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on AllIn Expected Value - another daven rant

  
 
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daven
Old 07-22-2009, 09:41 AM     Post subject: on AllIn Expected Value - another daven rant #1 (permalink)  
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daven will become famous soon enough
 People who spend too much time complaining about running bad need to sort their shit out. If you're a true 3ptBB/100 winner then you can run bad on allin situations to the tune of 3buyins every 5k hands and you'll still be breakeven. Ponder on that.

Also ponder on what this complaining and focusing on the negative does to your poker headspace and your ability to make ability decisions and get your money in ahead, deep, and comfortably rather than playing scared of the beat that will sometimes (stats, right?) come

People who spend too much time complaining about running bad need to sort their shit out. If you're a true 3ptBB/100 winner then you can run bad on allin situations to the tune of 3buyins every 5k hands and you'll still be breakeven. Ponder on that. If you're a 5ptBB/100 winner (and this should definitely be a target at 25nl and below, hell, it's a target at all stakes - just gets nearer to very, very difficult the higher you move) then you can run bad on all-in situations 5buyins every 5k hands and still be breakeven.

So, you've just suffered a run of horrendous beats and you lost 3buyins during your last session and AIEV tells you it should have been a breakeven session. What does that tell you? it tells you that you most likely played poorly during the session. You played statistically breakeven poker. What are your options?

A bunch of you will go and post your badbeats in your op threads or here, results included. Then complain about being unlucky. Then start playing again tomorrow. Without even the smallest piece of true session review. If you do post these hands, then ffs read the comments on the lines you took - chances are you played the hand badly as well as being unlucky. Then realise that these were hands that you probably thought you played well. Then realise that you probably butchered most of the VPIP=True hands you played during the session. Review, get better. Stop moaning.

What brought this on?
I'm 14 bi behind AI EV at 50nl this month, and still in the black.
I'm 3bi behind AI EV at 100nl so far this month, and still in the black.

This is even after the subtle (and not so subtle Cool) tilt induced by the beats. I was playing and running bad. And it was a self-perpetuating cycle.

Just play better y'all.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Jack Sawyer
Old 07-22-2009, 09:47 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 See, I'm running bad! I got a nice multicolored graph showing just this! The poker gods are against me! I must sacrifice more lambs!


Poker graphs have an unwanted effect on my mood, and this affects my "game" every time, sometimes more than at other times. I have given up on these altogether.
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spoonitnow
Old 07-22-2009, 03:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Someone sucks at copy and paste :P
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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Old 07-22-2009, 03:17 PM #4 (permalink)  
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yeah but I ran bad 10 BI below expectation over 4K hands
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nish81
Old 07-22-2009, 05:31 PM #5 (permalink)  
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nish81
I have no AIEV graph
<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

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JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 07-22-2009, 06:47 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I run permenantly above AIEV so ha.

edit: good post btw
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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