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Analyzing a Semi-Bluff

  
 
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BooG690
Old 10-07-2009, 10:33 PM     Post subject: Analyzing a Semi-Bluff #1 (permalink)  
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 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Replayer from Poker Hands Replayer



UTG ($71.20)
MP ($27.90)
CO ($48.20)
Hero (Button) ($53.10)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
UTG bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.25) Q, 5, A (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB raises to $7.55, 2 folds, Hero raises to $52.35 (All-In), SB calls $16.70 (All-In)

Villain is a 23/20 and I've only seen him three-bet once preflop (this was on the button and out of 35 opportunities). I've seen villain check-raise on the flop in a multi-way pot once before.

Anywho, we will be analyzing my semi-bluff here. I figure learning to analyze your own hands is a good skill to have. Also, I wanted to post it up to see if there's anything wrong with the math I did or my bluff (I personally don't think it's good since not many better hands fold). I will be asking a series of questions for you guys (noobs preferably) to answer. This will lead you to some interesting conclusions.

Questions
1) Assume villain only calls here with {AQ,55}. What is our equity against his calling range?
Hint: PokerStove is your friend.
* 2) Using our EV equation, what percentage of the time must villain fold for our semi-bluff here to be breakeven?

* We can use the equation: EV = (percentage villain folds)(current pot) + (percentage villain calls)(our equity)(current pot + our bet) - (percentage villain calls)(villain's equity)(our call + our raise)
Please note how the equation is broken down. In the first two components of the equation, we compute how much we win. The first part computes the amount we win when villain folds which is the current pot. The second part of the equation computes how much we win when villain calls and we win at showdown (this is our equity). Note that here, we can win the current pot and whatever villain must call. The third part of the equation computes how much we lose when villains calls and we lose at showdown (villain's equity). Note that here, we lose only what we put in from here on in. We don't lose ANY PART OF THE POT. It is important to understand that the pot is no longer ours...so we obviously can't lose it.

That's how winners play; we convince the other guy he's making all the right moves.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 10-07-2009, 11:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 how is this a semi-bluff when he'll assuredly never fold a better hand?

I didn't read any of your post but do you understand what a bluff is?
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amir is cool
Old 10-07-2009, 11:18 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
[21:38] <dranger> WTF HAPPENED WHEN I WENT TO BOOT CAMP
[21:40] <kiwiMark> THERE IS A NEW PRESIDENT OF THE UNITES STATES CALLED BARACK OBAMA AND HE'S NOT VERY WHITE
[21:40] <kiwiMark> THIS IS NOT A LEVEL.
 
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BooG690
Old 10-07-2009, 11:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, that's actually in there somewhere.

That's how winners play; we convince the other guy he's making all the right moves.
 
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bjsaust
Old 10-08-2009, 04:42 AM #5 (permalink)  
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This isnt so much a semi-bluff as it is a question of pot equity, odds and ranges. We have no reason to believe we have any FE when we shove here.
Just playing to improve.
 
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kmind
Old 10-08-2009, 05:00 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 Ok whew glad Spenda and Ben got everything I wanted to say out of the way.
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kiwiMark
Old 10-08-2009, 08:55 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Um, analysing a hand and discovering you've played it wrong is probably just as useful a skill to have as analysing a hand you played perfectly so you can knock one out in front of the mirror faster.

I'd really recommend people who aren't doing these sorts of calculations to play along with this thread, the point of this thread isn't go copy/paste that semibluff into your game it's to learn analysis, so don't worry that this has already been declared a crap semibluff.

On that note, it's really best if you try it on your own (and tbh he's already told you where to plug in the numbers, so it shouldn't be that hard) before reading anyone elses answers, such as my own:

1. Our equity against his calling range is 34%

2. 0 = (x)(13.30) + (1-x)(0.34)(13.30+16.70) - (1-x)(0.66)(5.05+16.70)
rearranged, I get that x is 23.8%. So that's how often we need him to fold here, for this to be breakeven.

Not sure if my maths is right or not.
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Outlaw
Old 10-08-2009, 09:18 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I think the hand is played fine?

I am personally never folding here.

I am guessing we have better than 50% equity against his raising range here if it includes any draws and/or worse Aces.
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bigspenda73
Old 10-08-2009, 10:06 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 interested in what people do with like 89dd here (in terms of both betting the flop and then proceeding against a raise). The hand, as played, is extremely standard and anyone saying otherwise is probably some silly nit who is not worth my time, but there are some hands in this spot that are worth analyzing.
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Cougar
Old 10-09-2009, 07:46 PM #10 (permalink)  
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100% agree original hand is EZ shovel, 89d is very interesting though...

4-way I probably check down flop although could see an argument for a semi-bluff raise.

If we have 89d and we raise and get re-raised as played, I probably just call flop (implied odds) looking to hit the flush. Hard for me to believe FE is high enough to shove over re-raise, am I way off base?
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