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Biglines
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02-18-2009, 09:31 AM
Post subject: Almost 10k hands at 10NL Stats Check Up
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 108
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My roll has just hit $500. Should I start taking shots at 25NL or should I build the roll a bit more at 10NL.
Your input on where I can improve based on the stats would be much appreciated. Clearly there is some sort of problem in the SB and I have started playing much tighter from that position recently to try and fix that.
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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so you are considering putting 5% of your roll in one table is fine as as you don't play scared... you're jumping from 10nl to 25nl so keep in mind this is a 250% increase instead of your standard 200% increase...
personally I'm waiting until I get to 700 before taking a shot up there... a lot of people say they havetl trouble movng up to that level
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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10k is not incredibly representative.
SB could mean a number of things... could just be variance.
What are you limping from EP?
BB stat is not sustainable. Expect to loose more there in the future.
No, you should not take shots. just a couple of thousand hands more and you'll be properly rolled.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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kfaess
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 556
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24 bb/100? you're crushing 10NL right now. If this is not just a hot streak then I think its fine to take a shot because you're clearly better than your opponents and they won't be that much different at 25NL.
But, I also agree with this:
Quote:
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No, you should not take shots. just a couple of thousand hands more and you'll be properly rolled.
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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Nothing wrong with taking shots when you have 20 BI's as long as you know when to quit. (5 BI maximum imo, but I'd probly drop back down after 3). Also, limp less UTG/EP. You should only be playing the top of your range from that position.
Everything else seems to be ok, but like oskar said, 10k isnt really that big of a sample.
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 833
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Heaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaater. U shud've included the All-in EV Line in the graph as well. 10k is quite a small sample. How many tables are you doing at a time?
Stop completing and playing so much from SB. Tighten up a bit more from EP. You should be 3betting more often IP than OOP. At these stakes, you can pretty much get away with 3betting only for value but widening your value range, again IP. OOP still have a tight 3bet value range and definitely don't 3bet bluff OOP as fold to 3bet % is pretty small at the micros.
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Biglines
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 108
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10k hands is a small sample, I think the high EP VPIP is largely due to variance. About 3k hands ago it was looking a lot better.
Should I be looking to up the PFR stats? Isnt 15 pretty low for a VPIP of 22? If I should be raising more, Im having a hard time working out what hands I should be doing it with.
Here is the graph will the all in EV line
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 833
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Biglines
I think the high EP VPIP is largely due to variance.
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?? What do you mean variance? Variance does not effect your EP VPIP in anyway. Are you talking about variance in the sense that you were getting good cards from EP in the last 3k hands and that is what changed your EP stats? If that is the case your VPIP and PFR should be much closer.
Are these your first tracked online hands? If so, do not expect the entire poker journey to be this way. Variance will set in and their will be times when your profit will be lower, much lower, than your ALL-IN EV. Just giving you a heads up.
Besides that, gratz on your achievement! Hopefully use these results as a boost of confidence if you do decide to move up and take your first shot.
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Biglines
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 108
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Ya I meant variance in terms of good cards.
I know all about variance, prior to getting HEM I ran good at 5NL, moved up to 10NL, built my roll up to $380 and then went down something like 18 buyins before recovering. Coincidentaly during that downswing I wasnt spending much time on FTR.
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dranger7070
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Wake up in the mornin feelin' like P. Diddy
Posts: 2,524
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In response to your asking if you should raise more than 15%.
IMO I wouldn't raise more, I would limp less. I mean, I know you are playing 6-max and all, but I'm doing the same thing and consistently (around 22-23k hands) running 17/11 (I need to raise more but thats for a different post :P), and it is a winning at a pretty decent rate. Then again, I AM playing 2nl, and obviously big jump between 2nl and 10nl lol.
But idk, just my two cents. Say you dropped 22% down to 20% and raised 16-17% of hands. I think that would be fairly solid. Even if you just dropped to 20% and raised the same 15% I think you would be fine.
Obviously the difference is negligible, but meh, what isn't in poker, amirite?  I wouldn't be too concerned with your VPIP/PFR, pretty standard and your range (limping or opening) is about 500x better than the average fish at your stakes, so no worries.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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I play more hands than you and kill bigger games. I probably run something like 28/20. Learn exploit the shit out of people when you have the button. Assrape anyone who likes to limp and see a cheap flop.
I would deposit another $200 and move up to 25NL.
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Sasquach991
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Rat Cheer
Posts: 1,012
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Just looking at the graph, it looks like you start losing 5-6 BIs about every 2k-2.5k hands. You are due to lose soon if the trend holds. If you move up then hit the losing streak is it variance or normal? Big difference in $50-$60 in losses and $125-$150.
Like zorrito, I'm waiting til I get at least $700.
Does look like you're spanking 10NL.
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