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Any point in value betting this river?

  
 
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Hoopy
Old 04-15-2009, 01:21 PM     Post subject: Any point in value betting this river? #1 (permalink)  
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 No stats, villian seemed to like limping with marginal hands but didn't usually call raises. My table table image is pretty bad as I had a rush of cards and raised the last 4 hands.

I think his range includes a lot of broadway cards and medium pairs but not totally junk hands. I've also seem him check/call all the way in another hand with top two pair.

Probably an easy question to answer but a the time I really wasn't sure what to do.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($3.04)
MP1 ($7.33)
MP2 ($4.31)
MP3 ($4.90)
Hero (CO) ($5.74)
Button ($2.96)
SB ($2.50)
BB ($6.92)
UTG ($4.81)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q
UTG calls $0.05, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 4 folds, MP1 calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.72) Q, J, 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.55, MP1 calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.82) 6 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.40, MP1 calls $1.40

River: ($4.62) 7 (2 players)
MP1 checks
HoopyDude??
Total pot: $4.62
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Lucothefish
Old 04-15-2009, 01:28 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Against a typical station you're probably ahead here. Get your last $3.50 in.
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Vinland
Old 04-15-2009, 01:29 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Vinland is an unknown quantity at this point
 I think its safe to bet imo.
He's shown no strength. I make it minimum $3 on river. You've been willing to bet and he has shown no strength back so thats a good sign for you. Your image may have him calling you down with a worse Q or he could be on a st8 draw...
Love to hear others thoughts on this one.
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dtamburin
Old 04-15-2009, 02:28 PM #4 (permalink)  

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I'd say he's on a draw or a Q with a worse kicker. Maybe A10, AK, K10, K9 since you said he likes to limp. Unless he is really playing tricky and he is going to C/R you on the river. But I'm discounting that and betting the river, as vinland said 3.00 at least.
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Lucothefish
Old 04-15-2009, 02:36 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 he's only got $3.49 stack left, may as well shove.
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texa8
Old 04-15-2009, 02:45 PM #6 (permalink)  
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does anyone else think a shove may finally get the msg across and fold out some portion of villians hands??

i dont mind betting $2 on the river there making a call a bit easier for villian.

Very confident we are ahead here.
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Illfavor
Old 04-15-2009, 04:11 PM     Post subject: Re: Any point in value betting this river? #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
I think his range includes a lot of broadway cards and medium pairs but not totally junk hands.
Like What? QJ, QT, KJ, KT, JT, 44, and maaaaybe TT? How we doin vs. that, do you think he's calling a river shove w/2nd pair, and what bet do you think maximizes our value here?

This is relatively simple math that if you actually take the time to do, imo, you will have a clear answer and you will have understood how to get it in the future, making you a much better player.
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Stacks
Old 04-15-2009, 04:53 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Shove-a-dove. Also Texa8, it really depends upon his actual frequency in which he calls each bet-size. If he is only marginally more likely to call the $2 bet over the $3.50 shove, then we likely have a greater EV with the shove, as it has to be called less often to be as profitable (since we are making more).

This imo doesn't really apply in this situation,however, if it's a case where villain is likely to call significantly lighter when a smaller bet-size is used, then it might be more effective to use the smaller betsize. However, adverse to the last reason if with a shove villain is going to fold better some % of the time, then it might be best once again to go with the larger size.

Basically it boils down to frequencies and villain's hand range. Here, this villain likely falls into the category I would lump the majority of the micro-stakes players into, and he doesn't differentiate too much based on bet-sizing, and he doesn't understand pot odds, and how often he needs to be good here to make the call profitable, etc. So he is likely to have the same calling range regardless of our betsize here, as long as it's reasonable.
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AFchung
Old 04-15-2009, 04:56 PM #9 (permalink)  
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get it in here. spots like these pad your win rate
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surviva316
Old 04-15-2009, 05:20 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 if you don't feel comfortable here then when do you feel comfortable w AQo? is it the J that scares you?
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lockpull
Old 04-15-2009, 06:02 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Shove river IMO. He has called 3/4 pot bets the whole way down so what's one more... if he missed his draw he is most likley not calling any size bet and you get to use your table image against villian to get him to call with worse. I think you get more value shoving here in the long run.


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texa8
Old 04-16-2009, 04:28 AM #12 (permalink)  
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thanks stacks for your detailed response.

i feel i may be missing value in situations like this when not shoving.

i dont feel this villian is ever folding any better hands to a shove, but every other reason is very valid and seeminly correct.

I feel sometimes that yes, although numbskull villians dont think about bet sizes in relation to the pot, some might actually say to a $2.5 bet on the river "oh its only $2.5.." but to a shove say "fuck hes ALL IN i'm really boned here"... dunno.. i guess that plays on the fact that they have no idea about bet sizes in comparison to pot sizes, so they look at it simply as 'all in' rather than simply 3/4 of the pot... i agree with you stacks, i guess im just extending on my thoughts beyond a basic level of rambling suggestions like... "lets bet $2" lol
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Hoopy
Old 04-16-2009, 12:16 PM     Post subject: Re: Any point in value betting this river? #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
I think his range includes a lot of broadway cards and medium pairs but not totally junk hands.
Like What? QJ, QT, KJ, KT, JT, 44, and maaaaybe TT? How we doin vs. that, do you think he's calling a river shove w/2nd pair, and what bet do you think maximizes our value here?

This is relatively simple math that if you actually take the time to do, imo, you will have a clear answer and you will have understood how to get it in the future, making you a much better player.
Well against that range we crush everything but QJ and 44 and I get the feeling that he would call down with a J or a weaker Q than me. He might be so passive as to c/c all 3 streets with a set or two pair.

I'm not really sure what you mean about math in this situation could you explain further. Thanks for all the replies so far.
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Lucothefish
Old 04-16-2009, 12:30 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 You're pot commited here, you could argue that the villain isn't but with 30% of his stack in there it's a close call.

He may be on a busted draw with AK, KT or T9 in which case he'll fold to a river bet, but regardless I still think the most value is in a shove.
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dtamburin
Old 04-16-2009, 01:13 PM #15 (permalink)  

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Luco,

Your right, I didn't calculate what he had left. I'm amending my 3.00 bet to just shove.
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settecba
Old 04-16-2009, 01:52 PM     Post subject: Re: Any point in value betting this river? #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoopyDude
Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
I think his range includes a lot of broadway cards and medium pairs but not totally junk hands.
Like What? QJ, QT, KJ, KT, JT, 44, and maaaaybe TT? How we doin vs. that, do you think he's calling a river shove w/2nd pair, and what bet do you think maximizes our value here?

This is relatively simple math that if you actually take the time to do, imo, you will have a clear answer and you will have understood how to get it in the future, making you a much better player.
Well against that range we crush everything but QJ and 44 and I get the feeling that he would call down with a J or a weaker Q than me. He might be so passive as to c/c all 3 streets with a set or two pair.

I'm not really sure what you mean about math in this situation could you explain further. Thanks for all the replies so far.
By math he means the following:

See how many possible combinations of each hand in villains range are there. Then check against how many of them you are ahead(this will give you your equity). If that is over 50%, you should go with a value bet.
If you didnt undestand the previous paragraph, you could search "geometric visualization", author "spoonitnow", and start from there.

Also, Pokerstove will do the above for you just entering your cards, board, and villains range. However, I recommend you try to do the math for yourself.
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notoriousnf
Old 04-16-2009, 02:10 PM #17 (permalink)  

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All in I'd say here. Top pair with top kicker, only hands you're running into that suck are QJ or a set.
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