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bhaley66
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08-01-2010, 06:53 AM
Post subject: AKs vs shove
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: washington
Posts: 150
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Villain is 41/10 over 22 hands.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from
FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($3.45)
UTG ($1.79)
MP1 ($1.12)
Hero (MP2) ($6.33)
CO ($5.34)
Button ($0.87)
SB ($0.80)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K , A
UTG bets $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises $0.30, 3 folds, BB raises $3.43 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero???
Total pot: $0.71
I put his range at JJ+, AQ+, KQ+. Just because I have seen it done so many times, but I feel that may be too wide? With that stove says I have ~58%.
Are there any situations where I should call this? I feel like I would have a hard time calling this even if I seen him shove preflop w/crap before... I would think this is a std fold, however I am wrong a lot in that assumption.
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Theres plenty of situations.
One cool way of seeing if u can call is to determine what he needs to have in order to make a call break even.
Like, you need about 44% equity against his range to call this. If you dont know why, go back to spoon's 'how to analyze calling an all in".
if the BB only has aces, we're 12% to win. Nope, that doesnt work.
if the BB only has KK+, we're 23% to win. Nope, cant call here either.
...
...
...
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if the BB only has 'xxxxxxx', we're >44% to win.
Ok sweet. So if we're guaranteed that he has a range that is wider than what you found xxxxx to be, then we can call and not worry about it. But if we're not even sure he has this range, we should probably just fold..because he has to have all these hands for it to just be breakeven and variance is gonna kick us in the ass anyway.
One thing of importance is how often you think villain 4bets. Over 22 hands, he's likely not to have done this yet and i fold and not think much about it.
However...if hes been crazy and 4bets and 3bets and open shoves and thats all he does (unlikely since hes only raises twice according to the stats) its a pretty easy call.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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bhaley66
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: washington
Posts: 150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Theres plenty of situations.
One cool way of seeing if u can call is to determine what he needs to have in order to make a call break even.
Like, you need about 44% equity against his range to call this. If you dont know why, go back to spoon's 'how to analyze calling an all in".
if the BB only has aces, we're 12% to win. Nope, that doesnt work.
if the BB only has KK+, we're 23% to win. Nope, cant call here either.
...
...
...
...
if the BB only has 'xxxxxxx', we're >44% to win.
Ok sweet. So if we're guaranteed that he has a range that is wider than what you found xxxxx to be, then we can call and not worry about it. But if we're not even sure he has this range, we should probably just fold..because he has to have all these hands for it to just be breakeven and variance is gonna kick us in the ass anyway.
One thing of importance is how often you think villain 4bets. Over 22 hands, he's likely not to have done this yet and i fold and not think much about it.
However...if hes been crazy and 4bets and 3bets and open shoves and thats all he does (unlikely since hes only raises twice according to the stats) its a pretty easy call.
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I believe this is why I do not yet feel comfortable doing so. I understand the math, but I definitely am not the best at putting people on ranges... YET!!!
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Hoopy
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Riverballs
Posts: 777
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You need 44.8% equity to make this call so mess about with stove to see what kind of range he needs to have. Fwiw I wouldn't assume he has KQ in this spot until you have better reads.
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bhaley66
I believe this is why I do not yet feel comfortable doing so. I understand the math, but I definitely am not the best at putting people on ranges... YET!!!
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This exercise helps develop putting ppl on ranges. If he can ever have wider than xxxxx then you can call because you'll show a profit. Its up to you to determine if he can or cant....but knowing the point where calling becomes boarderline is a huge plus.
Like, if you can put A7o in his range here...then its a snap call. Because this sort of implies that he has alot of other worse aces which make us have alot of equity.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bhaley66
I believe this is why I do not yet feel comfortable doing so. I understand the math, but I definitely am not the best at putting people on ranges... YET!!!
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Then practice more.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Snap fold
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bhaley66
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: washington
Posts: 150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Then practice more.
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Thats what I'm doin spoon. ldo...
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Icanhastreebet
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: In the big blind, cold calling your opens, making you tilt.
Posts: 994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
Snap fold
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Pretty sure hero is playing <24tables so he can actually think through each of his decisions.
Think for a little bit then fold. Kthx
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bhaley66
Thats what I'm doin spoon. ldo...
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Duh.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Icanhastreebet
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: In the big blind, cold calling your opens, making you tilt.
Posts: 994
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Also note his opening range UTG, 3bing might not be optimal
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet
Pretty sure hero is playing <24tables so he can actually think through each of his decisions.
Think for a little bit then fold. Kthx
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I don't think he said he was playing 24 tables and he is thinking before he folds.. why else would he post here?
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Icanhastreebet
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: In the big blind, cold calling your opens, making you tilt.
Posts: 994
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Outlaw
I don't think he said he was playing 24 tables and he is thinking before he folds.. why else would he post here?
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you obviously missed my point entirely
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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No I got your point, you obviously think that someone playing 24 tables can't think through decisions. Just because your mind doesn't work fast enough, don't assume everyone's doesn't.
I don't care if you are playing 1 table, if you reraise an UTG raise and then a blind shoves all in for 175 bbs, without reads I'm pretty sure its a snap fold in any galaxy.
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Icanhastreebet
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: In the big blind, cold calling your opens, making you tilt.
Posts: 994
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I'm also pretty sure you should ALWAYS put your opponents on a range even before you fold, this is what we call trying to improve. Although someone 24tabling 25NL for the last 3years probably can't comprehend this fact.
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