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whopper1967
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11-14-2007, 05:11 AM
Post subject: all in bets against nut flush draws
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 10
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i know this is a generalized question,but i was wondering,since this happens alot it seems..if i am heads up with a guy and he bets all in,would you call the bet with a nut flush draw,or a straight nut flush draw,or a pair with a nut flush draw...i would think the odds woulod justify the straight flush draws,but i wasnt sure,and the nut flush draw alone confuses me more,i dont see it since the flush is 4-1 with 2 to 1 pot odds,but i just wanted to make sure.....thanks in advance..
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Download pokerstove (search google) and try running a couple hands thru it with estimates of what you put the villains range of hands on. If you haven't seen this done before check out Big Spendas videos here. He uses pokerstove a lot at the end of them. Every situation is different but it will help you identify the differences.
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whopper1967
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 10
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ok..thanks a bunch
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naturalassassin
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11-14-2007, 07:40 AM
Post subject: Re: all in bets against nut flush draws
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#4 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Canada
Posts: 59
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by whopper1967
i know this is a generalized question,but i was wondering,since this happens alot it seems..if i am heads up with a guy and he bets all in,would you call the bet with a nut flush draw,or a straight nut flush draw,or a pair with a nut flush draw...i would think the odds woulod justify the straight flush draws,but i wasnt sure,and the nut flush draw alone confuses me more,i dont see it since the flush is 4-1 with 2 to 1 pot odds,but i just wanted to make sure.....thanks in advance..
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You're odds are 1.9 to 1 on the flop and 4.1 to 1 on the turn. Don't fortget that if you think he has only top pair or pockets... you have 3 more outs if you include your ace and don't put your opponent on one.
If his all in is more than the pot you should fold. If it's the pot then I usually fold becuase I compensate with my odds by assuming someone has folded 1 or 2 of my outs. A lot of people would call because they can break even in the long run.
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Clar17y
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Getting coolered.
Posts: 142
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With a straight flush draw i would go all in most probably because of the build up to the all-in leaving me with great odds to call.
Again with a flush draw sometimes people will call because they re-raised a c-bet on the flop and they figure the price is good enough.
If opp has more than the pot and pushes i won't call unless i have at least 1 over and the flush draw, even then i'd probably not. If i have a pair and a flush draw with an over i'd call and if i had something like A K on a T82 board i'd be like  (Insta call)
Clar
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BankItDrew
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11-14-2007, 09:32 PM
Post subject: Re: all in bets against nut flush draws
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#6 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by naturalassassin
If his all in is more than the pot you should fold. If it's the pot then I usually fold becuase I compensate with my odds by assuming someone has folded 1 or 2 of my outs.
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Do you also consider the hands where everyone at the table did not hold any of your outs? No, of course not. Do not consider folded outs or outs held by opponents because they are considered 'unknowns.'
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naturalassassin
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11-14-2007, 11:49 PM
Post subject: Re: all in bets against nut flush draws
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#7 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Canada
Posts: 59
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Quote:
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Originally Posted by naturalassassin
If his all in is more than the pot you should fold. If it's the pot then I usually fold becuase I compensate with my odds by assuming someone has folded 1 or 2 of my outs.
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Do you also consider the hands where everyone at the table did not hold any of your outs? No, of course not. Do not consider folded outs or outs held by opponents because they are considered 'unknowns.' |
In a nine handed table and someone pushes all in. You're probably up against a made hand. Even if the folded cards are unknowns... you don't have a made hand and you need to consider the fact that with 9 diamonds in the deck someone had one and folded it. If I drew 16 cards from a deck with 9 diamonds. I'd lay 10 to one odds that one is a diamond. In the long run every 6th or so card would be a diamond.
If my odds were cut down to maybe 6 outs I wouldn't compensate. With more outs and players I compensate. It makes sense to me.
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bluelips
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11-15-2007, 01:19 AM
Post subject: Re: all in bets against nut flush draws
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#8 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5
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[quote="naturalassassin"]
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Quote:
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Originally Posted by naturalassassin
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. It makes sense to me. |
It sure didn't make sense to me
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NLHE lahooozaher
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 916
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you lack logic. think about it.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher
you lack logic. think about it. |
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whopper1967
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 10
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wow ..thanks for the replies folks...i didnt expect sso many so fast.i guess basically what im saying is,if you know your are against a made hand,i think there still are times it is a good call to draw heads up,i dont think from the odds i have seen and what i gather that a nut flush draw would be a good one,since it is about 4-1,but i would think that a nut open ended straight flush draw or a nut flush with 2 overcards would be a fair call..i know you are still and underdog,but i believe only slightly.this situation comes up very often for me.basically we wind up heads up and i have the draw....maybe im just overthinking it,because if the villian is all in,there would be no implied odds in that case.so i guess if pot odds dont dictate a call,i should fold....hmm....a minute to learn...a lifetime to master.
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naturalassassin
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Canada
Posts: 59
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If you draw 16 cards from a shuffled deck with nine diamonds, and one isn't a diamond I'll admit I'm wrong. Anyone wanna bet?
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JL
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,095
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by naturalassassin
If you draw 16 cards from a shuffled deck with nine diamonds, and one isn't a diamond I'll admit I'm wrong. Anyone wanna bet?
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You're logic is flawed.
Okay let's assume we have only 6 outs because it's likely that 3 diamonds have been folded.
Normally on the flop we would say that we have 9 outs to a flush draw, which we divide by 47 (the number of cards left in the deck).
So 9/47 = .1915 or 19.15% chance to hit on the turn.
Now, according to your logic we may have only 6 outs.
BUT, if you take away 16 more cards then we are left with 31 cards.
So 6/31 = .1935 or 19.35% chance to hit on the turn.
Obviously, it's impossible to know how many diamonds have been folded. This is why we don't count folded cards in our calculations...unless you can see them.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JL
Quote:
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Originally Posted by naturalassassin
If you draw 16 cards from a shuffled deck with nine diamonds, and one isn't a diamond I'll admit I'm wrong. Anyone wanna bet?
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You're logic is flawed.
Okay let's assume we have only 6 outs because it's likely that 3 diamonds have been folded.
Normally on the flop we would say that we have 9 outs to a flush draw, which we divide by 47 (the number of cards left in the deck).
So 9/47 = .1915 or 19.15% chance to hit on the turn.
Now, according to your logic we may have only 6 outs.
BUT, if you take away 16 more cards then we are left with 31 cards.
So 6/31 = .1935 or 19.35% chance to hit on the turn.
Obviously, it's impossible to know how many diamonds have been folded. This is why we don't count folded cards in our calculations...unless you can see them. |
Great post JL. I was going to post almost the exact same thing. How can you account for the outs getting mucked when doing the math and not account for the non outs? It's flawed reasoning.
Assassin? Can you tell us about yourself? Where do you play? What stakes? And what's the BR at these days? Just so we can get an idea of how well your advice is working. If it's working for you, I can surely try something different.
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sejje
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 883
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
Assassin? Can you tell us about yourself? Where do you play? What stakes? And what's the BR at these days? Just so we can get an idea of how well your advice is working. If it's working for you, I can surely try something different.
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Why does it always go there? What are you going to do, point and laugh at the stakes he's playing?
It doesn't matter where he's from or how he plays. His advice is wrong, it's clear to everyone who knows anything, and many people have already corrected him. What more are you trying to gain?
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