on what Jimmy Mac says I am:

31.82% to win against 99
91.21% against 88
37.88% against AA
23.94% against KK
23.34% against QQ or JJ
38.28% against AQ or AJ
53.23% against AT
27.47% against KQ
34.24% against QJ
33.13% against J9s
36% to draw or win against JT
34.5% to draw or win against QTs

He limped and called preflop, so AA, KK and QQ is not likely.
88 seems like he would fold. With KT for a flopped straight he would probably flat call I guess. A set or two pair makes sense and maybe KQ. In any case I am behind here and need to improve my hand. If I need 33% to break even this is suddenly close to a call then?
'Well, obviously, this is not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any manufacturers of dairy products.'
 
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